Vice-President: Obama Must Be Looking At Kaine
Open Left - Front Page — ... , given that Obama has never trailed in Iowa since he announced his campaign, and has led in every single poll of every single Kerry state for two months, it is possible that selecting Kaine would serve as electoral checkmate on McCain. ...

Polling update: 8/12
Daily Kos — ... No one outside of Ras has polled this state for a while, but the composite feels about right: Obama 47.3, McCain 41.3. The Washington Post's Chris Cizzilla wrote recently that Republicans had written off Iowa, but these numbers suggest that it's still quite competitive.  And in June and July, the McCain campaign dumped nearly $1 million in advertising in the state (a quarter million more than Obama). I don't think anyone is writing off the state just yet. ...

Polls, the Presidential Race, and the Winnowing of the Field
Sound Politics — ... contest, but every federal election year since 2000 seems to feature some political brawl for a federal office in the land of Sin City. Why should this year be any different? Obama pick-up opportunities : New Mexico and Iowa look like very good bets to flip. That's little surprise perhaps given that they were two of the closest contests in 2004 and among the last states to be declared for a candidate on Election Night. A good argument can be made for McCain cutting bait in the Hawkeye State right now given other options worthy of attention. Purple state watch : Virginia ...

Colorado Is The Tipping Point
Open Left - Front Page — ... Additionally, McCain has never even sniffed the lead in Iowa, a state that Bush won in 2004 (but Gore won in 2000). Even after the Republican convention, Obama held a twelve-point lead in the state according to the latest Des Moines Register poll. If McCain is that far behind in Iowa even when he is at his peak nationally, then there is simply no chance that McCain will win Iowa. So, toss another seven electoral votes into Obama's column, putting him at 259 and only 11 away from victory. ...

A Different Look At The Swing States
Open Left - Front Page — ... 49.0% 46.5% +2.5% 222 Minnesota 10 47.0% 45.7% +1.3% 232 Iowa 7 44.8% 44.8% Even 239 ...

Polling update, this week's results
Daily Kos — ... help boost Obama's numbers in the metric. Hold these states, and Obama needs 18 more for victory. Here are the tightest battleground states, with polls conducted this week:       CO(9) FL(27) IA(7) IN(11) NM(5) NV(5) NC(15) OH(20) VA(13) Comp: O+1.2  M4.1  O+9.9 M+2.5 O+5.4 M+2.9  M+5.4  M+2.4   ...

McCain forced to defend Indiana
Daily Kos — ... . An isolated incident? Given that Obama has a 10-point blowout lead in the Pollster.com composite, it would make sense for McCain to abandon the state and its seven electoral votes. ...

Iowa & The Race Question
Oliver Willis — ... Iowa is a state with a 95% white population. It went for Bush by 1%. And yet, Sen. Obama has consistently been double digits ahead of Sen. McCain there (and he beat Sen. Clinton and Sen. Edwards in the caucuses, of course). ...

SSP's Competitive House Race Ratings (9/24/08)
Swing State Project — ... While incumbent Rep. Tom Latham has to be considered favored in his bid for re-election at this point, at a PVI of D+0.4, this district is prime swing territory, and recent polls are showing a rather stark Obama surge in Iowa. Democrat Becky Greenwald's fundraising could be stronger, but between her recent EMILY's List endorsement and the state's blue turn, we feel that there's an outside chance of something interesting developing here. ...

Poll roundup
Daily Kos — ... Hold these states, and Obama needs 18 more for victory, 22 if McCain steals away New Hampshire. Here are the tightest battleground states, with polls conducted this week:       CO(9) FL(27) IA(7) IN(11) NM(5) NV(5) NC(15) OH(20) VA(13) Comp: O+3.7 M+3.4  O+10  M+2.5  O+6.2 M+1.5 M+3.3  M+2.9   ...

Poll roundup: 9/26
Daily Kos — ... And while ARG is a shitty pollster, Quinnipiac is not, so there is reason to be concerned about Minnesota. Here are the closest Bush states, with this week's polling;       CO(9) FL(27) IA(7) MO(11) NM(5) NV(5) NC(15) OH(20) VA(13) Comp: O+3.7 M+3.4  O+10  M+5.1  O+6.2 M+1.5 M+2.5  M+2.8   ...

Early Morning Swim
Firedoglake — ... bill fails -- heckuva job, McSame. The result -- the biggest single point drop on Wall Street evah! Now's not the time for blame -- but it's Obama's fault. Oh, and it's also Pelosi's fault. And for once, this hasn't been good for the GOP. I don't think "journalism" means what McSame thinks it means. Wingnuts worried about the Palin-Biden debate. McSame's in IA; Obama's in NV.

Calling It Like I See It
Sound Politics — ... I lamented a recent McCain campaign appearance in Iowa - a state that is clearly long gone in this election cycle. Later, GOP guru Mike Murphy ...

Obama's Easy Path To 270
Open Left - Front Page — ... 55 52.7% 39.3% +13.4% 174 Oregon 7 52.3% 40.3% +12.0% 181 Iowa 7 52.3% 41.0% +11.3% 188 ...

Presidential Forecast 10/9: Hehehehe--Wipeout
Open Left - Front Page — ... 4 65.5% 29.5% +36.0% 2 Illinois 21 55.0% 37.7% +17.3% 3 Iowa 7 52.3% 41.0% +11.3% 3 ...

At McCain event, Iowa pastor apparently wants Jesus to honor his own name by defeating Obama
AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth — Iowa Independent liveblogged McCain's campaign event in Davenport, Iowa. Why McCain is campaigning in Iowa defies explanation. That state is out of his grasp, but hey, if the brain trust at McCain HQ wants him there, who are we to argue? Anyway, check out the disturbing ...

Presidential Forecast 10/12: 23 Days To Go
Open Left - Front Page — ... 4 65.5% 29.5% +36.0% 2 Illinois 21 55.0% 37.7% +17.3% 3 Iowa 7 53.3% 41.0% +12.3% 3 ...

Presidential Forecast 10/13: 22 Days To Go
Open Left - Front Page — ... 4 65.5% 29.5% +36.0% 2 Illinois 21 55.0% 37.7% +17.3% 3 Iowa 7 53.3% 41.0% +12.3% 3 ...

Presidential Forecast 10/15: 20 Days Left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 4 65.5% 29.5% +36.0% 2 Illinois 21 55.0% 37.3% +17.7% 3 Iowa 7 53.3% 41.0% +12.3% 3 ...

Presidential Forecast 10/17: 18 Days Left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 4 65.5% 29.5% +36.0% 2 Illinois 21 55.0% 37.3% +17.7% 3 Iowa 7 53.3% 41.0% +12.3% 3 ...

Presidential Forecast, 10/19: 16 days left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 51.7% 39.7% +12.0% 233 Michigan 17 51.3% 39.0% +12.3% 218 Iowa 7 53.3% 41.0% +12.3% 201 ...

Paul Jenkins: McCain: They Don't Like Him, They Really Don't Like Him
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com — ... in decades; Iowa, where he is so utterly disliked that he is sure to lose the state Bush won in 2004; in New Hampshire, his political home away from home (where he is nonetheless ...

Read The Fine Print On Big Campaign Moves
Open Left - Front Page — ... which ones he is not: The change of plans means Obama will scrap scheduled rallies Thursday in Des Moines, Iowa, and Madison, Wisc. He will instead head to Indianapolis, Ind., for a morning event, leave for Hawaii and return to the campaign trail Saturday. Obama is canceling trips to Iowa and Wisconsin, two states that are already in the bag. Obama leads by 8, 12, 15, 17, 10, 10 and 10 according to the last seven polling firms in Wisconsin. In Iowa, he leads by double-digits, and by over 30% among those who have already voted. ...

McCain in Disarray, Iowa Edition
Daily Kos — ... Given how delusional Rick Davis appears to be, maybe it's not so surprising that he can't keep his troops in line. Then again, seeing as John McCain himself is so erratic, why should his campaign be any different? ...

McCain, Palin to spend weekend in Iowa, where's he down by 12 -- and just yesterday a McCain aide said Iowa was "gone"
AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth — ... To get a sense of just how desperate things are for the McCain/Palin ticket, take a look at the trend in Iowa from Pollster.com. This is the state where McCain and Palin are campaigning 10 days out: ...

Presidential Forecast 10/22: 13 Days Left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 206 New Mexico 5 55.0% 42.0% +13.0% 1 211 Iowa 7 54.0% 41.0% +13.0% 1* 218 ...

Presidential Forecast, 10/23: 12 Days Left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 206 206 Iowa 7 52.0% 39.0% +13.0% 1 213 Minnesota 10 52.3% 40.8% +11.5% 4 ...

Presidential Forecast, October 24th
Open Left - Front Page — ... 206 206 Iowa 7 52.0% 39.0% +13.0% 1 213 Minnesota 10 53.0% 40.8% +12.2% 5 ...

Saturday Morning Open Thread
AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth — ... today. Sarah Palin is in Iowa today. Those are the only two states that Gore won, but Kerry lost. Obama has them locked up. But, if McCain and Palin want to campaign there, who are we to question it? They're running out of options... ...

Presidential Forecast, 10/25: 10 Days Left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 41.0% +11.0% 1* 217 Wisconsin 10 52.3% 41.3% +11.0% 4 227 Iowa 7 52.0% 41.5% +10.5% 2 234 ...

Can Someone Explain With A Straight Face…
Oliver Willis — why the heck McCain and Palin are campaigning in Iowa and Pennsylvania? Colorado, I understand. Florida, I understand. New Hampshire even makes sense. And certainly Ohio. But they’re spending their limited resources in states where poll after poll shows a double digit deficit. Then again, almost 8 years ago George W. Bush was campaigning in California - nobody knows why to this day. Bush went on to lose California by 12% to Gore. ...

Presidential Forecast, 10/26: 9 Days Left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 216 216 Iowa 7 52.3% 39.8% +12.5% 4 223 Maine-02 1 52.0% 41.0% +11.0% 1* 224 ...

Presidential Forecast, 10/27: 8 Days Left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 216 216 Iowa 7 52.2% 40.8% +11.4% 5 223 Maine-02 1 52.0% 41.0% +11.0% 1* 224 ...

Presidential Forecast, 10/28: 7 days left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 217 217 Iowa 7 52.0% 41.7% +10.3% 3 224 Pennsylvania 21 52.0% 42.0% +10.0% 3 ...

Just Statistical Noise: Obama by 7%
Open Left - Front Page — ... +10.5% 2 243 New Hampshire 4 51.7% 41.3% +10.4% 3 247 Iowa 7 52.0% 44.0% +8.0% 1 254 ...

Presidential Forecast, 10/29: 6 Days Left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 40.8% +11.2% 4 220 Maine-02 1 52.0% 41.0% +11.0% 1* 221 Iowa 7 52.0% 41.7% +10.3% 3 228 ...

Presidential Forecast, 10/30: 5 Days Left
Open Left - Front Page — ... +11.0% 1* 221 Pennsylvania 21 52.8% 42.0% +10.8% 6 242 Iowa 7 51.7% 42.0% +9.7% 3 249 ...

The indignity of worrying about Arizona
Political Animal — ... " states. The list included Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina ... and Arizona. Oh, the indignity of it all. (For the record, the poll shows McCain leading in his home state by seven, 53% to 46%.) The recent polls showing a fairly competitive contest in Arizona apparently aren't a fluke. ...

More On My Obama Projection
Open Left - Front Page — ... 207 207 Iowa 7 54.0% 39.5% +14.5% 2 214 Minnesota 7 54.0% 40.3% +13.7% 4 224 ...

Dead Even In Iowa?
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan — ... from Bill McInturff and Rick Davis. Obama is there today, which suggests he senses some kind of shift. But all the public polls show a big and stable Obama lead. The most recent, SUSA's, has Obama 15 points ahead. Mcinturff ...

Iowa
Political Animal — ... the McCain campaign released a detailed memo about the state of the race. "Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days," the McCain campaign insisted. "We took Obama's lead from the double digits to a very close race.... Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain's column." In advance of Tuesday, it's simply a question of who you're inclined to believe more -- the most reliable measurement of public opinion in Iowa (along with every other pollster surveying the state) or the McCain campaign's strategy memo.— ...

Presidential Forecast, 11/2: Two Days Left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 154 New Jersey 15 53.7% 38.0% +15.7% 3 169 Iowa 7 54.0% 38.7% +15.3% 3 176 ...

Presidential Forecast, 11/3: 44 Hours Left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 154 154 Iowa 7 54.5% 38.5% +16.0% 2 161 Maine-AL 2 54.0% 38.3% +15.7% 3* 163 ...

Presidential Forecast, 11/3: 34 Hours Left
Open Left - Front Page — ... 154 154 Iowa 7 54.0% 38.3% +15.7% 3 161 Maine-AL 2 54.0% 38.3% +15.7% 3* 163 ...