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firstread.msnbc.msn.com - 11/3/2008

First thoughts: One day, eight points

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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann *** Obama has a clear lead: With just a day left until Election Day, Obama holds an eight-point lead over McCain among likely voters, 51%-43%, according to the final national NBC/WSJ poll before the election. That’s down slightly from Obama’s 53%-to-42% advantage from almost two weeks ago. Still, to put his current lead into perspective, the last NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004 presidential election showed Bush with a slim ...

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In the polls, Barack Obama has quite a streak going
Top of the Ticket — ... Also today, Montanaro's hard-working colleagues who crank out MSNBC's "First Read" political note break down the final NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll, looking behind the numbers that give Obama an 8 percentage point lead (51% to 43%). Here are the specifics that leapt out to us: ...

Second Things
Vodkapundit — ... : MSNBC’s “First Read” on how the early voting results seem to mirror its overall poll results: One more thing: 30% say they’ve already voted, and those voters break [for Obama] by an identical 51%-43% margin. Hmm. Is this breakdown in early voting really such good news for Obama? You’d think, given the enthusiasm gap between the two candidates’ supporters, that Obama voters would tend to be early voters. That means the voters left to vote on election day will be the more undecided, more pro-McCain voters, no? The final results should be less pro-Obama than the early results. ...