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Flopping Aces —
... Since the last debate, McCain has seen a slight recovery in 3 of the 4 nationwide polls which I follow daily. Several, like the Gallup traditional voting model, are now showing him within the margin of error. Some of that improvement began despite criticism of the angry statements by some at McCain rallies and the stock market plunge of last week. ...
MORNING READ
News —
... headlines the Drudge Report on Friday morning and gives conservative bloggers reason to hope. But the poll model isn't Gallup's most credible and yields results that don't mesh with other surveys, notes one political prognosticator on the left. The Washington Post has endorsed Obama for president "without ambivalence," pleasing most liberal bloggers. Though there's less than three weeks left in the campaign, McCain and Obama took a break Thursday to yuk it up, bloggers note. The Gallup poll of likely voters shows Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 47 percent, a difference ...
Hello McCain...
blonde sagacity —
...if you had been THIS GUY throughout your campaign, you'd be WAY ahead in the polls (though the latest Gallup poll shows Obama with a slim 2 pt. lead): ...
McCain Edging Up in Polls By Describing WHO Obama REALLY Is
Flopping Aces —
... may have Obama up by five, but the traditional voter model at Gallup has only a 2 point spread in Obama’s favor which is matched by a similar result at ...
AP Calls Switzerland and France for Obama
JammieWearingFool —
... , conducted this month by Knowledge Networks, shows that only 5 percent more people view him favorably compared with unfavorably, a 16-point drop from polls take in mid-September. Just one little problem with that poll. It's of 873 Democrats and 650 Republicans and shows Obama leading only 44-42% . Meanwhile, Gallup's likely voters numbers are 49-47% . So how exactly is McCain fading while he's gaining? This they do not explain. Labels: ...
This Race Ain't Over Yet
A Chequer-Board of Nights and Days —
... Pew Research Center survey gives him a seven-point lead. But an Investor's Business Daily-TIPP poll shows Sen. Obama with a nearly four-point advantage. Recent polls by Rasmussen Reports and Zogby International show Sen. Obama leading by four and five points, respectively. One Gallup poll shows the Democratic nominee's lead has shrunk since last week, falling to six points from 10. "Clearly, the race has tightened," says Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Daily. Gallup's likely voter poll shows an Obama lead of only two points, well within the margin of error. ...
This Race Ain't Over Yet
RedState: Conservative News and Community —
... gives him a seven-point lead. But an Investor's Business Daily-TIPP
poll shows Sen. Obama with a nearly four-point advantage. Recent
polls by Rasmussen Reports and Zogby International show Sen. Obama
leading by four and five points, respectively.
One Gallup poll shows the Democratic nominee's lead has shrunk
since last week, falling to six points from 10. "Clearly, the race
has tightened," says Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup
Daily.
Gallup's
likely voter poll shows an Obama lead of only two points, well
within the margin of error. ...
Obama Plummets Among Independents, Lead Down to Three Points
Stop The ACLU —
... into the 3 point margin of error. Gallup is showing the same spread with likely voters. McCain has gained in Ohio as well, making it a ...
Switching Cities with Obama
The Moderate Voice —
... But then I remember several other things: the narrow differential in Gallup’s tracking poll using its traditional methodology for likely voters (past behavior plus current intent); the delays in absentee ballots reaching our son and his roomates; the vote-tampering concerns (justified or not) expressed by the father from New York; the impact of ...
Polls: Obama’s Lead Drops
Stop The ACLU —
... Obama leads McCain by 49 percent to 44 percent among likely U.S. voters in the daily tracking poll, which has a margin of error of 2.9 points. Obama’s lead has dropped over the last three days after hitting a high of 12 points on Thursday.“Things are trending back for McCain. His numbers are rising and Obama’s are dropping on a daily basis. There seems to be a direct correlation between this and McCain talking about the economy,” pollster John Zogby said. Thank you Joe the plumber. Gallup is showing the same spread. For some very good optimistic poll analysis see ...
What to Make of the Polls
The Anonymous Liberal —
... On the other hand, Gallup--another venerable polling organization--now shows Obama ahead by just 2 points, 49-47 in their daily tracking poll (under their traditional likely voter model). There have been several other polls this week showing a similarly narrow lead, in the 1-5 point range. ...
Panic Attack at Daily Kos Over Stunning New Gallup Poll With Obama Lead at Only 2 Points
NewsBusters.org - Exposing Liberal Media Bias —
... Your humble correspondent had figured the polls would start to narrow in the final week of the campaign but this stunning new Gallup poll shows the lead in the Presidential race narrowing much more rapidly than he had assumed. The latest Gallup poll of traditional likely voters shows the race has narrowed down to 49 percent for Barack Obama and 47 percent for John McCain. Here is Gallup's explanation of this poll: ...
Disregard National Polls
Politics Daily —
... ! Obama is in a virtual tie says an outdated Gallup model! Even though we know better, we, the glassy-eye fish of the electorate, bite into that bait every single time as though it was the first time we'd ever eyed a worm. ...
Election 2008: Signed, Sealed & Almost Delivered
The Moderate Voice —
... all intents and purposes, a very real indication that Barack Obama has sealed the deal.
Gallup’s traditional “likely voter” model is the most conservative of its polls in that it has been battle tested over and over in past elections and factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention.
If McCain had a snowball’s chance in Hell, it would show a closer contest. Instead, it shows Obama up by eight points.
More here.
Speaking of blizzards, there are beaucoup stories out there about how McCain could ...
Funky Gallup
Wizbang —
... model, and 52-42 in the 'traditional voter' model. Now, stop and think about why that almost has to be bogus. First, Gallup is saying that McCain lost 5 points of support and Obama gained 3 points of support in just 5 days. Does that heavy swing of support make sense? And if it does, why does ...
