reflectivepundit.com - 11/5/2008
—
OK, so I stayed up entering all the data by hand just to answer one question: what was the final word on the Bradley Effect I've had to discuss about a million times in the past few weeks. The answer is: nada. I took the last polling projections from 538.com and compared them to the final ...
campaignspot.nationalreview.com - 11/5/2008
—
campaignspot.nationalreview.com —
Campaign Spot reader Joshua writes in, with some
data on what Sarah Palin did and did not...
add to the Republican ticket. First the most significant fin... . . .
(more)
The Palin Effect
theglobeandmail.com - 11/5/2008
—
theglobeandmail.com —
After a campaign in which the colour of
Barack Obama's skin was a relentless undercurrent, the Democratic...
contender laid to rest the fear that a historic night would be tainted by racial prejudice. Mr. Obama got 43 per cent of the white vote, ...
(more)
Obama escapes Bradley effect
npr.org - 11/7/2008
—
npr.org —
NPR.org , November 5, 2008 Dearly beloved, we
have gathered here today to say our final goodbyes...
to a political theory that died Tuesday. Rest in peace, Bradley effect. It was born in 1982, when Los Angeles' Mayor Tom Bradley, a black man, lost the ...
(more)
Hey, Bradley Effect: Good Riddance!
Comments
Blog Reactions
Building A Revived Democratic Coalition
The Huffington Post | Full News Feed —
... Even as black turnout was up, a number of analysts found that there was no "Bradley effect." Columbia political scientist David Epstein studied the election results for evidence that Obama might have pulled fewer votes than polls predicted, and found "The answer is: nada....In the states where the last polls had Obama within 10% of McCain, in either direction, Obama actually outperformed his polling by about 0.5%." ...
Building A Revived Democratic Coalition
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com —
... Even as black turnout was up, a number of analysts found that there was no "Bradley effect." Columbia political scientist David Epstein studied the election results for evidence that Obama might have pulled fewer votes than polls predicted, and found "The answer is: nada....In the states where the last polls had Obama within 10% of McCain, in either direction, Obama actually outperformed his polling by about 0.5%." ...
Truths and Myths about the 2008 Election, Part II
The Monkey Cage —
... So what happened yesterday? First of all, Obama’s share of the vote — 52% of the total votes cast — mirrored his standing in the polls at the end of the race (52% on Pollster). (The vote share data is obviously incomplete, but I can’t imagine it will change much.)
Second, if you look state-by-state, there is no evidence that he systematically under-performed viz. the polls. David Epstein of Columbia put together this graph over at Reflective Pundit:
He writes:
The projections ...
Related Content
The Bradley Effect is Dead
thetalentshow.org 11/2/2008 — I was about to write a post about why I don’t think the Bradley Effect is worth worrying about, but then I found this Newsweek article by Nate Silver that makes the exact same points :
There is little doubt Obama is losing some votes due to ...
The Bradley Non-Effect
corner.nationalreview.com 10/20/2008 — Two op-eds appear today -- one in the New York Times and one in the Wall Street Journal -- each debunking the original Bradley Effect. That is, each of them (the Times version is by a former Bradley aide, and the Journal version by a former aide to ...
Is "the Bradley effect" a "Democrat" effect?
tigerhawk.blogspot.com 10/20/2008 — Ann Coulter looks at the pre-election polls in every presidential election since 1980. In each case, including all those campaigns in which neither candidate was an African-American -- the Republicans performed better on election day than the polls ...
Op-Ed Contributor - What Bradley Effect?
nytimes.com 10/20/2008 — WITH only two weeks to go before the election, talk has turned to the Bradley effect. The phenomenon is named for Tom Bradley, the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, who lost the 1982 California governor’s race even though exit polls predicted ...
The Reverse-Bradley Effect
washingtonpost.com 10/22/2008 — At this juncture, I wouldn't want to bet even a subprime mortgage on this presidential election. As perhaps never before, multiple hidden factors could alter the outcome.
If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It?
fivethirtyeight.com 10/20/2008 — It was Tom Bradley's 1982 race for governor of California, in which he lost to George Deukmejian in spite of leading in the public polls, that gave the Bradley Effect its name. But now Lance Tarrance, the pollster for Bradley in that race, has an ...
The Bradley Effect, Revisited
fivethirtyeight.com 10/22/2008 — I doubt that I get as many e-mails on any single subject as I do on the Bradley Effect . In a feature for Newsweek , I take one last more look at the phenomenon: There is little doubt Obama is losing some votes due to his race; a recent Associated ...
Barack Obama elected president, CNN projects —
CNN Political Ticker 11/5/2008
(CNN) — Democrat Barack Obama won the 2008 presidential election, CNN projects, defeating Republican John McCain.
With his inauguration on January 20, 2009, Obama will become the 44th president of the United States and the first African-American ...
Obama beats McCain in Florida —
Reuters: Politics 11/5/2008
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama defeated John McCain on Tuesday in U.S. presidential voting in Florida, edging out his Republican rival in a key battleground state that put George W. Bush in the White House in 2000, MSNBC projected.
...
Obama captures electoral prize of California —
Reuters: Politics 11/5/2008
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Barack Obama won the biggest prize of the state-by-state U.S. election on Tuesday, defeating Republican John McCain in solidly Democratic California and walking away with its huge cache of 55 electoral votes, U.S. media ...
Obama wins —
First Read 11/5/2008
The New York Times front page: "OBAMA." Subheadline: "Racial barrier falls in decisive victory."
The NY Times' Nagourney : "The election of Mr. Obama amounted to a national catharsis -- a repudiation of a historically unpopular Republican ...
Rice: 'proud' of Obama's victory —
CNN Political Ticker 11/5/2008
WASHINGTON (CNN) – U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced Wednesday that the Department of State "will do everything we can" to ensure a smooth transition to President-elect Barack Obama.
While noting that Republican presidential ...
Follow BeltwayBlips on Twitter
