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Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln, who is up for a tough re-election fight next year, really doesn't have any good choices when it comes to the Democrats' health care reform bill. On the one hand, the measure has become unpopular in her state, and Arkansas -- which was not so long ago considered ...
Congress
Health care
Blanche Lincoln
Mark Blumenthal links to Rush Limbaugh accusing Gallup of "upping the sample to black Americans to keep [Obama] up at 50%" in the polls. (For the context, see the last paragraph of the transcript .) Frank Newport of Gallup responds here . Newport denies it all, but he would, wouldn't he? ...
White House
Gallup Poll
Rush Limbaugh
Barack Obama
fivethirtyeight.com - 6 hours ago
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fivethirtyeight.com —
Having underestimated the resilience of the public option
before, I'm naturally a bit reluctant to do so
again. But with three or four Senators threatening to filibuster a bill that contains a public option, it's time for a review of the landscape. ...
(more)
Is The Public Option Un-Un-Dead?
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Firedoglake
found this 6 hours agofound this
fivethirtyeight.com - 12 hours ago
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fivethirtyeight.com —
Mostly just stealing someone else's copy here --
in this case, Politico's : Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.)
said she’d deliver the deciding vote to push forward with a sweeping health reform plan in the Senate Saturday, ending days of speculation over ...
(more)
Lincoln To Vote for Motion to Proceed, But Threatens ...
It's the global warming scandal of the century , says Michelle Malkin! The exposure of the warmist conspiracy , says Andrew Bolt! The final nail in the coffin of anthropogenic global warming , bleats James Delingpole! A stunning tour de force -- four stars , says Leonard Maltin! OK, so that last ...
World
Global Warming
![It's [Still] The Economy, Dumbass](http://images.dailyradar.com/media/uploads/beltway/story_preview/2009/11/20/it_s_still_the_economy_dumbass.png)
fivethirtyeight.com - 2 days ago
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fivethirtyeight.com —
All right -- this is my favorite graph
in quite some time. Let's show the picture first
and ask questions later. What we have is a comparison of Barack Obama's approval ratings on the economy to his approval ratings overall. It includes all polls in ...
(more)
It's [Still] The Economy, Dumbass
How can Democrats expect to get 60 votes for their health care bill in the Senate when it barely garnered a majority in the House? It's a good question that has a number of good answers. For instance: the Senate's bill is more moderate than the House's. And the 60-vote threshold applies only to ...
Congress
Democratic National Committee
Blanche Lincoln
Health care
fivethirtyeight.com - 2 days ago
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fivethirtyeight.com —
The 2010 Senate contests, I submit, will tell
us more than either the House or gubernatorial results
next year about the relative status of the two parties and their competitiveness. Why? For one, historically the president's party loses an average of ...
(more)
Senate Handicapping One Year Out
The rhetorical link between sports and politics in the U.S. has been widely documented , with sports providing a treasure trove of analogies, quotes and other trinkets for politicians. At the same time, pundits have long enjoyed the usage of sport as a foil for political commentary. In many ...
World
International Monetary Fund
Nate, Daniel, and I write : Lawmakers' support for or opposition to reform generally has less to do with the views of their constituents and more to do with the issue of presidential popularity. . . . For instance, Senator Blanche Lincoln, a Democrat who has been a less-than-strong supporter of ...
Congress
Health care
Blanche Lincoln
I had hoped to respond to Nate's initial post explaining our Sarah Palin bet before he wrote a second one . But I guess I'll just have to write a rejoinder to both. Let me preface the following by conceding that many of Nate's arguments are quite persuasive. Most compelling is his observation ...
White House
Sarah Palin
Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
Barack Obama
fivethirtyeight.com - 4 days ago
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fivethirtyeight.com —
1. Enthusiasm. People tend to see electorate through
a one-dimensional lens, in which a fixed number of
voters are trying to decide between two or more candidates. But that's not really how politics works, especially in primaries. Rather, the ...
(more)
10 Reasons That Sarah Palin Could Win the Republican ...
Continuing a series of posts handicapping the 2010 elections one year out—made some general observations here , did some House handicapping here —I’ll turn next to governors races, the vast majority of which are held in midterm cycles. The added significance of the 2010 midterm is that the ...
White House
Tim Pawlenty
Sarah Palin
fivethirtyeight.com - 5 days ago
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fivethirtyeight.com —
As you may know, 538 co-captain Tom Schaller
and I have made a couple of bets regarding
whether Sarah Palin will run for and win the 2012 Republican nomination for the Presidency. I’ve got the Palin side of both wagers: even money that she’ll run for ...
(more)
Why Palin Will Run for President in 2012
-- Recruitment efforts are becoming seriously problematic for the Democrats. Take North Carolina, for instance, where former State Senator Cal Cunningham now says he won't run to challenge Richard Burr , the latest in a long succession of Democrats to do so. Democrats still have a reasonably ...
Congress
fivethirtyeight.com - 6 days ago
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fivethirtyeight.com —
Jonathan Rodden and Jowei Chen argue that Democrats
are underrepresented in Congress and state legislatures because they
tend to live in high-density areas. Geographically-compact districting plans will tend to pack Democratic voters into districts ...
(more)
Why Compact, Contiguous Districts are Bad for the Democrats
fivethirtyeight.com - 5 days ago
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fivethirtyeight.com —
Matthew Yglesias remarks that, when staking out positions,
congressmembers are not very strongly constrained by the ideologies
of their constituents. Wow, that was a lot of big words. What I meant to say was: Congressmembers and Senators can pretty ...
(more)
Politicians Have a Lot of Leeway in How They Vote
fivethirtyeight.com - 7 days ago
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fivethirtyeight.com —
Yesterday, I had the opportunity to speak with
a couple of engineers from Google who are working
on a product known as Google Flu Trends" . This is a very simple, yet elegant and important application of what might be termed predictive analytics; if ...
(more)
How the Swine Flu Has Spread
fivethirtyeight.com - 10 days ago
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fivethirtyeight.com —
A Gallup poll released yesterday showed the Republicans
with a 4-point lead on the House generic ballot
-- a reversal from October, when the Democrats had maintained a 2-point lead. Making matters worse for Democrats, this was a poll of registered ...
(more)
Time for Dems to Panic?
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AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth
found this 10 days agofound this
fivethirtyeight.com - 7 days ago
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fivethirtyeight.com —
Much of my summer was spent on a
consulting project that I did in conjunction with ESPN,
in which I helped them a design a soccer ratings system known as the Soccer Power Index (SPI). SPI launched today and we're pretty proud of the results, which ...
(more)
For the Soccer Fans Among You
