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The long haul
Belmont Club —
David Kilcullen writes that Afghanistan is still winnable. But only just. In a George Packer-edited New Yorker email interview Kilcullen summarizes the problem: (hat tip ...
Barely Winnable
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan —
Packer has an e-mail exchange with foreign policy maven David Kilcullen. Here's Kilcullen on the situation in Afghanistan: It’s bad: violence is way up, Taliban influence has spread at the local level, and popular confidence in the government and the international community is waning fast. It’s still winnable, but only just, and to turn this thing around will take an extremely major effort starting with local-level governance, political strategy, giving the Afghan people a well-founded feeling of security, and dealing with the active sanctuary in Pakistan. ...
Kilcullen And A Pony
Newshoggers.com —
... By Cernig
There's very interesting interview today with counterinsurgency guru David Kilcullen in the New Yorker.
My take - he says there's less than a year before Afghanistan is irretreivable, that Pakistan is the true central front and that he can see how to rescue both nations. I think he's being overly optimistic about the timeframe to rescue the Afghanistan misadventure. It has already slipped past, for reasons Kilcullen actually explains in his interview - the recalcitrance and corruption of US-backed governments in Pakistan and ...
Kilcullen re Afghanistan
Jules Crittenden —
... Paints a dire picture, “Winnable, but only just,” but unlike most doom/gloomsayers lays out a practical path to a turnaround in Afghanistan. Advises getting on the stick ASAP. The New Yorker : It’s bad: violence is way up, Taliban influence has spread at the local level, and popular confidence in the government and the international community is waning fast. It’s still winnable, but only just, and to turn this thing around will take an extremely major effort starting with local-level governance, political strategy, giving the Afghan people a well-founded feeling of security, ...
Win-Lose Situation
Jules Crittenden —
... As those seem to be the leading options in Afghanistan. How to win/how to lose roundup kicks off with LTC David Kilcullen, Australia’s wartime gift to the world, painting a dire picture of Afghanistan, “Winnable, but only just.” Unlike most doom/gloomsayers, he lays out a practical path to a turnaround in Afghanistan. Advises getting on the stick ASAP. The New Yorker : It’s bad: violence is way up, Taliban influence has spread at the local level, and popular confidence in the government and the international community is waning fast. It’s still winnable, but only just, and to ...
Jihad Journal
N/A —
Great news: Iraq cabinet signs off on SOFA. Deadline for US out is December 31, 2011.
Not so great news? Afghanistan is going down quickly. And then there is Pakistan . . .
The Blunt Truth About Afghanistan
QandO —
That truth, according to counterinsurgency expert David Kilcullin is, "it’s winnable, but just barely". The four reasons he gives in a New Yorker interview are as follows: Well, we need to be more effective in what we are doing, but we also need to do some different things, as well, with the focus on security and governance. The classical counterinsurgency theorist Bernard Fall wrote, in 1965, that a government which is losing to an insurgency isn’t being out-fought, it’s being out-governed. In our case, we are being both ...
NATO’s Lifeline to Afghanistan Threatened
Weekly Standard Blog —
... There is much talk of a “surge” for Afghanistan to deal with the spiraling violence and the resurgence of the Taliban. Some experts, such as David Kilcullen, say we don’t need a surge in forces, but need to rethink how we are using our forces in Afghanistan. No matter what the answer is, until we secure our supply lines through Pakistan, the U.S. and NATO forces currently there are in danger of being choked off. Richard Fernandez ...
To Talk with the Taliban?
democracyarsenal.org —
... at recent commentary from Kilcullen and Collins and wonders whether Karzai's offer means we'll soon get a chance to test what has so far been a fascinating, but also speculative exercise: Karzai basically dared the Taliban to sit down with him, saying "they must prove themselves," not just boast about their seriousness for peace.
Lots of smart people don't believe Omar would seriously negotiate. Our old friend Dave Kilcullen recently said so to the New Yorker's George Packer. Joe Collins, a former Pentagon official, thinks the whole ...
David Quigg: Barack: Talk To Us Like Grownups About Terrorism and Save Us From Ourselves
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com —
... Sometimes it can be hard to take in the full scope of what Bush's swaggering incompetence has wrought. While al Qaeda might have anticipated baiting us into a draining war in Afghanistan, could the terrorists possibly have dared to dream of the total non sequitur that came next: Bush using 9/11 as a pretext for pushing us into a second reputation-ruining quagmire in Iraq? ...
Predictability and Order in Counterinsurgencies
Newshoggers.com —
... People may hate the rules that the Taliban imposes, but at least their is some predictability as to what the Taliban will and will not do and what actions will prompt reprisals. Corrupt police don't even off that minimal public good. And via the Yorkshire Ranter is this article from the New Yorker concerning a conversation between Packer and Kilkullen: ...
Afghanistan: All About Oil?
Antiwar.com Original —
... to invade, quash the unfriendly/uncooperative elements, and install a puppet government willing to do the bidding of the international oil consortium and facilitate building the pipeline and protecting it from saboteurs and other unpleasant types. To which I can only say, both with regard to the Afghan pipeline and the oil industry in general in Iraq, eight years on: " How's that working out? " David Kilcullen , an Australian counterinsurgency guru who is said to have briefed both Barack Obama and John McCain during the campaign last year and is ...
