Place Your Bets: Intrade Starts Palin Market

Online prediction market Intrade has launched a contract on the probability of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin being dropped as John McCain ’s running mate ahead of the November presidential election. Palin was named Friday as the Republican VP choice, surprising many political pundits, though she had emerged as the frontrunner on Intrade’s own VP market. The nascent market put the probability of her withdrawal from the contest at 15% today, in the wake of news that the social conservative’s 17-year old daughter is pregnant. The news came as little-known Gov. Palin and her family are undergoing their first heavy scrutiny from the national press. The pick has galvanized the party’s previously lackluster religious base, and jump-started Internet fund raising. But Sen. McCain also is drawing criticism, including from some Republicans, for choosing a politician with no national experience, and some Republicans are worried the choice could backfire. – Doug Cameron  ... (link)