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Shadows of 2000
The Moderate Voice — Even today, I remember — with a dull shiver skipping down my spine — the aftermath of the 2000 presidential election. The persistent questions about who really won. The nagging uncertainty about the integrity of our electoral system. The recounts. The protests. The finger-pointing. If Nate Silver’s predictive models are right, get ready for a much more contentious and disconcerting scenario in 2008. As if the country’s potential economic collapse weren’t enough to keep us awake at night … ...

Polling Tidbits: Sarah Palin Now Least Popular of the Big Four
MoJo Blog Posts: mojo — ... In other numbers-related news, the quant geeks over at FiveThirtyEight.com report that the possibility of a 269-269 electoral tie is climbing. The reason is relatively simple: the election is nearing but the race is still close in key states, meaning that the likelihood of one of the two candidates winning in a blowout is going down. FiveThirtyEight points to one tie scenario above all others: ...

Electoral College Tie: McCain 269, Obama 269
Outside The Beltway | OTB — ... Nate Silver has outlined the scenario’s by which “the country’s worst nightmare” — but political pundits’ dream — of an Electoral College tie could take place.  He notes that, as we get closer to the election without either candidate pulling away, the odds get greater. The far most likely 269-269 scenario:“Barack Obama wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, but loses New Hampshire.”  Not only did this happen almost every time that there was a tie in his simulations but “we presently have Obama winning precisely the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and ...

What’s Up With West Virginia?
Firedoglake — ... edge talking about the kitchen table issues.  And by working her butt off campaigning here in person.   Obama needs more retail politics here.  Soon.  I've said that to Democratic party officials.  Carnacki's been hitting it, too. Because we are a "get to know you" kind of state, Obama's been asked when he'll campaign here.  A lot -- including in a recent Obama interview with a local Huntington station.  In the current electoral map environment, no state can be taken for granted. (hint, hint) ...

Electoral Tie a Nightmare for Democracy
Politics Daily — ... As recently as September 19, election stats guru Nate Silver projected the odds of a tie at 3.2 percent. With Obama surging in battleground polling, the number of scenarios that would produce a tie has dwindled. Silver recently looked at ...

A Slight Chance of Obamaha: How One Red State Electoral Vote Could Make the Difference
BuzzFlash.org - Progressive News and Commentary with an Attitude | Fight Ignorance: Read BuzzFlash — ... the possibility has increased with the changing electoral picture. Now, the possibility increased to a whopping 3.2 percent. The mostly likely scenario for a tie, according to Silver, is if Obama wins the same states John Kerry won in 2004, as well as Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, but loses New Hampshire. Obama's campaign has come up with 19 plausible split situations. But if that should come to pass, and Obama turns Omaha blue, the score will be 270-269, Obama. The campaign opened up a second office in Omaha today to support the 15 paid staffers, as well as volunteers, ...