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Obama Infomercial Bounce?
Politics Daily —
... when people try to read significance into a single poll. Lately, Matt Drudge--and his band of lemming-like followers--has been pointing to an outdated Gallup model that shows, surprise, that the race for president is a statistical dead heat. Well, if we were to place any stock in that poll, the Gallup Daily (Traditional), as Drudge followers argue, then we might conclude that Barack Obama's infomercial gave him a huge bounce. ...
Gallup Daily: Obamas Lead Widens Some on All Bases
Democratic Underground Latest Breaking News —
... a substantial lead over McCain in last night's polling, however no greater than what Gallup found on Wednesday. Obama's lead among expanded likely voters is only slightly greater than that seen among traditional likely voters. He now leads McCain by nine-points, 52% to 43%, using this looser definition that does not factor in whether respondents have voted in past elections, but strictly relies on their reported level of interest and intention to vote in the 2008 election. Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111679/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-L...
Polls Tightening!
Oliver Willis —
... Sen. Obama is up by 8 in Gallup’s traditional voter model. That’s the most McCain friendly measure of the state of the race. Perhaps 30 minutes of prime time tv is a good thing for a candidate (duh!). ...
Gallup Trad Turnout Model: Obama By 8
TalkLeft —
... This is a very interesting development - the Gallup Expanded and Traditional turnout models have basically converged -the traditional turnout model has Obama by 8 - 51-43 while the expanded model has Obama by 9, 52-43. Obama leads among all registered voters by 11, 52-41. ...
Race Opening Up Again?
Comments from Left Field —
The Gallup Daily Tracker has Obama continuing to open up his lead over McCain.
Believe it or not, this slight shift back towards Obama seems to be in tracking with a number of other polls which show the race remaining static or opening back up by a small amount with Rasmussen serving as the one poll showing the race narrowing by a tiny margin.
This is, to me, somewhat expected given the Obama infomercial that ran on Wednesday. Even if that half hour tv spot wasn’t the greatest thing in political advertising, it ...
Video: Da Coach introduces Da ‘Cuda
Hot Air » Top Picks —
... as a motivator. New Gallup poll: The One’s netted three points overnight from his 30-minute Obamapalooza special to lead by eight. Exit question: How will McCain fare in the Super Bowl? ...
TPM Track Composite: Obama's Lead Expands Again
TPM Election Central —
Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. Barack Obama lead is steadily ticking back up again, suggesting that the recent period in which the race was starting to tighten may be over:
• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% lead from yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 47%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-46% Obama lead from yesterday.
• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, compared to ...
Things That Make Polls Go D'Oh
Wizbang —
... . That's 7.8 million voters changing their minds in that time. Has McCain's campaign done anything different that would explain that shift to you? And if not, why is the poll changing so drastically now that the race is coming to an end? Gallup is still admitting they are clueless, as they continue to publish three separate models of voter opinion . You really should ask yourself, if Gallup was on top of things this year, why did they trash the original model in favor of one using unprecedented demographic assumptions, then use that same data to backtrack and try to reflect a ...
Obama's lead still strong: Gallup
The Swamp —
by Frank James
Sen. John McCain and his team have talked in recent days about closing the polling gap with Sen. Barack Obama.
That may be true in some of the battleground state polls though even that is under some dispute between partisans on both sides.
But the Gallup Poll is suggesting that the race is not tightening, at least not on a national level.
An excerpt of Gallup's report:
PRINCETON, NJ -- The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the ...
Gallup's Older Model
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan —
You know: the one Drudge featured in bold red!! as showing a near tie. Well, check it out today.
BREAKING NEWS: According To A High Placed DC Insider, Ted Stevens Was Not Convicted After All
DownWithTyranny! —
... , across America-- despite McCain and his media allies' misleading statements-- Obama's lead in the polls is increasing. Even the neo-fascist editorial page of the Wall Street Journal forced itself to acknowledge, via Mavericky former Reagan speech writer Peggy Noonan, that ...
HuffPollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For November 1
The Huffington Post | Full News Feed —
... A Research 2000 representative explained the methodology of the poll, saying that it was a rolling poll with a baseline of 1,100 likely voters, taking approximately 355 to 365 calls per night and throwing out the oldest numbers. "I would say that [we take] one in every eight calls on average," he said, attributing this rate to a combination of callers "telling us to go to hell" and callers not meeting their standard of a "likely voter" through a name recognition test.
Gallup Daily Poll Conducted October 28-October 30
Results: McCain 43%, Obama ...
HuffPollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For November 1
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com —
... A Research 2000 representative explained the methodology of the poll, saying that it was a rolling poll with a baseline of 1,100 likely voters, taking approximately 355 to 365 calls per night and throwing out the oldest numbers. "I would say that [we take] one in every eight calls on average," he said, attributing this rate to a combination of callers "telling us to go to hell" and callers not meeting their standard of a "likely voter" through a name recognition test.
Gallup Daily Poll Conducted October 28-October 30
Results: McCain 43%, Obama ...
The Polls- 11/1
TalkLeft —
DKos/R2000 has Obama by 7, 51-44. The last two nights of polling have been +8 and +9. I predict that come Tuesday morning, this poll will predict a 9 point Obama win. Ras ticks one point in Obama's direction to a 5 point lead, 51-46. Ras seems headed to predicting a 5 point Obama win come Tuesday. No tracker has McCain closer than 4 (IBD/TIPP has Obama by 4.4, Battleground has Obama by 4) Most have the race closer to 9 ( See Gallup, WaPo and Hotline.) Here is our fun with Zogby moment of the day - today Zogby's poll ...
HuffPollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For November 2
The Huffington Post | Full News Feed —
... A Research 2000 representative explained the methodology of the poll, saying that it was a rolling poll with a baseline of 1,100 likely voters, taking approximately 355 to 365 calls per night and throwing out the oldest numbers. "I would say that [we take] one in every eight calls on average," he said, attributing this rate to a combination of callers "telling us to go to hell" and callers not meeting their standard of a "likely voter" through a name recognition test.
Gallup Daily Poll Conducted October 28-October 30
Results: McCain 43%, Obama ...
HuffPollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For November 3
The Huffington Post | Full News Feed —
... A Research 2000 representative explained the methodology of the poll, saying that it was a rolling poll with a baseline of 1,100 likely voters, taking approximately 355 to 365 calls per night and throwing out the oldest numbers. "I would say that [we take] one in every eight calls on average," he said, attributing this rate to a combination of callers "telling us to go to hell" and callers not meeting their standard of a "likely voter" through a name recognition test.
Gallup Daily Poll Conducted October 28-October 30
Results: McCain 43%, Obama ...
