Income versus output
SCSUScholars —
Caution: Serious data geekery ahead. Proceed at own risk. I was only mildly surprised by the NBER call of recession yesterday, certainly not as much as Brian Wesbury or Mark Perry appear to be. Still, there are going to be those who will wonder about the recession call in light of there not yet being two consecutive quarters of GDP decline (even though every economist who studies these things knows the committee does not define recessions that way.) What the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) said about that is interesting. The ...
Dating Recessions
The Corner on National Review Online —
Thursday, December 04, 2008 [image] Dating Recessions [Ramesh Ponnuru] It's an art more than a science : Even with rising inflation, and falling home construction, real GDP contracted at only a tiny 0.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2007, and grew in the first two quarters of 2008, including a quite healthy 2.8% growth rate in Q2. Not since 1970 has the NBER called a recession for a period including such a strong quarter of real GDP growth (and remember that the 1970 data has been revised substantially in the intervening years). In fact, GDP data were much worse than in ...
