Political Perceptions: Barack Obama, Needing a Convention ‘Bump’

Sen. Barack Obama now is virtually even with Sen. John McCain in national polls—including a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey—but Andrew Romano of Newsweek suggests that the more important set of poll readings is yet to come. “The important thing to watch is what happens in the polls after the conventions,” he writes. That, at least, is the view Tom Holbrook , professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and author of “Do Campaigns Matter?,” who Romano interviews at length on the question. Holbrook says that pre-convention polls matter “because they have a lot to do with what happens in the polls after the conventions–and that, in turn, could affect what happens at the polls in November.” But, Holbrook says, watch for the post-convention “bump” in the polls as an important indicator. “For instance, this year Barack Obama looks like he’s ahead, on average, by two or three percentage points. But if you think about the kind of year this ... (link)