strata-sphere.com - 10/27/2008
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I have been noting that national polls and some state polls may be way off based on optimistic voter turnout models which are historically nonsense (see posts here and here). One of the first indicators of whether Obama really is enjoying some massive lead is the early voting opportunities, ...
corner.nationalreview.com - 10/25/2008
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corner.nationalreview.com —
I've been thinking this for a while so
I might as well air it here. I honestly...
never thought we'd see such a thing in our country - not yet anyway - but I sense what's occurring in this election is a recklessness and abandonment of rationality that ...
(more)
The Obama Temptation
fivethirtyeight.com - 10/24/2008
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fivethirtyeight.com —
This is not the time when John McCain
can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's...
had perhaps his worst one of the year. The national trackers were essentially a push -- three moved toward Obama, two toward McCain, two were flat -- but the action today ...
(more)
Today's Polls, 10/23: McCain on Life Support
gallup.com - 10/29/2008
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gallup.com —
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking data
collected through Monday night indicate that 18% of registered...
voters who plan to vote have already voted, and another 15% say they will vote before Nov. 4; so far the voter preferences of this early ...
(more)
Early Voting Now Up to 18%
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Is Georgia in Play?
QandO —
... Conventional wisdom seems to believe that large early voting crowds favor Democrats. And many "experts" seem to think that may be enough, in Georgia, to put Obama over the top here. Of course, conventional wisdom isn’t always right. ...
Eight More Days Of This…Seriously
pandagon.net - we are the public option —
... Of course, the conservative base is desperate like whoa for any good news...so this means that Barack Obama will lose California and John McCain is already our next old white male president. Strata-Sphere: ...
It's Morning in California. Or Is It?
Opinionator —
... 1,000 vote advantage! If we take the liberty of assuming that all Republicans will vote for John McCain and all Democrats will vote for Obama,then the race is incredibly close. I’m sure that Obama will eventually win in California,but if he is struggling here after he pushed so hard for early voting,then he will lose the election!“First there was early voting and registration in Ohio, where Obama’s campaign promised to make huge gains — only to fall 80 percent short of their mark,” adds A.J. Strata at the Strata-Sphere : All the hype in Ohio was pure fantasy when it came to ...
A word of clarification
Sister Toldjah —
In my post yesterday writing about why the prospect of an Obama presidency is so troubling, I may have given off the impression that I had “given up” on the presidential race. I assure you, I have not. And in spite of any polling news you may hear, I don’t want any of you to give up, either.
And speaking of polling news, make sure to check out these three posts that talk about early voting stats and poll weighting samples ...
Polls Wrong! Obama Losing!
Outside The Beltway | OTB —
Polls Wrong! Obama Losing! Stories from RedState , Strata-Sphere and elsewhere that the massive early voting so far isn’t going overwhelmingly for Barack Obama as expected have Memeorandum abuzz. While it’s understandable that John McCain supporters are grasping for any good news they can find, the idea that California is “very tight,” let alone that “in the less liberal states [Obama] is in real trouble” is just absurd. While it’s interesting, if true, that Obama is up only slightly with the 210,000 early votes in California, it’s simply not within the ...
POETIC (OR, VOTETIC) JUSTICE ?
Dr. Sanity —
... Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted. And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats' 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned. There have also been other indicators that early voting in other states--even in California--do not show the surge that Obama is expecting will necessarily go his way. Several analyses have predicted this, suggesting that the national polls are ...
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The Polls - 10/15
talkleft.com 10/15/2008 — Yesterday, Sarah Palin said : Our opponents spend so much time pretending they are running against the current president. I think it's wearing pretty thin . . . The American people are really waking up and saying no, the status quo is not one of ...
What to Make of the Polls
anonymousliberal.com 10/29/2008 — This has been an especially odd election when it comes to polls. We're seeing an exceptionally large divergence in both state and national poll numbers, not only in absolute numbers but in trendlines. Both of these phenomena are worth pondering. ...
Today's Polls, 10/14
fivethirtyeight.com 10/15/2008 — Perhaps the CBS poll that shows Barack Obama with a 14-point lead among likely voters (12 points when third-party candidates are included) is a modest outlier. But if so, John McCain has more and more outliers that he has to explain away these days. ...
The Polls - 10/31
talkleft.com 10/31/2008 — Any Halloween scares to come in the polling today? Not likely. DKos/R2000 has Obama up 6, 51-45. Ras has Obama up 4, 51-47 and a good explanation of what has happened in the last week or so: The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying ...
Polls:
volokh.com 11/3/2008 — Today's polls released so far show everything from a 47-45% Obama lead (well within the margin of error), with 8% undecided, in the TIPP poll, to a 52-43-5 result in the...
Polls, Polls
andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com 10/24/2008 — If you read Drudge, you might believe that there's a one-point gap between Obama and McCain, and it's neck and neck in the final stretch. If you read 538, you find that McCain's chances of winning this election just shrank dramatically to 3.7 percent ...
The Polls - 11/3
talkleft.com 11/3/2008 — One day to go. In January, the polling for the New Hampshire primary had Obama leading by an average of 8.3 points . Sounds scary right? Let's look at those numbers - Obama was predicted to get 38%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 18%, Richardson 6% and 8% ...
The Polls - 10/18
talkleft.com 10/18/2008 — Tightening from double digit leads, Barack Obama still holds significant leads in most tracking polls. This could be a function of the volatility of these polls or a genuine (and predictable) tightening of the race. DKos/R2000 has Obama by 7, ...
Today's Polls, 10/28
fivethirtyeight.com 10/29/2008 — Stop me if you've heard this one before. Although the national trackers look slightly stronger for John McCain than they did a couple days ago, Barack Obama once again had an exceptionally good day in the state-level numbers. To review the national ...
Today's Polls, 11/3 (PM Edition)
fivethirtyeight.com 11/3/2008 — With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House. The ...
Poll Gives Obama 8-Point Va. Lead —
Wash Post Elections 10/27/2008
Barack Obama has opened up an eight-point lead over Republican John McCain in Virginia, and the Democrat is entering the final week of the campaign with several core advantages when it comes to turning out his supporters, according to a new Washington ...
Obama leads in 5 key states, McCain in 2 —
Reuters: Politics 10/27/2008
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Barack Obama leads John McCain in five of eight crucial battleground states one week before the presidential election, with McCain ahead in two states and Florida dead even, according to a series of Reuters/Zogby polls released on ...
McCain tries to distance himself from Bush —
Reuters: Politics 10/27/2008
ZANESVILLE, Ohio (Reuters) - Republican presidential nominee John McCain on Sunday fought to distance himself from unpopular President George W. Bush and Democrat Barack Obama attempted to attach them at the hip on a day of fierce campaigning.
...
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