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fivethirtyeight.com - 9/23/2008
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Heretofore, I've simply been allocating undecided voters 50:50. That is certainly the most neutral assumption to make. But this site isn't about making the most neutral assumption, it's about making the most predictive one. So what I'm going to do instead is tie the undecided allocation to the ...
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On Allocating Undecided Voters
The Next Right —
... At fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver has a formula for allocating undecideds. It is a pretty simple formula. He looks at how Obama overperformed or underperformed relative to the polls in the Democratic primaries, and then applies the formula to the general election. I’m having trouble replicating his results – the best I could get it was an r-square of .61, with only three of the variables at significant at 95%, but that could be due to different datasets used and different estimates of ...
