yglesias.thinkprogress.org - 11/3/2008
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Something funny happened in 2004 where a lot of progressives convinced themselves near the end that John Kerry was likely to win the election even though he was narrowly behind in the polls. Then a lot of people have gone and misremembered that as thinking that Kerry was likely to win because ...
online.wsj.com - 10/30/2008
fivethirtyeight.com - 11/2/2008
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fivethirtyeight.com —
This is beginning to look like a five-state
election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and...
Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states. I should caution that by far the most ...
(more)
Today's Polls, 11/1
fivethirtyeight.com - 11/3/2008
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fivethirtyeight.com —
Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since
our update this afternoon. We now have him with...
a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and ...
(more)
Today's Polls, 3 AM Edition (11/3)
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Obama is the 2004 Red Sox, not the 2003 edition
The Reaction —
... Now Obama has a huge lead in the polls and his supporters are thinking, "He's still a Democrat. He's going to find a way to screw this up." We even point to the optimism heading into 2004 and how the GOP crushed us like always. Of course, we now forget that John Kerry never had an 8-1 lead. It was more like we were heading into the 9th trailing 5-4, but instead of Mariano Rivera coming out, for some reason it was Paul Quantrill. "Oh, we can get to this guy," we all thought. "We'll totally win!" And then a few weak ground-outs later, Bush was reelected. ...
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realclearpolitics.com 10/22/2008 — 2004 Battleground States AR | CO | FL | HI | IA | ME | MI | MN | MO | NV | NH | NJ | NM | OH | OR | PA | WV | WI Send This Page to a Friend Send This Page to a Friend Key: RV = Registered Voters, LV = Likely Voters, A = Adults * Strategic Vision is a ...
The Polls - 10/15
talkleft.com 10/15/2008 — Yesterday, Sarah Palin said : Our opponents spend so much time pretending they are running against the current president. I think it's wearing pretty thin . . . The American people are really waking up and saying no, the status quo is not one of ...
About the Polls
minx.cc 10/29/2008 — The Bradley Effect is merely a subset of the "socially desirable answer" phenomenon. People tend to tell pollsters the socially desirable answer. Here's one simple example: When a pollster is asking if someone is a likely voter, and if they've...
Our Polls Are on the Mark. I Think.
washingtonpost.com 11/2/2008 — Comments that include profanity or personal attacks or other inappropriate comments or material will be removed from the site. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. ...
Last Polls, First Votes.
blah3.com 11/4/2008 — Zogby: Obama 54%, McCain 42% . Marist: Obama 52%, McCain 43% . And the first results are in - from Dixville Notch, NH : Obama - 15, McCain - 6 (the first Dem win since 1968!). From Hart's Location : Obama - 17, McCain - 10, Paul - 2 . Let the ass-whupping begin.
The Polls - 10/31
talkleft.com 10/31/2008 — Any Halloween scares to come in the polling today? Not likely. DKos/R2000 has Obama up 6, 51-45. Ras has Obama up 4, 51-47 and a good explanation of what has happened in the last week or so: The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying ...
Today's Polls, 10/16
fivethirtyeight.com 10/17/2008 — With seven different daily tracking polls to work with -- one of which releases three separate versions of its model each day -- there is a lot to choose from for those who might seek to cherry-pick results. Slow news day, Matt? If this is a ...
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