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Against fully seating Michigan and Florida before he was for it.
RedState: Conservative News and Community — ... This naturally has nothing to do with the fact that Michigan - a state that Obama absolutely needs to win - is currently polling at +4.3 for the last month. In July. Before the race tightens. It's merely a sign that the candidate is all about making sure that everybody gets represented at the convention. ...

Pres-08: Tie Game
RedState: Conservative News and Community — This is what a tie looks like As a poll watcher, it is hard to avoid RealClearPolitics homepage. On it, there is a list of important states that could swing this election. Right now, almost all of those states are tied. National: Obama +2.7 Colorado: Obama +1.7 Virginia: Obama +1.0 Missouri: McCain +2.0 Michigan: Obama +4.3 Ohio: Obama + 0.5 Florida: McCain +0.5 Wow. But a couple observations would be prudent. First, McCain needs to win almost all of these ...

MI-PRES: Race Narrows, Good News for McCain
RedState: Conservative News and Community — MI is beginning to look like THE bellweather state Today, we look at MI. Only one brand new poll, but I'll tease this into a full expose on MI polling. First, Rasmussen has a new poll from Aug 7 (July 10): McCain 45 (42) Obama 49 (50) To supplement that the most recent other poll is from PPP (D) on July 27 (Jun 22): McCain 43 (39) Obama 46 (48) And the only other pollster active in MI in Quinnipiac with their most recent poll on July 22 (Jun 24): McCain 42 (42) Obama 46 (48) I ...

Four to watch
Power Line — ... Obama. Virginia and Colorado are similar in that, as noted above, the Democrats have surged in both since 2004. But they diverge in that Obama seems like a good fit in Colorado, whereas he's substantially to the left of the Democrats who have prevailed in Virginia recently. Perhaps putting Tim Kaine, one of those Dems, on the ticket would partially compensate for this disadvantage. The state polls, such as they are, also point slightly in Obama's favor. He's a few points ahead in Michigan and ...

Barack Obama 275 John McCain 250 Ties 13
FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog — ... Missouri 45.0 47.3 McCain +2.3 Michigan 46.0 42.8 Obama +3.2 ...

What's Up with Florida?
Weekly Standard Blog — ... illustrate the same trend. In June and July, all but one showed Obama leading McCain. Now McCain is tied or up in every statewide poll. Even in states McCain is not yet dominating, he seems to be making progress. In Michigan, Obama is still in the lead, but the size of his lead has been cut in half. ...

Palin's Speech Flops among Independents on Focus Group
News — ... were unconvinced by it. All six of the panel's independents gave Palin poor reviews. Democrats and Republicans on the panel were split over Palin's speech, adhering to their party affiliations as they reacted to it. Michigan figures to be a battleground state in the 2008 election, with Obama leading there by four percentage points in recent polls . Read the reactions of the group's independents after the jump. “Sarah Palin came across as the small town girl who made good. I knew that I disagreed with her on some issues before this evening. After listening to her speech … it ...

McCain, Palin To Begin General In Midwest
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — ... . From Wisconsin, McCain and Palin are scheduled to appear at an early evening rally in Sterling Heights, Mich. The northern Detroit suburb includes Chrysler and Ford assembly plants and, like Cedarburg, is in a safe Republican district (Michigan 10). Michigan has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections, with Kerry winning by 3 points and Gore by 5 points in the last two. Obama holds a slightly smaller lead there, with a 4.3-point lead in the RCP Average for Michigan .

Swing-State Tour Ends In Virginia
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — ... and outside Richmond; and on Tuesday and Wednesday, Obama held events in the southwestern corner of the state and in Norfolk. Along with Virginia, McCain is working to defend Colorado, New Mexico and Ohio, all of which Pres. Bush won in 2004. Obama currently leads in Colorado and New Mexico , according to the latest RCP Averages. The two are tied in Ohio , and McCain leads by 2.6 points in Virginia . Obama currently leads in Pennsylvania , Michigan and Wisconsin , the three swing states won by John Kerry that McCain and Palin ...

Insider Advantage: OH, MI, CO, NV
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — ... , McCain leads by 1.8 points. Michigan McCain 45 Obama 44 In the RCP Average , Obama leads by 2 points. Colorado Obama 49 McCain 46 In the ...

Electoral Snapshot: Red States Getting Redder, Blue States Getting Purpler...
Hit & Run — ... It's not all doom and gloom for Obama. So far this month, he's seems to have solidified his narrow margin in Michigan and ...

Battleground Polls
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — ... . Michigan Obama 51 (nc vs. last poll on Sept. 10) McCain 44 (-2) Obama leads by 4.0% in the RCP Average for Michigan . Ohio McCain 50 (+2 vs. last poll on Sept. 14) Obama 46 (+1) McCain leads by 1.8% in the ...

Obama Hits McCain for Owning 13 Cars, One Foreign
News — ... flak from United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger Monday. The Obama campaign is seeking to capitalize on Michigan's anti-foreign-auto sentiments, as it is home to America's largest auto manufacturers. Obama leads McCain in the battelground state by an average of five percentage points.

New State Polls
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — New state polls in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Washington: Michigan - MRG of Lansing McCain 46 Obama 43 Obama leads by 3.7 points in the RCP Average for Michigan Iowa - Marist College Obama 51 McCain 41 Obama leads by 9.4 points in the RCP Average for Iowa New Hampshire - Marist College Obama 51 McCain 45 Obama leads by 3.3 points in the RCP Average for New Hampshire Kansas - SurveyUSA McCain 53 Obama 41 McCain leads by 14.3 points in the RCP Average for Kansas South Carolina - ...

State Poll Dump
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — ... and Michigan. Obama leads in all four. North Carolina - Rasmussen Obama 49 McCain 47 McCain leads by 3.2 points in the RCP Average for North Carolina Wisconsin - Research2000 Obama 49 McCain 43 Obama leads by 3.8 points in the RCP Average for Wisconsin Maine - SurveyUSA Obama 49 McCain 44 Obama leads by 7.6 points in the RCP Average for Maine Michigan - EPIC-MRA Obama 48 McCain 38 Obama leads by 5.1 points in the RCP Average for Michigan

MI Poll: Tied
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — ... from Mason-Dixon (Sept 18-23, LV, MoE +/-4.0%) showing a tie race: Obama 46 McCain 46 Obama's lead is now 4.5% in the RCP Average for Michigan . ...

EC Update 9/25
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — Does NBC Not Trust Its Own Polls? | The RCP Blog Home Page September 25, 2008 EC Update 9/25 Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email Author A quick update on the RCP Electoral Count . Michigan , which moved to a Toss Up just the other day, is back to leaning Obama. West Virginia moved from solid to leaning McCain, and North Carolina moved from leaning McCain to Toss Up. The result is that Obama now leads 228 to 174 , with 136 Toss Ups. Sphere It! |

Even More State Polls
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — ... -- New Strategic Vision polls: Michigan Obama 48 McCain 45 Obama leads by 5.5 points in the RCP Average for Michigan New Hampshire Obama 46 McCain 45 Obama leads by 1.6 points in the ...

Cheerful thought on home economics
Classical Values — ... is authored by "TODD SPANGLER - FREE PRESS WASHINGTON STAFF," but the pollster is in Iowa, polling Michiganders by phone. It's all Greek to me, and I can barely remember any of my high school Latin. It's like, reconciling the above with the overall average poll results at RealPolitics (which show Obama ahead only by 5.2.% overall) makes paying bills and balancing my checkbook look easy! Which is a cheerful thought. So I guess can stop whining now.

Paul Jenkins: Obama and Democrats Fighting Hard on GOP Turf
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com — ... McCain has so little room to maneuver because Democratic states long-targeted by his campaign have mostly been coming home to Obama in recent weeks: he leads by comfortable and growing margins in Michigan and ...

Obama Continues to Make Gains
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — ... his leads in battleground states in the Midwest and Mountain West, and in two crucial states in what is now sometimes referred to as the New South, Virginia and North Carolina. The Midwest Michigan: Coming out of the GOP convention in early September, John McCain closed the gap in the Wolverine State to two points, trailing 47 to 45 in the RCP Average on September 10. Since then, however, Obama has more than tripled his lead, moving out to a 6.6% advantage in Michigan in the current RCP Average , with his support rising to 48.9% while McCain's has dropped to 42.3% Ohio: ...

Hmmm: McCain creeps back to within four in new Gallup
Hot Air » Top Picks — ... and Michigan . Current pessimism meter reading: Nine , indicating pronounced worries of a landslide and elevated levels of heart-ache in anticipation of tomorrow night’s debate. Update: Why would anyone care what poll trends look like a month out? ...

Real Credibility Problems
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right — ... how about North Carolina Senate? RCP presently includes two weeks-old polls from SurveyUSA and Research 2000, whch had shown Elizabeth Dole with a solid lead in her race against Kay Hagan. But they didn't bother to include more recent polls from Elon and Civitas, which show the race essentially tied. Why is one of Mitch McConnell's internal polls included in their Kentucky Senate averages? Why, a week or so ago, did RCP include a poll from the Marketing Resource Group of Lansing, Michigan, which the Detroit News describes ...

McCain-Palin Giving Up on Michigan: Beginning of the End?
FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog — ... Apparently Team McCain is pulling out of Michigan and will concede the state to Barack Obama. Remembering that John Kerry won Michigan in 2004 by 3.4 % and Al Gore in 2000 by 5.2% The latest battleground state polls show McCain-Palin cratering in support. Is this the beginning of the end? Probably. Economic turmoil and McCain’s failure to address the concerns of the American people with regards to the economy have caused this downward spiral. The American electorate are not happy and will punish President Bush and the GOP, as ...

McCain campaign pulls out of Michigan
Sister Toldjah — ... Bottom line is that things looked competitive there for a bit but with the economy in the shape that it’s in right now, growing numbers of Michiganders - bizarrely trusting Democrats on the issue of the economy regardless of years of them running the economy there into the ground - are supporting Barack Obama, who has ...

McCain Pulling Out Of Michigan
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — ... a state whose economy is in tatters. Although Michigan has voted Democratic since Bill Clinton's 1992 victory, Pres. Bush closed the gap in Michigan between the 2000 and 2004 elections, losing to Al Gore by 5 points then to John Kerry by 3 points. Prior to 1992, Michigan went Republican in 5 straight presidential elections. However, McCain has led in only two polls in the state since early June. Obama held two rallies in the state this morning and currently leads by 7.0 points in the RCP Average for Michigan .

McCain Camp Confirms Michigan Report
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — The McCain campaign confirmed an earlier report that the campaign would be pulling resources out of Michigan, a clear sign that the campaign does not like its chances there. Politico first reported the move. "Operations will be scaled back" in Michigan , said McCain political director Mike DuHaime on a conference call with reporters. "It's been the worst state of all the states that are in play. ... It's the obvious state, in my perspective, to come off the list." DuHaime said the campaign would be moving operations to ...

Palin: We shouldn’t pull out of Michigan
Hot Air » Top Picks — ... Parts one and two of a day-long series with Carl Cameron. I admire her pluck but there’s no sense spending her precious time on a lost cause, which Michigan appears to be . If the ‘Cuda wants to commune with blue-collar voters and start a little Palinmania brushfire, the place to do it is Ohio or Minnesota. Exit question: Hey, how about a Malkin/Palin interview? It can happen if you only wish it.

McCain Camp Thinks PA and WI Stronger Than MI. Really?
The Next Right — ... Even with the polls as they stand today, McCain is doing better in Michigan than he deserves to be. McCain should be losing in Michigan by 11.7% based on its 2004 margin and the swing since '04 in the RCP average. Instead, state-specific factors are keeping McCain to within 7 in the RCP average and 7.5 in ...

Survey USA: Obama by 15 in Pennsylvania
Hot Air » Top Picks — ... , four more than the current margin in Michigan , where Maverick’s already abandoned ship. The most alarming number: Obama today leads among PA men and women, young and old, rich and poor, more educated and less educated. McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, pro-life voters, and gun owners. 21% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama ; 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain. Independents break 2:1 for Obama. The ...

Did McCain pull out of Michigan too soon?
Sister Toldjah — Conventional wisdom has it that McCain did the “right thing” in pulling out of Michigan and moving his resources elsewhere (even though he shouldn’t have broadcast it), but new numbers out tonight suggest that may have been premature. First, check out the last several polls that RCP has on Michigan: The first poll you see there is from PPP, which is a Democrat-based group showing BO up by 10. The poll before that, taken over a 9/22-24 is from Detroit Free ...

How Obama Could Still Lose
The Stump — ... . According to RCP, Obama is up 1.5 points nationally since October 2, but nearly 4.8 points in Michigan. ...

Big Ten Battleground Polls
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — ... . Michigan Obama 58 (+10 vs. last poll Sept 14-17) McCain 36 (-8) Obama leads by 18.0% in the RCP Average for Michigan . Minnesota Obama 57 (+10 vs. last poll Sept 14-17) McCain 38 (-7) Obama leads by 12.3% in the ...

No — I Do Not Write Under The Name “Noam Scheiber” at The New Republic. He Just Steals His Stuff From Me.
Patterico's Pontifications — ... and return to the ranks as an otherwise undistinuished US Senator from Illinois. 1.) We’re at the point in the race when national trends may start diverging from trends in battleground states where McCain is still competing. After all, having an active campaign in a state makes a big difference. Just look at Michigan since McCain pulled out in early October. According to RCP, Obama is up 1.5 points nationally since October 2, but nearly 4.8 points in Michigan. McCain is husbanding his resources for the absolute minimum ...

Poll Dump
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — ... | The RCP Blog Home Page November 2nd, 2008 Poll Dump Posted by Tom Bevan | Email This | Permalink | Email Author A boatload of state polls out this morning: CO Denver Post/Mason-Dixon Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5 IA Des Moines Register Obama 54, McCain 37 Obama +17 KY Mason-Dixon McCain 51, Obama 42 McCain +9 ME Rasmussen Obama 56, McCain 43 Obama +13 MI Detroit Free Press Obama 53, McCain 37 Obama +16 MN Star Tribune ...