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Gallup Daily: Obama Lead Among Likely Voters 5 to 7 Points - Now up 50% to 45% in traditional model
Democratic Underground Latest Breaking News —
Source: Gallup PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over John McCain in both Gallup likely voter models, according to Oct. 27-29 Gallup Poll Daily tracking. In the traditional model, which defines likely voters based on current voting intention and past voting behavior, Obama holds a 50% to 45% lead. In the expanded model, in which only current voting intentions are considered, his lead is 51% to 44%. Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111658/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Le... Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for ...
Tightening!
Oliver Willis —
In Gallup’s old likely voter model - the most McCain friendly projection - Obama has moved his lead back up to 5%.
One thing I’ve noticed is that in many swing states - Colorado, Virginia, and in some polls Nevada - Obama is over 50%. Back in 2004, that was not the case with Sen. Kerry. So, in a lot of these cases even in the impossible likelihood that all undecideds went McCain the state would still go Obama. But the likelihood of all undecideds going McCain ain’t so good. It’s a good buffer to have.
...
Gallup
The Corner on National Review Online —
[image] [image] NRO BLOG ROW | THE CORNER | ARCHIVES SEARCH E-MAIL PRINT RSS [image] [image] Thursday, October 30, 2008 [image] Gallup [ Rich Lowry ] Traditional up to 5, expanded holds at 7 . 10/30 01:06 PM [image] [image] [image] © National Review Online 2008. All Rights Reserved. Home | Search | NR / Digital | Donate | Media Kit | Contact Us
Fox News poll: McCain nets five points since last week, now within three
Hot Air » Top Picks —
... and Gallup . The five-point gain overall coincides with a five-point gain among Republicans, only 83 percent of whom were committed to Maverick last week. Is the Joe the Plumber rhetoric working? Maybe, maybe not: The economy continues to far outdistance all other issues as the top priority for voters this year, and while Obama maintains an advantage on the economy, McCain has chipped away at those numbers. By an 8-point margin Obama is seen as the candidate who voters trust to handle the economy, down from a 15-point edge… More voters trust Obama to handle the issue of ...
The Race Is Tightening, And That’s A Good Thing!
Comments from Left Field —
Contrary to the Gallup Daily Tracker which actually has the national gap between McCain and Obama widening, the Pollster aggregated trends show the race for the White House narrowing and believe it or not, this is actually good news for Obama.
This assertion may seem counter-intuitive at first; after all, don’t you want to go into election day with as big of a lead as possible? Not necessarily… especially if you are running the kind of campaign that Obama is running which heavily relies upon voter turn out. ...
TPM Track Composite: Obama's Lead Edges Up
TPM Election Central —
Here's our daily composite of the six major national tracking polls. The recent tightening in the race appears to have stopped for today, with Obama's lead expanding slightly:
• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-47% Obama lead from yesterday.
• ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.5% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo ...
Is This The Obama McCain Electoral Vote Map For Election Day?
The Moderate Voice —
... 47 percent said he would lead in a new direction. It’s an association that cuts straight to the vote: Barack Obama’s support reaches 90 percent among those who believe McCain would continue in Bush’s direction, and more than three-quarters of such voters see McCain as a risky choice.
*Fox News has Obama only ahead by three now, with McCain making steady gains (but some are questioning whether Fox has changed its methodology).
*The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll has Obama holding steady with a 5 to 7 point lead.
* ...
On Race Tightening
PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts —
... was writing about it yesterday, and I heard it discussed on an NPR program (I am not sure, which one) late this morning). An example of actual numbers from earlier in the week: the Gallup daily tracking poll had a two point gap, and then a three point gap (today it is back to five). Such numbers, along with some internal polling, has led McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, to put a rosier spin on the numbers than has been the case of late (some discussion of this can be found in ...
Turnout Assumptions: The Truth Is In Between
Open Left - Front Page —
... and invalid ballots, probably about 75% of registered voters attempted to cast a vote for President in 2004. It seems reasonable to assume that number will be either the same, or a bit higher, in 2008. However, both of the likely voter models in the current edition of the Gallup tracking poll shoot far on either side of that number. With 2,800 registered voters in their survey, Gallup uses 1,825 for their "traditional" likely voter model (65.2%) and 2,437 for their "expanded" likely voter model (87.0%). Both numbers strike me as highly unlikely, with one far too low and one far ...
HuffPollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For October 31
The Huffington Post | Full News Feed —
... Sources:
General Election Poll: Gallup Daily Tracking
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 27-29, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,800 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points.
Horoscopes: horoscopes.co.uk
Weather: Weather.com
Betting Lines: Intrade ...
HuffPollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For October 31
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com —
... Sources:
General Election Poll: Gallup Daily Tracking
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 27-29, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,800 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points.
Horoscopes: horoscopes.co.uk
Weather: Weather.com
Betting Lines: Intrade ...
The Polls - 10/31
TalkLeft —
... has Obama by 6, 48-42. Gallup Expanded has Obama by 7, 51-44. The race has been static for a week. The spread each pollster shows depends on turnout models but no poll shows McCain closer than 3. And some polls show as much as a 15 point spread. I stick to my months long prediction of a 6 point Obama win. ...
