msnbc.msn.com - 11/2/2008
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The Democrat has pulled ahead in enough states to win the 270 electoral votes he needs to gain the White House — and with states to spare — according to an Associated Press analysis.
Obama Breaks 270
politicalwire.com 10/26/2008 — CNN is the first traditional media outlet to publish a forecast that shows Sen. Barack Obama with enough electoral votes to win the presidential election. If the election were held today, Obama would beat McCain, 277 to 174 with 87 still undecided. ...
Update as of 7:24 PM PST
bradblog.com 11/5/2008 — As of this minute CNN is projecting 207 electoral votes for Obama and 135 for McCain. 270 is the magic number to win. Once Obama scores California's 55 electoral votes, that puts him at 262--8 votes away. In other words, California plus pretty much any other state (okay, almost) and Obama wins. ...
What Would 'Tightening' Look Like?
fivethirtyeight.com 10/28/2008 — There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College? Let me be oddly specific here. In order to ...
Today's Polls, 10/27
fivethirtyeight.com 10/28/2008 — John McCain is making no progress in his pursuit of the White House. Our model now projects Barack Obama to win 351 electoral votes to John McCain's 187, and to win the Electoral College 96.7 percent of the time to McCain's 3.3 percent. Both numbers ...
Election Predictions: Pundits Weigh In
huffingtonpost.com 11/2/2008 — Mark Halperin
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats, 40 Republicans
House Seats: Democrats 261 Republicans 174
Matthew Dowd
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 57 ...
What Will We Know by 7 PM?
fivethirtyeight.com 11/4/2008 — Andrew Gelman of Columbia University has taken a recent set of our simulations to look at what may happen conditional on the outcomes of the first states to close their polls at 6 and 7 PM. The bottom line? If those states go roughly as expected ...
A narrowing path
politico.com 11/5/2008 — ABC calls Pennsylvania and New Hampshire for Obama, based on the exit polls; CNN is waiting to project.
If ABC is right, that's more or less the ballgame. Without those two states, the scenarios for McCain become increasingly exotic: He needs to ...
McCain Aide: 'We Need a Miracle'
drudge.com 11/5/2008 — Barack Obama has won the swing states of Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio and New Mexico, leaving John McCain in a position where he must win six of the remaining toss-up states, keep Obama from taking Colorado, and find several other state to win unexpectedly. "At this point, we need a ...
AP: Obama Leads in Enough States to Win —
Drudge Retort
Barack Obama has pulled ahead in enough states to win the 270 electoral votes he needs to gain the White House, according to an Associated Press analysis. Obama now has several possible routes to victory, while McCain is scrambling to defend states where he shouldn't even have to campaign in the ...
Obama Close to Victory —
Drudge Retort
With 199 electoral votes, Barack Obama has won the swing states of Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio and New Mexico, leaving John McCain in a position where he must win six of the remaining toss-up states, keep Obama from taking Colorado, and find several other state to win unexpectedly. "At ...
Obama Wins Ohio —
Drudge Retort
Barack Obama has won the swing states of Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Ohio, leaving John McCain in a position where he must win seven of the remaining toss-up states, keep Obama from taking New Mexico and Colorado, and find some other state to win unexpectedly. "At this point, we need a ...
Wild Turkey, Scary Election. —
Rachel Lucas
8:03 p.m. CST Time for a fresh new thread.
Right now, Fox News has McCain up in the national vote but Obama way up in electoral votes. What a system we have in this most advanced nation in the history of man. Are we serious? Don’t explain the electoral college to me; I know. I remember ...
McCain Wins West Virginia —
Outside The Beltway | OTB
Okay, so this actually is news: John McCain is the projected winner in West Virginia. It’s a Red State but one where Obama was contesting. Not an upset but the first win of any significance at all. Put enough 5 Electoral Votes toward his tally.
Electoral College Predictions —
Outside The Beltway | OTB
The OTB gang has previously weighed in with their Electoral College projections.
James Joyner: Obama 325, McCain 213
Dodd Harris: Obama 318, McCain 160, Tossup 60
Alex Knapp: Obama 350, McCain 188
Other bloggers’ predictions:
Steven Taylor: Obama 364, McCain 174
Radley Balko: ...
Obama favored by electoral map —
The Swamp
by Frank James
Pollster.com has one of the best websites for tracking polls and allocating states on the Electoral College map using the best available information.
Their Election Day map shows Sen. Barack Obama with 291 electoral votes (270 is the magic number) based on the ...
The Paths to 270 —
Taegan Goddard's Political Wire
Jay DeSart lays out the most likely paths for
either Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. John McCain to get to
the to the 270 Electoral Votes needed to win the presidency. He arranges the states "in the order of the probability that the model
predicts that they will be won by Barack Obama. Based on ...
Final Rove electoral map sees large Obama win over McCain —
Top of the Ticket
Well, the final day before the official presidential voting and the final version of Karl Rove's exclusive national electoral map sees a strong victory by Barack Obama , gaining the most electoral votes since Bill Clinton's lopsided win over Bob Dole in 1996.
According to the research of ...
The Absurdity of the Electoral College —
Taegan Goddard's Political Wire
Sarah Cowan : "This system, along with the winner-take-all practice used to allocate
most states' electoral votes, creates the potential for an absurd
outcome. In the unlikely event that all 213 million eligible voters
cast ballots, either John McCain or Barack Obama could win enough
states to ...
Wargaming the Electoral College —
Vodkapundit
The Penultimate Edition
Tomorrow morning, I’ll post my own predictions. In the meantime, three maps to keep you plotting all day long.
Here’s the betting line at Intrade, as of Sunday evening. This is how real bettors putting down real money are calling the race. Nothing has changed ...
How Does the Electoral Map Change on Tuesday? —
The Next Right
Whether it is as largely expected on Tuesday with the Messiah descending upon 1600 or if McCain pulls out a miracle, the electoral map is likely to change in subtle but significant ways that set up 2012 and 2016 and dictate our opportunity states in the years to come.
This is a post about ...
Electoral College Projections —
Dean's World
Going by the straight state-by-state RCP averages and using the 2004 map to fill in blanks where there is no RCP average, the electoral college looks like this:
States where Obama is above 50% are blue. States where McCain is above 50% are red. States where undecideds hold the balance are ...
Electoral College Predictions All Favor Obama —
Newshoggers.com
By Cernig
We all know that it's the Electoral College that really counts - and the BBC notes that as of today the top predictors all call the College for Obama with a comfortable margin over the 270 needed for victory.
CQ Politics: Obama 311/McCain 160 Real Clear Politics: Obama ...
Battle For The Electoral College: Passenger 57 —
Hotline On Call Part Deux
With 73 new state matchups released since the previous update, Battle For The Electoral College is slightly overwhelmed. Barack Obama 's overall EV margin has increased since 10/28 , although his solid EV advantage has decreased. Obama now leads John McCain 364 EVs to 171 EVs; among solid EVs, ...
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