Leave a Comment

Hugh Hewitt: "A Joe Of His Own?"
Townhall.com Blog's TownHall Blog — ... I'll leave it to someone else to figure out when the country last had two tickets composed of four senators, but McCain backers hoping for a McCain presidency should look at ElectionProjection's map: [image] ...

Hugh Hewitt: "A Joe Of His Own?"
Hugh Hewitt's TownHall Blog — ... I'll leave it to someone else to figure out when the country last had two tickets composed of four senators, but McCain backers hoping for a McCain presidency should look at ElectionProjection's map: [image] ...

Reading Rasmussen
Vodkapundit — ... for a embiggened view.) Here’s what interesting about Rasmussen’s results. McCain has only two states, worth 47 EC votes, in the “leans” column. Those are places where he needs to play defense, assuming that “likely GOP” states (135 ECV) are relatively safe from attack. Obama has six states, with a total of 66 ECV he needs to defend. And only 50 “likely Dem” votes to count on. The Democrats have many more “safe” votes — 143 to 65. But they have more vulnerabilities, too. UPDATE : Election Projection (sorry, no permalink, good while supplies last) sees Obama vulnerable in ...

Interesting links
Sister Toldjah — ... himself and Obama from 13 points to 5 - in New York. I’m realistic and realize it’s an extreme longshot for Mc to win either of those two states, but the numbers show just how much the dynamics of this race has changed over the last month as the issues and the candidates take shape. For more polling numbers, including those in key battleground states like Colorado, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, bookmark these links: RCP, Election Projection, and Electoral Vote ...

Memo To McCain: She’s Checking The Sheet Music
The Moderate Voice — ... close. As I have previously written, the House and the Senate are already a done deal. The GOP is only hoping to limit their losses and would be celebrating if they managed to lose 5 Senate seats and 10 House seats. On the Presidential front things had looked good or at least winnable until recently but over the last week or so things have collapsed badly. Virtually every web site tracking the electoral college shows a heavy Obama lead. Election Projection has it at 364-174 for Obama. ElectoralVote.com has it ...

Big Media Websites Can't Admit Obama Is Over 270
Open Left - Front Page — Here are the latest electoral projections from independent, small media electoral forecasting websites: Election Projection: Obama 364-174 Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 349, McCain 174, 15 tied Fivethirtyeight: Obama 347.6-190.4 McCain Pollster.com: Obama 320, McCain 158, Toss-up 60 Real Clear Politics: Obama 277, McCain 158, Toss-up 103 There are many more, but I'll stop there. The key point is that all small media election projection websites, including the Republican Election Projection and Real Clear Politics, have Obama over ...

Viking Pundit — Something to post - Maybe it is time to turn this blog into an all-music site. I can't bear to write about the fiscal mess we're in, my 401(k), the groundswell election coming, Paul Krugman , or the collapse of the Red Sox . [image] Anyway! Driving home, I heard Mama Cass's version of " Make your own kind of music " and the very first thing that popped into my head was Desmond on "Lost." That's a good song. New episodes of "Lost" start early next year. Oh, and today I bought a one-burner Coleman propane stove at Wal-Mart. So I got that goin' ...

Major Media EC Maps Ticking Over 270
Open Left - Front Page — Chris' note that the big media sites were refusing to acknowledge Obama being above 270 EC votes by any reasonable polling analysis methodology was an important point.  For whatever reason, reality is setting in with most of them, and they are being forced to update with Obama being over 270.   First, the non-corporate media projection sites updated counts: Election Projection: Obama 364-174 Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 364, McCain 171, 3 tied Fivethirtyeight: Obama 344-194 McCain Pollster.com: Obama 313, McCain 157, ...

THE GOP AND THE ‘DEAD PARROT’ SCENARIO
Right Wing Nut House — ... looks even bleaker. Three seemingly safe incumbents are fighting for their political lives including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Georgia’s Saxbe Chambliss, and Roger Wicker of Mississippi who won the special election to fill Trent Lott’s seat. All three are “Weak GOP Holds” at the moment. if you include the 8 GOP seats that are now listed as “Strong Democrat Gains,” you have the Dems with a net gain of 11 seats and the loss of the filibuster. (If you haven’t subscribed to Election Projection , I strongly urge you to do so. Caesar is top notch and non-partisan.) ...

The Shifting Polls
PoliGazette — ... and ElectoralProjection.  These sites take several polls over a number of days and then average them to give something of a more accurate number.  I’m unsure about the latter two, but Pollster pretty much averages every poll while RCP and E-V leave out the partisan polls.  That’s why Pollster has a state like Arizona and Ohio lightly in McCain and Obama’s columns, while RCP and E-V have them as swing states (these are the “barely” states on E-V). ...

Viking Pundit — Monday, November 03, 2008 I'm bringing you a poll that's true, so get ready, get ready - Real Clear Politics: " Fifteen races to watch on election day ." Of course, always keep your browser ready for Election Projection . posted by Eric at 10:52 PM Comments: Post a Comment HOME

Taltos’s Wager
Dean's World — ... Update: Continuing to read the linked article, I see he has some very harsh words for Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com. I’ve got some quibbles with 538’s methodology that I’ve discussed in previous posts, but despite Silver’s acknowledged sympathies for Obama I think he’s been doing a careful job and has been trying to fairly predict the election. Note that Scott Elliot’s election projection site (based on a different, independently-developed poll aggreggation model) has a very similar map, and Elliot is a conservative ...