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Obama Hangs On To Three-Point Lead In Today's National Polls
TPM Election Central —
Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, with Barack Obama holding on to a narrow lead over John McCain:
• Gallup: Obama 47%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 47%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, they were tied 48%-48%
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 47%-43%.
• Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, ...
Is the shape of the race "altered"
Power Line —
An ABC News/Washington Post poll has Barack Obama leading John McCain by a a 52-43 margin. Noting that this is Obama's "first clear lead" during the campaign, the Post declares that the "shape of the race" is "altered." But the Post may be overstating things. First, the tracking polls don't show a substantial alteration Rasmussen's has Obama up by 2 points; Gallup's has him up by 3. This is familiar territory. In addition, an Ipsos-McClatchy poll has Obama leading by a narrow 44-43 margin, while ARG has Obama up by 2 points. ...
Fox News poll: Obama 45, McCain 39, nine-point swing since convention
Hot Air » Top Picks —
... is that young cell-phoners lean more heavily towards Obama than young landliners do, which means the pollsters might not be weighting the latter enough. Follow the link to the Pew survey and focus on the second table. We’re talking about a 10-point spread, which doesn’t feel like much given how relatively few cell-phone-only voters there are but in a close election might be decisive. Assuming, that is, that The One can get them to turn out. Exit question good news: Gallup is unchanged from yesterday, and NPR’s survey of 14 battleground states actually has ...
Outlier?
Comments from Left Field —
... At this point, you may be wondering why I’m not including the daily trackers in my analysis. After all, Gallup daily only has Obama up by three points. Daily trackers tend to be more useful for trend analysis, but because of the three day rolling average (that is, every data point is a compilation of three different interviews with the oldest being dropped off on a daily basis) are less useful in catching an early indication of a radical shift in public opinion–the old tends to mute new data, meaning that you’ll have to wait a few days for the ...
HuffPollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For September 25
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com —
... 1200 likely voters polled over two days.
"Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": An ARG representative said,"
For the nationwide survey conducted September 20-22:
Total adults contacted: 5,310
Total adults screened: 2,075*
Total failing screen or dropping out: 875
Total sample size: 1,200
* Some adults screened themselves out prior to the actual screen (e.g., not registered to vote, not planning to vote)."
Gallup Daily Poll Conducted September 21-September 23
Results: McCain 44%, ...
HuffPollstrology: Candidates' Horoscopes, Polls And More For September 25
The Huffington Post | Full News Feed —
... 1200 likely voters polled over two days.
"Can you please give us the response and refusal rates for your most recent national poll?": An ARG representative said,"
For the nationwide survey conducted September 20-22:
Total adults contacted: 5,310
Total adults screened: 2,075*
Total failing screen or dropping out: 875
Total sample size: 1,200
* Some adults screened themselves out prior to the actual screen (e.g., not registered to vote, not planning to vote)."
Gallup Daily Poll Conducted September 21-September 23
Results: McCain 44%, ...
9/25 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 49, McCain 43
Daily Kos —
... days prior to posting, with R2K (ours) from today and the others from yesterday. Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV Research 2000: 49 43 3 LV Diageo/Hotline: 48 42 3.2 RV Rasmussen: 49 47 2 LV Gallup: 47 44 2 ...
The Polls - 9/25
TalkLeft —
The DKos/R2000 poll (9/22-24) has Obama up 6, 49-43. NBC/WSJ poll (9/19-22) has Obama by 2, 48-46. Fox/Opinion Dynamics (9/22-23) has Obama by 6, 45-39. Gallup Tracker 9/21-23 has Obama by 3. Hotline 9/21-23 has Obama by 6, 48-42. LATimes/Bloomberg 9/19-22) has Obama by 4, 49-45. ABC/WaPo 9/19-22) has Obama up 9, 52-43. CNN/Opinion Research 9/19-21 has Obama up 4, 51-47. Ipsos/McClatchey (9/18-22) has Obama up 1, 44-43. Ras (9/21-23) has Obama up 2, 49-47. That is 10 polls that show Obama leading from anywhere ...
