realclearpolitics.com - 10/24/2008
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I've received several emails from people asking about the polls. The national polls do seem pretty variable, so I thought I would toss in my two cents on them. First, we need a short primer on basic statistics. Real Clear...
online.wsj.com - 10/22/2008
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online.wsj.com —
Can we trust the polls this year? That's
a question many people have been asking as we...
approach the end of this long, long presidential campaign. As a recovering pollster and continuing poll consumer, my answer is yes -- with qualifications. To start ...
(more)
Are the Polls Accurate?
online.wsj.com - 10/30/2008
strata-sphere.com - 10/27/2008
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strata-sphere.com —
I have been noting that national polls and
some state polls may be way off based on...
optimistic voter turnout models which are historically nonsense (see posts here and here). One of the first indicators of whether Obama really is enjoying some massive ...
(more)
3rd Early Voting Indicator National Polls May Be Way Off
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Blog Reactions
Carol Platt Liebau: A Timely Reminder
Townhall.com Blog's TownHall Blog —
Jay Cost's "Note on the Polls" is one of the most cogent explanations of the statistics involved in poll interpretation that this words-before-numbers person has yet seen. Jay notes the unusually large variations in the assorted presidential polls, and notes that it's attributable to the different samples the pollsters are using. The upshot is this: Obama is ahead, but no one -- no one -- really knows by how much. Ultimately, the only way to guarantee that it's by a lot is for Republicans to give up and give in. And wouldn't that be a shame, if it turned out that the ...
Bill Dyer: When it comes to polls and pollsters: Illegitimi non carborundum
Hugh Hewitt's TownHall Blog —
... ) I'm once again going to deviate from my normal disinclination to discuss polls, but it's only to bring you what I think is a well-informed and clear-eyed warning about the current polls you're reading. From Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics , based on his careful and comprehensive analysis of a wide range of current political opinion polls: So, we have made three observations: (a) relative to 2004, the standard deviation for Obama and McCain's polls are high, indicating more disagreement among pollsters at a similar point in this cycle; (b) the shape of the distribution of ...
10/27 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 50, McCain 42
Daily Kos —
... of the new voters, who will likely be disproportionately young and minority voters favoring Senator Obama, will affect those models. No one knows for sure and this requires everyone to make untested assumptions about what is going to happen. That means that the average of polls may or may not be predictive of the final number; if some of the pollsters are using models that are just wrong (and there's no way to know that now), the averages could be off. Jay Cost walks us through the polling variations to illustrate that: ...
Polling alone
The Corner on National Review Online —
... ] I'm kind of beyond polls at this stage - although I found this analysis by Jay Cost very interesting. As he points out, the standard deviation this year is significantly higher than usual - which means that the polls that turn out to be wrong will be wronger than usual. Also, they're not a conventional central cluster - a pyramid with a few outliers at either end. The McCain graph has almost no cluster anywhere, suggesting that the number you get depends as much on the "turnout model" cooked up in the pollsters' office as on anything Mr and Mrs America tell 'em down the ...
A Tale Of Two Elections
The Next Right —
... and here. They’re both well worth the read, but the gist is that the polls are showing variance that can’t be explained just by sampling error. ...
Related Content
Polls, Polls
andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com 10/24/2008 — If you read Drudge, you might believe that there's a one-point gap between Obama and McCain, and it's neck and neck in the final stretch. If you read 538, you find that McCain's chances of winning this election just shrank dramatically to 3.7 percent ...
Polls:
volokh.com 11/3/2008 — Today's polls released so far show everything from a 47-45% Obama lead (well within the margin of error), with 8% undecided, in the TIPP poll, to a 52-43-5 result in the...
About the Polls
minx.cc 10/29/2008 — The Bradley Effect is merely a subset of the "socially desirable answer" phenomenon. People tend to tell pollsters the socially desirable answer. Here's one simple example: When a pollster is asking if someone is a likely voter, and if they've...
The Polls - 10/15
talkleft.com 10/15/2008 — Yesterday, Sarah Palin said : Our opponents spend so much time pretending they are running against the current president. I think it's wearing pretty thin . . . The American people are really waking up and saying no, the status quo is not one of ...
2008 Polls Versus 2004 Polls
yglesias.thinkprogress.org 11/3/2008 — Something funny happened in 2004 where a lot of progressives convinced themselves near the end that John Kerry was likely to win the election even though he was narrowly behind in the polls. Then a lot of people have gone and misremembered that as ...
Our Polls Are on the Mark. I Think.
washingtonpost.com 11/2/2008 — Comments that include profanity or personal attacks or other inappropriate comments or material will be removed from the site. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. ...
Last Polls, First Votes.
blah3.com 11/4/2008 — Zogby: Obama 54%, McCain 42% . Marist: Obama 52%, McCain 43% . And the first results are in - from Dixville Notch, NH : Obama - 15, McCain - 6 (the first Dem win since 1968!). From Hart's Location : Obama - 17, McCain - 10, Paul - 2 . Let the ass-whupping begin.
Debate polls
washingtonmonthly.com 10/16/2008 — DEBATE POLLS.... Everyone who watched last night's debate came to their own conclusions about the candidates' performances, but there's that other question to consider: what did everyone else think? Reiterating a point from previous post-debate ...
Today's Polls, 10/16
fivethirtyeight.com 10/17/2008 — With seven different daily tracking polls to work with -- one of which releases three separate versions of its model each day -- there is a lot to choose from for those who might seek to cherry-pick results. Slow news day, Matt? If this is a ...
Obama's big lead in the polls is real
salon.com 10/25/2008 — Democrats are afraid to believe he's really winning. But a pollster explains why those polls that show a tight race should be treated with skepticism. By Paul Maslin Salon Radio: Kenneth Katzman on attacking Iran An interview with one of the ...
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