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I Believe! I Believe! Praise Obama!
Cold Fury — ... rate on [insert date] is below [insert threshold], I will judge the plan to be a success.” Given the uncertainties inherent in the economy, however, no sensible politician would hold himself to such a measurable standard. But the President also wanted to avoid sounding like he was avoiding accountability. So he gave us a non-measurable metric. A clear and specific benchmark, without any way of ever knowing whether it has been reached. Oh, that’s very different. Never mind. Greg Mankiw, you’re such a buzz kill. Really. I’ve spent so much time since January 20th rolling my eyes ...

The Daily Grind
Weekly Standard Blog — ... electoral shifts in New Jersey and Virginia? Indicted Baltimore mayor miffed she wasn't mentioned during Obama's pre-inauguration stop in B'more. She's letting him off easy; she could have asked for a Cabinet spot. Republicans are about to get 'off the hook.' And no, that's not a golf term. Obama to Canada: Erm, sorry. Good news: Government doubles Fannie/Freddie backing to $400 billion. "Create or save:" The Obama out. The coming inflation? Contestant No. ...

He Might As Well Have Said 10 Million Jobs
Hit & Run — ... Harvard economist Greg Mankiw notes that President Obama's promise that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act "will create or save 3.5 million jobs" is nonfalsifiable: ...

GREG MANKIW ON OBAMA’S PROMISES TO “CREATE OR SAVE” JOBS. “The expression ‘create or save,’ which h…
Instapundit — ... GREG MANKIW ON OBAMA’S PROMISES TO “CREATE OR SAVE” JOBS. “The expression ‘create or save,’ which has been used regularly by the President and his economic team, is an act of political genius. You can measure how many jobs are created between two points in time. But there is no way to measure how many jobs are saved. Even if things get much, much worse, the President can say that there would have been 4 million fewer jobs without the stimulus.” Unfalsifiable promises! A new kind of politics! ...

Going to donate some free market cash to The People's Republic of Vermont
Maggie's Farm — ... What a mess. Good entertainment, though. The admin plans a war against coal. Not smart. Rove: Is the ADmin winging it? Jules: Katrina who? In 2016, paying for Social Security becomes a big problem. Viking Cancel your trip to Guadeloupe George McGovern ages well. Tiger MA taxpayers fail to take opportunity to pay their fair share Mankiw: How will we know if the stimulus stimulates? Admin mortgage rescue rewards ...

Going to give some free market cash to The People's Republic of Vermont
Maggie's Farm — ... What a mess. Good entertainment, though. The admin plans a war against coal. Not smart. Rove: Is the ADmin winging it? Jules: Katrina who? In 2016, paying for Social Security becomes a big problem. Viking Cancel your trip to Guadeloupe George McGovern ages well. Tiger MA taxpayers fail to take opportunity to pay their fair share Mankiw: How will we know if the stimulus stimulates? Admin mortgage rescue rewards ...

Obama 4 Million Jobs Created or Saved
Outside The Beltway | OTB — ... Greg Mankiw is amused by President Obama’s statement that his stimulus plan should be judged on the basis of “creating or saving 4 million jobs.” The expression “create or save,” which has been used regularly by the President and his economic team, is an act of political genius. You can measure how many jobs are created between two points in time. But there is no way to measure how many jobs are saved. Even if things get much, much worse, the President can say that there would have been 4 million fewer jobs without the stimulus. An actual answer to the question “What metric?” ...

Tricky, Tricky
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan — Greg Mankiw parses the administration's stimulus rhetoric: The expression "create or save," which has been used regularly by the President and his economic team, is an act of political genius. You can measure how many jobs are created between two points in time. But there is no way to measure how many jobs are saved. Even if things get much, much worse, the President can say that there would have been 4 million fewer jobs without the stimulus. I find the crude Shrummian formula of government "creating" or ...

Policy Analysis Nihilism
Newshoggers.com — ... As soon as you identify the counterfactual, you can start asking about effectiveness and impacts of a given proposal. Not asking or disregarding the usefullness of counterfactualism and baseline  assumptions results in policy analysis nihilism.  Nothing is knowable, so fuck it.  And that is what Greg Mankiw is attempting to do with a recent post, and plenty of conservatives including those who should know better are following along: ...

Editors: Obamas Dodge
Articles on National Review Online — ... . The truth is that we will never know how many jobs the stimulus has created or saved — economist Greg Mankiw has pointed out that the ambiguity of the phrasing is an is an act of political genius that allows the administration to define saved however it wants. But we doubt the stimulus will create or save any jobs, since the government cannot spend money without borrowing or taxing it out of the private sector. [image] [image] [image] [image] [image] Obama acknowledged concerns about the deficit, but he implored the public not to blame the gargantuan stimulus ...

Obama’s Job Stimulus Deception, Illustrated
The Sundries Shack — ... plan will meet previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010, but the unemployment rate at that time may be higher due to further deterioration in the economy, a senior administration official said on Monday. The official said the administration was monitoring closely the results of the $787 billion spending and tax-cut package to determine whether additional actions are needed as “mid-term” economic forecasts are prepared by the White House. Ah, yes, the magic “save or create” phrase again. Notice how the “create” part has disappeared entirely? Just ...

Fact Checking the White House Claims about Job Creation and More
The Corner on National Review Online — ... . Also here is a great post by Greg Mankiw about Obama's promise to "Create or Save" jobs. He writes: The expression "create or save," which has been used regularly by the President and his economic team, is an act of political genius. You can measure how many jobs are created between two points in time. But there is no way to measure how many jobs are saved. Even if things get much, much worse, the President can say that there would have been 4 million fewer jobs without the stimulus. I think it is worth saying again and again: The government cannot create jobs or, more ...

Error bands for accountability
SCSUScholars — ... To be clear, this lack of accountability is not a feature on this specific administration but is, instead, a reflection of the inherent uncertainties associated with macroeconomics. The administration, however, has not been particularly forthright in admitting to this lack of accountability. Indeed, the act of releasing quarterly reports on how many jobs have been "created or saved" gives the illusion of accountability without the reality. ...

'Accountability?'
The Corner on National Review Online — ... : In light of the shifting baseline, it is impossible to hold the administration accountable for whether its policies are achieving their intended effects. To be clear, this lack of accountability is not a feature on this specific administration but is, instead, a reflection of the inherent uncertainties associated with macroeconomics. The administration, however, has not been particularly forthright in admitting to this lack of accountability. Indeed, the act of releasing quarterly reports on how many jobs have been "created or saved" gives the illusion of accountability ...

Wessel on Frank on Economists:
The Volokh Conspiracy — ... Answer: I think my initial measure of success is creating or saving 4 million jobs. That's bottom line No. 1, because if people are working, then they've got enough confidence to make purchases, to make investments. Businesses start seeing that consumers are out there with a little more confidence, and they start making investments, which means they start hiring workers. So step No. 1, job creation. Jobs "created" is a factual. Jobs "saved," on the other hand, poses a counterfactual. Professor Mankiw has an excellent quick discussion of why : The expression "create or save," ...