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Poll: Obama Has 2-to-1 Advantage With First-Time Voters
The Page by Mark Halperin — ... NBC/WSJ/MySpace poll shows the Democrat leading among new and lapsed voters, 69%-27%. Suggests these voters have a “much more positive view of Obama” than average voters.       ...

Generation We
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan — ... We're told that "conservative" leaders are preparing a post-election summit, which will focus on Sarah Palin's future as the avatar of the right. Those "conservatives" might want to check out the next generation: ...

Tracking Poll Update
Daily Kos — ... The relevant comment of the day was posted on First Read, as McCain's pollster, Bill McInturff tries to make the case that McCain can win. ...

10/30 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 50, McCain 45
Daily Kos — ... give the corresponding responses. Here's Nate Silver: Long story short ... given optimistic assumptions (McCain wins 2/3 of white undecideds, 100 percent of third-party support collapses), the undecided vote is worth a net of about a point for McCain. Given what I'd consider to be more neutral assumptions, there's no particular reason to think that the undecided vote favors him. Just to show there's no unanimity, Chuck Todd: Also, McInturff believes something we've argued for some time: ...

CBS/NY Times: Obama by 11, 52-41 (And A Tracker Update)
Daily Kos — ... Without being complacent, it's tough to see, with another day off the calendar, how McCain wins. That is, unless you believe fervently in the Bradley effect (I don't) or that this is 2004 (it isn't.) If you believe both, your name might be Bill McInturff, McCain's pollster, who has a vested interest in spinning a close race. ...

Variables Working Against a Republican Revival
The Moderate Voice — ... ascendance will begin again. Brooks may be right about another, eventual “cycle of conservative ascendance.” I’m just not convinced that ascendance will be helmed by the shaky hands of the aging GOP. 3. Demographic Revolution As widely reported, the U.S. is in the midst of a meaningful ethnic and generational shift — and these non-white, non-old voters are rather sour on the Republican brand. Looking first at younger voters: A very ominous sign for the Republican Party is how ...