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TPM Track Composite: Obama Has Big Lead, But Possibly Narrowing
TPM Election Central —
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Going into last night's debate, Barack Obama's big lead over John McCain may have been narrowing a bit, though he was still solidly ahead:
• Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 52%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 49%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, unchanged from ...
Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, McCain 43%
Democratic Underground Latest Breaking News —
... through Wednesday shows Barack Obama with a 49%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters. Almost all of the interviews in this three-day rolling average were conducted before Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate at Hofstra University, which began at 9 p.m. ET. It will be several days before the full impact of this debate can be measured in the three-day rolling average, although its initial impact might be apparent as early as Friday's report. Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49... [image] [image]
Gallup
The Corner on National Review Online —
[image] [image] NRO BLOG ROW | THE CORNER | ARCHIVES SEARCH E-MAIL PRINT RSS [image] [image] Thursday, October 16, 2008 [image] Gallup [ Kathryn Jean Lopez ] Has the race within the margin of error. 10/16 01:28 PM [image] [image] [image] © National Review Online 2008. All Rights Reserved. Home | Search | NR / Digital | Donate | Media Kit | Contact Us
Gallup Poll: Presidential Race Continues to Tighten
FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog —
Barack Obama maintains a 6 point lead but is now under 50 %.
But, among likely voters the gap is now 2 points:
The race is definitley tightening and Team Obama realizes that their lead in New Hampshire was lost at the ...
Polls: McCain gains among likely voters in both Gallup and Rasmussen
Hot Air » Top Picks —
... , his best showing this month, and 49/47 in Gallup’s model of traditional likely voters. In the expanded model, which tries to account for the higher turnout among new voters that will probably occur this year, it’s 51/45. The bad news? Neither tracker includes data gathered after the debate, which means he’s headed for another downturn if the ...
Obligatory: Obama's Edge with Likely Voters Narrows to Two
Ace of Spades HQ —
Obligatory: Obama's Edge with Likely Voters Narrows to Two That's the traditional likely voter model. The HopeyChangey model of course has him up by more, but no one ever trusts that -- if everyone who claimed they would "definitely" vote did in fact vote, pollsters wouldn't have to ask questions like "how many times have you voted in the past six years" and "do you know the location of your nearest polling station" to ferret out the real likelies. Obama will do better than likely voter models suggest -- but not nearly as good as the HopeyChangey "if you say you're likely to ...
National Tracking Polls
Real Clear Politics - TIME.com —
This is where the national daily tracking polls stand as of today: Rasmussen : Obama 50 (nc), McCain 46 (+1) Diageo/Hotline : Obama 49 (nc), McCain 41 (nc) GW/Battleground : Obama 50 (-1), McCain 44 (+1) Reuters/C-Span/Zogby : Obama 49 (+1), McCain 44 (nc) Gallup (Traditional LV model*) : Obama 49 (nc), McCain 47 (+1) Gallup (Expanded LV model*) : Obama 51 (-1), McCain 45 (+1) (change since yesterday) *Gallup Tracking "Traditional" and "Expanded" Likely Voter models are weighted at 50%, so that the survey only counts once in the RCP National ...
New Polls--Room for Hope?
The Discerning Texan —
... , his best showing this month, and 49/47 in Gallup’s model of traditional likely voters. In the expanded model, which tries to account for the higher turnout among new voters that will probably occur this year, it’s 51/45. The bad news? Neither tracker includes data gathered after the debate, which means he’s headed for another downturn if the ...
The Latest Polls: Obama’s Lead Decreases
PoliGazette —
... and
Gallup Poll
John McCain has had a reasonable week, not closing the gap, but slowly making progress nonetheless. ...
Today's Polls, 10/16
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right —
... that were in the field this week shows a race that close. Nor do either of the alternate versions of Gallup's model, including the so-called Likely Voters II model that I find most credible. (Drudge, of course, had no interest in featuring the ...
Can McCain Make a Come Back?
Stop The ACLU —
... and Gallup and is within the margin of error. These polls didn’t include data from voters after the debate, and that is something in McCain’s favor. Obama is 49 and McCain 47 among likely voters in the Gallup poll. Second thing: McCain won last night’s debate. I don’t care who the media tell you won, or what focus groups said, McCain won. Everyone is talking about Joe the plumber today, and the always classy left are going bonkers trying to discredit him and ruin his life. Obama’s socialist tax plan has been exposed into the spotlight by a man that has come to symbolize the ...
HuffPollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For October 17
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com —
... Sources:
General Election Poll: Gallup Daily Tracking
The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 13-15, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,786 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 2,143 "traditional" likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention and past voting behavior), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Horoscopes: ...
HuffPollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For October 17
The Huffington Post | Full News Feed —
... Sources:
General Election Poll: Gallup Daily Tracking
The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 13-15, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,786 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 2,143 "traditional" likely voters (based on the model taking into account current voting intention and past voting behavior), the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Horoscopes: ...
ABC News: Obama Holds 'A Double-Digit Lead in Most National Polls'
NewsBusters.org - Exposing Liberal Media Bias —
... to hold a double-digit lead in most national polls, it is the results in individual states that are all important."
The emphasis on Obama's supposedly huge, possibly insurmountable lead is used by some in the mainstream media to suggest the inevitability of a Democratic win. But you have to wonder, at least in this instance, what polls ABC News is examining. Obama enjoys a lead in most opinion surveys, but it's not as large as Gibson claimed.
Thursday's Gallup Daily poll showed a 49% to 43% Obama lead over McCain. Rasmussen had it at ...
Media Declares Race Over as McCain Creeps Within Four Points
JammieWearingFool —
... . So why the great urgency by media pundits to declare the race over? Are they worried? You bet they are. Sure, there's 18 days to go and the RCP average is 6.6 points, but with Gallup likely voters at two points , why on earth would anyone ...
McCain's Chances
Sound Politics —
... may be overstating the margin of the race. Lots of pundits are talking the the IBD/TIPP tracking poll that nailed the 2004 race (only 0.4% off), which has the race at only a 3% gap. Rasmussen, another accurate pollster from 2004, has shown a shrinking margin for Obama over the course of the last week - resting at 4% now. And, Gallup is offering an oddity . Their traditional and widely respected "likely voter" model shows only a 2% margin of this typing. Their expanded model which tries to account for the influx of new voters possible in this race based on the increased number ...
10/17: Not Your Average Joe
Blogometer —
... 's Allahpundit wonders: "What if the feds come back and report that they've found some cases of fraud but nothing on a mass scale? Will that conclusion be accepted or is the 'ACORN's fixing the election' meme already too far gone?" MCCAIN: It Ain't Over Yet Conservative bloggers are buzzing about what they perceive to be McCain's momentum, especially after yesterday's Gallup tracking poll showed Obama leading McCain by only 2 points among "traditional" likely voters: On the left side of the blogosphere, ...
Gallup: Men Responsible for Obama’s Recent Improvement?
Weekly Standard Blog —
... These numbers, however, are only based on data from October 6-12, and don’t include the most recent tracking data Gallup released last night. ...
