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minx.cc - 10/29/2008
About the Polls
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The Bradley Effect is merely a subset of the "socially desirable answer" phenomenon. People tend to tell pollsters the socially desirable answer. Here's one simple example: When a pollster is asking if someone is a likely voter, and if they've...
Today's Polls, 11/1
fivethirtyeight.com - 11/2/2008
Today's Polls, 11/1
— fivethirtyeight.com — This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and... Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states. I should caution that by far the most ... (more) Today's Polls, 11/1

Comments vote down The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan found this 11/2/2008found this
3rd Early Voting Indicator National Polls May Be Way Off
strata-sphere.com - 10/27/2008
3rd Early Voting Indicator National Polls May Be Way Off
— strata-sphere.com — I have been noting that national polls and some state polls may be way off based on... optimistic voter turnout models which are historically nonsense (see posts here and here). One of the first indicators of whether Obama really is enjoying some massive ... (more) 3rd Early Voting Indicator National Polls May Be Way Off

Comments vote down QandO found this 10/27/2008found this
A Note on the Polls
realclearpolitics.com - 10/24/2008
A Note on the Polls
— realclearpolitics.com — I've received several emails from people asking about the polls. The national polls do seem pretty variable,... so I thought I would toss in my two cents on them. First, we need a short primer on basic statistics. Real Clear... (more) A Note on the Polls

Comments vote down Townhall.com Blog's TownHall Blog found this 10/24/2008found this

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Sadly, No!:  Question of the Day

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Question of the Day
Sadly, No! — What is the real reason for John McCain’s poor showing in the polls? W hite guilt I ntimidating black phone voices N ooners’ betrayal G inormous Demoncrap vote fraud N ot nearly enough Palin U nfair press coverage T errorist campaign donations S ...

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Polls, Polls
andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com 10/24/2008 — If you read Drudge, you might believe that there's a one-point gap between Obama and McCain, and it's neck and neck in the final stretch. If you read 538, you find that McCain's chances of winning this election just shrank dramatically to 3.7 percent ...
The Polls - 10/15
talkleft.com 10/15/2008 — Yesterday, Sarah Palin said : Our opponents spend so much time pretending they are running against the current president. I think it's wearing pretty thin . . . The American people are really waking up and saying no, the status quo is not one of ...
Polls:
volokh.com 11/3/2008 — Today's polls released so far show everything from a 47-45% Obama lead (well within the margin of error), with 8% undecided, in the TIPP poll, to a 52-43-5 result in the...
The Polls - 10/31
talkleft.com 10/31/2008 — Any Halloween scares to come in the polling today? Not likely. DKos/R2000 has Obama up 6, 51-45. Ras has Obama up 4, 51-47 and a good explanation of what has happened in the last week or so: The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying ...
The Polls - 10/18
talkleft.com 10/18/2008 — Tightening from double digit leads, Barack Obama still holds significant leads in most tracking polls. This could be a function of the volatility of these polls or a genuine (and predictable) tightening of the race. DKos/R2000 has Obama by 7, ...
2008 Polls Versus 2004 Polls
yglesias.thinkprogress.org 11/3/2008 — Something funny happened in 2004 where a lot of progressives convinced themselves near the end that John Kerry was likely to win the election even though he was narrowly behind in the polls. Then a lot of people have gone and misremembered that as ...
Today's Polls, 10/16
fivethirtyeight.com 10/17/2008 — With seven different daily tracking polls to work with -- one of which releases three separate versions of its model each day -- there is a lot to choose from for those who might seek to cherry-pick results. Slow news day, Matt? If this is a ...
The Polls - 11/3
talkleft.com 11/3/2008 — One day to go. In January, the polling for the New Hampshire primary had Obama leading by an average of 8.3 points . Sounds scary right? Let's look at those numbers - Obama was predicted to get 38%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 18%, Richardson 6% and 8% ...
What to Make of the Polls
anonymousliberal.com 10/29/2008 — This has been an especially odd election when it comes to polls. We're seeing an exceptionally large divergence in both state and national poll numbers, not only in absolute numbers but in trendlines. Both of these phenomena are worth pondering.  ...
Last Polls, First Votes.
blah3.com 11/4/2008 — Zogby: Obama 54%, McCain 42% . Marist: Obama 52%, McCain 43% . And the first results are in - from Dixville Notch, NH : Obama - 15, McCain - 6 (the first Dem win since 1968!). From Hart's Location : Obama - 17, McCain - 10, Paul - 2 . Let the ass-whupping begin.