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Early voting a boost for Dems
Democratic Underground Latest Breaking News —
... 2004. The early voting trend is about even in Colorado. Republicans claim the edge among absentee voters in Florida, but Democrats are voting in far greater numbers at early voting polling places where voters lined up this week. "This is like a mirror image of what we've seen in the past," says Paul Gronke of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College. "This cannot be good news for John McCain. It's the 100-yard dash, and (Barack) Obama is already 20 yards ahead." Read more: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008... It is all good. All the time. Fair. ...
MORNING READ
News —
... Republicans Disgusted By RNC Spending on Palin - Marc Ambinder [image] Clothes Spending Has Republicans Livid - Sam Stein, Huffington Post [image] CNN's Rank Dishonesty - Rich Lowry, The Corner [image] Palin 2012 Contender or Pretender? - Chris Cillizza, The Fix [image] Thinking About 2012 - Marc Ambinder [image] Conservatives Don't Need to Endure Obama - M. Medved, Townhall OTHER NEWS SOURCES: Early Voting a Boost for Dems - USA Today Obama Opens Double-Digit Lead - Wall Street ...
Early Voting Gives Obama Edge
Taegan Goddard's Political Wire —
"Democrats are voting early in greater numbers than their Republican counterparts in several closely contested states, reversing a pattern that favored the GOP in past elections," according to USA Today. ...
DAVID FRUM: 'We need to stop indulging in the idea... that this race is winnable'
Taylor Marsh —
... Stories
like this one are encouraging. National polls are at the 10-point tipping point we need going in and where
we need them to be. But state to state polls are very tight. Remember that Obama
could possibly win the popular vote, but not come out ahead in the electoral college. It’s not like it hasn’t happened before. ...
Why Pennsylvania?
The Anonymous Liberal —
... But with all the early voting, the McCain camp may have concluded that their red state firewall has already been breached (or will be before election day). The most likely sources of concern are Virginia--where Obama has a significant lead in the polls--and the combination of Colorado and New Mexico--where Obama is also doing well. A significant portion of the votes in all three of those states have already been cast and many more will be cast prior to election day. ...
Around the Web: 2008
The Corner on National Review Online —
... The Boston Globe [image] [image] Obama Opens Double-Digit Lead The Wall Street Journal [image] Has Date With Grant Park The Chicago Tribune [image] Where the Crowds Are Los Angeles Times [image] After a Year on the Road, Is Changing His Tempo The New York Times [image] [image] State of the Race Candidates Keep Up Attacks in Key States The Washington Post [image] More Democrats Casting Early Ballots, Data Show The New York Times [image] Early Voting a Boost for Dems USA Today [image] Outsize Portion of Blacks Are Casting Early ...
Early Voting Estimates In Seven States
Open Left - Front Page —
... I arrived at these numbers as follows:
Information gathered from news articles here and here, plus quick hits here and here.
Estimated turnout percentage = ((total number of votes cast in 2008) / (total number of vast cast in 2004 * 1.1)). I am assuming a 10% increase in total turnout. It probably won't be that high, but at least I am not over-estimating the percentage of votes cast so far.
I multiplied the current partisan breakdown of returns according to how they broke according to 2004 exit ...
Florida Surge?
The Corner on National Review Online —
... ] USA Today : Florida: Republicans outnumber Democrats in absentee voting by nearly 3-to-2 among 630,000 voters, according to the state Republican Party. But Democrats are closing that gap in early in-person voting; Monday's opening day produced nearly a 2-to-1 advantage for Democrats among 150,000 voters, says McDonald at George Mason University. President Bush carried the state with 52% in 2004. ...
Early Voting Numbers Inspiring For Dems
Daily Kos —
... vote from the Second Congressional District to pad his victory total. The second is Senate candidate Scott Kleeb, who needs excellent numbers in Douglas County in order to have a chance at pulling off an upset victory against former Governor Mike Johanns. The third is U.S. House candidate Jim Esch, who is embroiled in one of the hottest races in the nation against incumbent Lee Terry in the Omaha-based Second Congressional district. So how about in key swing states like Ohio? Ohio: In Cuyahoga County, which Democrat John Kerry ...
Early Voting Trends Not Looking Good for McCain
Patterico's Pontifications —
... you to action.
Things are not looking good for McCain.
Debate has flowed back and forth about whether the polls are trustworthy. Some say Big Media and the Democrats (but I repeat myself) are pushing the theory that it’s all a done deal, as part of a strategy to demoralize conservatives and suppress turnout.
But I say: don’t look at the polls. Look at the voting.
People are already voting across the country, and early indications are that turnout is tremendously high for Democrats:
Democrats are voting early in ...
Bill Dyer: Don't be misled into thinking "early voting" reports necessarily, or even very closely, correspond to actual votes cast!
Hugh Hewitt's TownHall Blog —
... the totals right, it's an affirmative mis-mark, where one voter being wrongly presumed to have voted in conformity with his/her registration will show up in the totals both as one too many votes for one slate and one too few for the other. In what was assumed to have been a 100-to-100 tie, in other words, the actual count will turn out to be 101-to-99 (and a two-vote margin of victory) when the mistaken assumption is backed out and the actual vote is properly counted. USA Today's comparable article at least contains this explanation, buried several paragraphs down: Election ...
Presidential Forecast, October 24th
Open Left - Front Page —
... As good as these numbers look, it should be pointed out that Obama only has undisputed poll leads in states worth 286 electoral votes (the Kerry states plus Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and Virginia). In every other state where Obama leads, at least one recent poll shows McCain narrowly ahead. Combine this with reports that Republicans aren't actually doing so poorly in Colorado early voting, and that leaves only Virginia as a clear firewall. ...
