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TPM Election Central: Obama Stays Ahead
TPM Election Central — ... nationally, with his overall lead dipping just slightly from yesterday: • Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead from yesterday. • Rasmussen: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 53%-44% Obama lead from yesterday. • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-43% Obama ...

Polling alone
The Corner on National Review Online — ... is compulsory, so the famous US distinction between "registered" and "likely" voters is irrelevant. So it might well be that those pollsters who are anticipating that this is the year that the quadrennially ballyhooed "youth vote" actually emerges are right. And those who say that the five-point turnout advantage Democrats had in Pennsylvania in 2006 will be a 15-point advantage this year might also be right. But half of this stuff is a turnout prediction masquerading as a poll. This was the one that caught my eye, though: In addition to leading 50-42% overall, Obama also ...