Email Story

HOW THE CONVENTION BALL BOUNCES, Crystal Ball, U.Va.

The Moderate Voice found this 8/21/2008 on centerforpolitics.org

Bounces are normal but not universal. In all twelve cases, the GOP nominee got a bounce, and the same was true in nine of twelve conventions for the Democrat. Lyndon Johnson had already peaked in 1964, at about the level of the vote he actually received on election day (61 percent), so no statistical change was seen from pre- to post-convention. George McGovern's disastrous convention in 1972, ...