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centerforpolitics.org - 8/21/2008
HOW THE CONVENTION BALL BOUNCES, Crystal Ball, U.Va.
—
Bounces are normal but not universal. In all twelve cases, the GOP nominee got a bounce, and the same was true in nine of twelve conventions for the Democrat. Lyndon Johnson had already peaked in 1964, at about the level of the vote he actually received on election day (61 percent), so no statistical change was seen from pre- to post-convention. George McGovern's disastrous convention in 1972, ...

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The Moderate Voice:  Sabato’s Crystal Ball: HOW THE CONVENTION BALL BOUNCES

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan:  Bouncy, Bouncy, Bouncy

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Sabato’s Crystal Ball: HOW THE CONVENTION BALL BOUNCES
The Moderate Voice — ... Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Larry J. Sabato says, HOW THE CONVENTION BALL BOUNCES: Convention bounces in recent history ...

Bouncy, Bouncy, Bouncy
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan — Larry Sabato warns: Recent history suggests that there is a better than even chance we'll be misled by the post-convention bounces in 2008. Yet forests will be lost to produce the newsprint for the stories about the overarching significance of 2008's post-convention bounces. And the "tubes" that comprise the internet (in the immortal description of now-indicted Alaska U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens) will be clogged with breathless analysis of the same numbers. (Hat tip: Clive Crook) ...

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