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A Downpayment on Withdrawal
democracyarsenal.org — ... Marc Lynch did a great framing memo for an NSN Iraq workshop for us last week and now he's put it out.   Here is the critical recommendation from Marc's paper. ...

FP Jan 12
Abu Aardvark — ... For email subscribers, here is the link to today's post at my new foreignpolicy.com blog: put up or shut up, in which I respond to critiques of Friday's post on U.S. public diplomacy in the Gaza crisis Why Obama still needs to get out of Iraq, in which I direct readers to my new article on, well, why Obama still needs to get out of Iraq.  I will continue to post these links for the forseeable future.  For old aardvark fans, here's a poster done in the manner of the iconic Obama poster: ...

Open Thread: Now with 50% More Links!
Obsidian Wings — ... The Marcvark on How to Get Out of Iraq.  He's right about a downpayment on withdrawal that should come sooner than later to clarify the intentions/stakes. ...

Iraq: Right Getting Ready To Blame Obama
Newshoggers.com — ... and it won't matter a damn how many US troops (or even whether there are any at all) there or not when the next outbreak of Iraq's cyclical boodfeud hits. It might be Kurds vs Shia, Shia vs Sunni, Sunni "Sons" vs Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party or Shia Sadrists vs Shia Badrists - but it won't matter a damn to Republicans that all Bush and Petraeus ever did was paper lightly over those cracks, only enough to bring Iraqi violence down to a per-capita equivalent of a 9/11 a week. It's still true that the US needs to withdraw before those feuds that Bush blew the lid off by invading can ...

Iraq: Right Getting Ready To Blame Obama
Crooks and Liars — ... a damn how many US troops (or even whether there are any at all) are there or not when the next outbreak of Iraq's cyclical boodfeud hits. It might be Kurds vs Shia, Shia vs Sunni, Sunni "Sons" vs Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party or Shia Sadrists vs Shia Badrists - but it won't matter a damn to Republicans that all Bush and Petraeus ever did was paper lightly over those cracks, only enough to bring Iraqi violence down to a per-capita equivalent of a 9/11 a week. It's still true that the US needs to withdraw before those feuds that Bush blew the lid off by invading can ...

Sack Odierno, Send A Message
Newshoggers.com — ... Odierno's intention of keeping troops in Iraq through the national elections is dangerously wrong. The CFR/Brookings/Odierno "go slow" approach ignores the reality of the new Status of Forces Agreement and the impending referendum this summer -- which may well fail if there is no sign of departing American troops. It sends the wrong messages to Iraqi politicians and the Iraqi population. It would badly hurt Obama's credibility in the region and with Iraqis, who will see his most important public commitment fall by the wayside. And it would lose the unique window of opportunity ...

Tell Me Now if You Want Me to Stay, It Don't Matter, 'Cause I'd Stay Here Anyway
Obsidian Wings — ... Rather than delaying the commencement of withdrawal under the theory that we can, or should, ignore the SOFA, the US should put a downpayment on withdrawal by beginning the pullout now as suggested by Marc Lynch for the following reasons: (1) it would reassure the Iraqi people of our intention to leave Iraq, which would make the SOFA more palatable; (2) it would strengthen Maliki's hand, and the hand of those advocating nationalism/centralism without, in the alternative, empowering the extremism of some of the Sadrist elements; and (3) even if such overtures do not convince ...

Tell Me Now if You Want Me to Stay, It Don't Matter, 'Cause I'd Stay Here Anyway
Newshoggers.com — ... Rather than delaying the commencement of withdrawal under the theory that we can, or should, ignore the SOFA, the US should put a downpayment on withdrawal by beginning the pullout now as suggested by Marc Lynch for the following reasons: (1) it would reassure the Iraqi people of our intention to leave Iraq, which would make the SOFA more palatable; (2) it would strengthen Maliki's hand, and the hand of those advocating nationalism/centralism without giving in to the extremist of some of the Sadrist elements; and (3) even if such overtures do not convince the Iraqi people to ...

Does America Really, Really Mean the SOFA Agreement?
Newshoggers.com — ... These people are treading a dangerous course, as Marc Lynch explains today. He writes that "Iraqis will be watching carefully to see whether the United States honors its commitments" in the months leading up to an Iraqi referendum on the SOFA agreement on July 31st and that if they don't see the right answer then the referendum will be a resounding "no" - at which point the US will have only 12 months to get everyone out of Iraq or occupy the country illegally again. ...

About that Referendum...
Obsidian Wings — ... A perceived retreat could give succor to those political groups most hostile to the US presence - or those willing to use the issue opportunistically.  Of course, the Obama administration could give Maliki some political cover by making a significant downpayment on withdrawal in the coming months.  Which would have other benefits as well (such as reducing the cost of operations and getting a head start on a more complete withdrawal that will occur down the road). ...