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gallup.com - 10/16/2008

Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, McCain 43%

— gallup.com — PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Monday through Wednesday shows Barack Obama... with a 49%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters. ubsz Almost all of the interviews in this three-day rolling average were ... (more) Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, McCain 43%

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Barack Obama

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17

gallup.com - 10/15/2008

Gallup Daily: Before Final Debate, Obama Leads by 7

— gallup.com — PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report shows Barack Obama continuing to lead John... McCain, now by seven percentage points among registered voters, 50% to 43%. 1_pwmjmlmuqsyaykrd872w These results, based on Oct. 12-14 polling, ... (more) Gallup Daily: Before Final Debate, Obama Leads by 7

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Barack Obama

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15

gallup.com - 10/15/2008

Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Traditional)

— gallup.com — Copyright © 2008 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. Gallup ® , A 8 ™ , Business Impact... Analysis ™ , CE 11 ® , Clifton StrengthsFinder ® , the 34 Clifton StrengthsFinder theme names, Customer Engagement Index ™ , Drop Club ® , Emotional Economy ™ , ... (more) Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Traditional)

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TPM Track Composite: Obama's Lead Holds Steady In First Day Of Post-Debate Trackers
TPM Election Central — Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. With one day of post-debate sampling now incorporated into the three-day tracking poll, there hasn't been much of a change so far in Barack Obama's big lead: • Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 40%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-41% Obama lead from ...

National Tracking Polls
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com — This is where the national daily tracking polls stand as of today: Rasmussen : Obama 50 (nc), McCain 46 (nc) Diageo/Hotline : Obama 50 (+1), McCain 40 (-1) GW/Battleground : Obama 49 (-1), McCain 45 (+1) Reuters/C-Span/Zogby : Obama 49 (nc), McCain 44 (nc) Gallup (Traditional LV model) : Obama 49 (nc), McCain 47 (nc) Gallup (Expanded LV model) : Obama 51 (nc), McCain 45 (nc) (change since yesterday) *Gallup Tracking "Traditional" and "Expanded" Likely Voter models are weighted at 50%, so that the survey only counts once in the RCP National ...

Hope and change: Obama 44, McCain 42, says new AP poll
Hot Air » Top Picks — ... Barone thinks the actual spread among voters is probably eight or nine points, which means McCain might in fact be doing even better than the new data indicates: [image] Wave seven, which would have been sampled around a week ago, has a 12-point Democratic spread and a two-point lead for McCain , at a moment when virtually every other poll in the country was showing Obama up by five or six points. Make of it what you will. Rasmussen and Gallup? Still four points and two points among likelies, respectively, although Gallup’s “expanded” model puts it at six. Exit ...

Don’t Believe The Hype in the Press — This One Ain’t Over. The Polls Tell The Story.
Patterico's Pontifications — ... and coming out of the debate.     The polling for Sat., Sun., Mon, released on Tues morning, was Obama +6  in the “traditional” model for LV, and +10 in the “expanded” model for LV  (higher than normal minority and young voter turnout).  Today those same numbers are +2 and +6.  That’s an ENORMOUS 4 point swing in 72 hours.   So what does Gallup have to say in the little press blurb they put out with each poll?  ...

HuffPollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For October 18
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com — ... Sources: General Election Poll: Gallup Daily Tracking The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 14-16, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,805 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 2,155 "traditional" likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention and past voting behavior), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.   Horoscopes: ...

HuffPollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For October 18
The Huffington Post | Full News Feed — ... Sources: General Election Poll: Gallup Daily Tracking The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 14-16, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,805 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 2,155 "traditional" likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention and past voting behavior), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.   Horoscopes: ...

Trial-Heat Election Model Predicts 52.7 McCain Victory
Stop The ACLU — ... is that trial-heat models don’t assume retrospective evaluations as a valid predictor of voter outcomes. What’s key is that candidates matter, but also that open-seat elections are more closely decided presidential races (than when an incumbent is running for reelection), and that “dead-heat” contests are more likely in a open-seat election within a competitive party system environment.Frankly, that sounds a lot like the state of the 2008 campaign is it now stands. As of today, Gallup shows a virtual dead-heat in the presidential horse race, with Barack Obama leading John ...