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How Bad Is It? (Monday Edition)
Swampland —
... from Nancy Pelosi's office last Friday, a number of Swampland commenters asked for a broader historical perspective. They ask, and Justin delivers, with the able assistance of Feilding Cage. Here are comparisons to the nasty recessions of 1981-1982 and 1974-1975.: ...
A Better Graph
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan —
The Pelosi graph has now been supplemented by Justin Fox's and William Polley's. I reproduce the more complete one. I note that even Martin Wolf says this won't be as bad as the 1930s. The decline started more shallowly than others but is heading vertically down at this point. Still, others have been worse, and the 2001 recession was shallower but far more extended than previous ones. One cannot predict the future, but one recalls that many recessions begin before we realize it and end the same way.
Fox's less cluttered graph is after ...
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
The Moderate Voice —
... look to the graph above and see the trouble is real…and that wasn’t the case with Iraq.
But the graph is not telling the whole story. Yes, we have lost a lot of jobs in this recession and when compared to the last two recessions, it looks pretty bad.
However, some information have been left out of this graph. That is, the other two recessions prior to the 1990 recession which were far more severe than the 90-91 recession and the 2000-01 recession.
Justin Fox over at Time shows the comparisons of the last five recessions. The result is ...
Why We're Probably in For a Long Recession
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right —
... Right now, however, the economy is not expanding -- it is contracting. And when the economy is contracting, reduced volatility may be an altogether different thing. It may mean that contractions are longer as well. Take a look, for instance, at Justin Fox's graph at Time.com about the behavior of the unemployment rate over the past six recessions: ...
Nancy Pelosi’s incomplete graphics
Hot Air » Top Picks —
... to argue that we are in The Worst Economic Crisis of All Time by showing the drop in employment rates: [image] Oh. My. GAWD!! It’s certainly the worst performance in … the last three recessions, the oldest of which is the 1991 slowdown. But what happens when we go back to 1974? Justin Fox gives us the answer: [image] In fact, July 1974 and July 1981 both look worse, at least at the moment. In neither case did we try passing such a huge, porked-up spending bill full of government pet projects as Pelosi offers now. However, in the early 1970s we did experiment with wage ...
