pollster.com - 11/7/2008
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Interesting how Pew had Obama +13 and shifted to +6 for their final survey. They get credit for having the final number right, but I doubt there was such a large shift in public opinion in the last weekend. I think they were seeing a difference in enthusiasm between Obama and McCain supporters, ...
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The Polls Got it (Mostly) Right
BlueOregon —
... off in the mid-90s and is no longer a factor. But this was the first national election with a black candidate, so a lingering question remained (especially following the New Hampshire primary). The polls were pretty clear, though--there's absolutely no evidence of such a phenomenon. In the 14 swing states, polls underestimated Obama's support in eight--the random variation you'd expect in any election.
For the answer to the cell-phone question, I turn to Pollster's Brian Schafner: The trend based on surveys ...
Your Abbreviated Pundit Round-up
Daily Kos —
... of the election and add meaningful narrative to our news coverage – not to dwell monotonously on the score of the game. hear, hear! The best thing about the polls is that they told us roughly who would win... all of them did that. But the next best thing was the internals. AP: No Bradley effect. Carl Bialik (WSJ Numbers Guy): best turnout numbers piece yet. David Moore: How the undecideds decided. Brian Schaffner: Poll accuracy and cellphones
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The young and the restless —
First Read 11/7/2008
.. to vote? In his latest blog, NBC's Luke Russert breaks down the youth vote from Tuesday's election and finds good news for the Democratic Party.
"In swing states, the youth turnout greatly helped Barack Obama beat John McCain," he ...
Record turnout? —
CNN Political Ticker 11/7/2008
(CNN) — Was there a record turnout in the election?
Of Democrats, yes. Of all voters, not so much.
We expected to see amazingly high voter turnout in this election.
Was there?
Just over 208 million voting-age American citizens were eligible to ...