A Few Notes From the National Exit Poll
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right — ... lost whites making less than $50,000 a year -- but by only 4 points. The bigger differences were along educational lines; he lost no-college whites by 18 points. 40 percent of the electorate identified itself as Democrat, 32 percent Republican, roughly in line with the pollster consensus. The Obama campaign contacted about 50 percent more voters than the McCain campaign. Obama won union members 61-38. Obama won 83 percent of Clinton voters. See here for more.

The Poll That Counts: Obama 52 McCain 46
Daily Kos — ... Here are a handful of exit poll demographics to look at as well. R2K used an 18% youth turnout, the exact number in the 2008 NEP exit poll. ...

How he did it
Political Animal — ... Democrat to also win a majority since Jimmy Carter with the near-unanimous backing of blacks and the overwhelming support of youth as well as significant inroads with white men and strong support among Hispanics and educated voters. The Illinois senator won 43 percent of white voters, 4 percentage points below Carter's performance in 1976 and equal to what Bill Clinton won in the three-man race of 1996. Republican John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote. Digging through the numbers , we see: * Obama won self-identified independents (52% to 44%), and self-identified ...

I Dissent
Wizbang — ... gains 1 Gallup (traditional): Obama gains 2 while McCain stays even Gallup (expanded): Obama gains 1 while Mccain gains 1 Diageo/Hotline: Obama gains 4 while McCain gains 3 Reuters/C-Span/Zogby: Obama stays even while McCain gains 6 ABC News/Wash Post: Obama loses 2 while McCain gains 3 Note how many of these polls would have to claim McCain made big gains among last-minute voters, for their poll to be correct? Well then, how did last-minute voters actually vote? According to CNN, they were essentially split , with a slight edge going to Obama. So, that means that - as I ...

Exit Polls Show Huge Increase In Incomes Since '04, Will Media Care?
NewsBusters.org - Exposing Liberal Media Bias — For years, and certainly throughout this campaign, the media contention has been that only the rich have done well since Bush was elected, and that his economic policies did nothing for lower and middle income wage earners. Yet, a comparison of the 2008 and 2004 exit polls tells quite a different story about what voters made in those years. In fact, the percentage of poor voters showed a huge decrease since 2004, while the percentage of folks making over $200,000 doubled. Yes, doubled. Here are the particulars: In 2004, 8 ...

President Bush: 'It will be a stirring sight' when Barack Obama and family occupy the White House
Top of the Ticket — ... banner in numbers likely never to be replicated -- exit polls showed he carried 95% of the black male vote and 96% of the black female vote. ...

Exit Poll Media Shocker: Conservatives Still Outnumber Liberals
NewsBusters.org - Exposing Liberal Media Bias — ... it seems a metaphysical certitude media representatives will cast Tuesday's results as indicative of a continued national shift to the left they believe began when the Democrats took over Congress in 2006. However, the exit polls don't reflect such a shift at all. In fact, there has been virtually no change to the percentage of folks claiming to be liberal or conservative in their political ideology since 2004. Here are the relevant numbers (2004 here and 2008 here): 21 percent claimed to be liberal in 2004 versus 22 percent in 2008 ...

Spike Lee: Republican Party Totally White, Like 'Leave it to Beaver'
NewsBusters.org - Exposing Liberal Media Bias — ... "Howdy Doody." That America does not exist anymore. The Republican Party has got to do something because their base is totally white." [...] The America that's come behind Barack, this mosaic, is the America of today - white, black, brown, yellow, various religions, gay, straight - That is the new America. And Giuliani and these other guys are stuck in the 1950s. Hmmm. The Republican Party is all white? Really? Well, let's look at the exit polls, shall we? McCain-Palin received: 31 percent of the Latino vote 35 ...

Two Paths To Reform
Ross Douthat — The nice thing about a resounding defeat is that everyone can look at the exit polls and find confirmation that the GOP needs to do better among their favored constituency. I can read the exits and see a party that lost six points, compared to ...

More On Sarah Palin's Drag On The Ticket
Daily Kos — ... Republicans, nearly half -- 45 percent -- thought their party should work with the new Democratic Party president elect and help him bring about change. Packed up in the poll (.pdf) are some interesting tidbits about what people really think, pundits notwithstanding. Why did people vote for Obama? Answers obtained from non-McCain voters; included are top responses: The economy is important, but so is the war. Note that the exit polls show the war being rejected by the voters: Here are why ...

The coming immigration battleground
Daily Kos — ... Instead, we know what really happened -- the GOP counterattacked their own president and defeated the bill. John McCain was forced to declare, in a primary debate, that he would now vote against his very own bill. Republicans got the blame and Latinos, Asians, and "others" (which include immigrant groups like Arabs) responded by punishing Republicans at the polls this year: ...

The Jewish Vote in 2008 and the Exit Polls
American Thinker — ... , anyone who has a clue about the exit polls and how they are conducted, should be much more cautious than the NJDC about interpreting the results. In 2006, the national exit poll surveyed about 200 Jews out of a national sample of 13,000, barely 1.5% of the voters interviewed. This year, about 2% of the combined 20,000 exit poll interviews conducted on the street or by phone were Jews, or about 400 in total.

When Will We See a Blue Texas? Hispanics Will Decide
MoJo Blog Posts: mojo — ... a presidential battleground," Figueroa said. The reason is demographics. Across the Southwest, Latino voters are increasingly powerful. In Colorado, their share of the vote went from 8% in 2004 to 13% in 2008. Nevada, 10% to 15%. New Mexico, 32% to 41%. Every minute, there are four new Americans, either through birth or immigration. Two of those four are Hispanic. By 2050, Hispanics will represent 29 percent of the American population. In 2008, Latinos voted 67-31 for Barack Obama. Texas is already 35 percent Hispanic. You ...

More On Exit Polls and Realignment
Daily Kos — ... In looking at exit polls, therefore, this result: The 2004 election exit polls showed the self-identified party ID as 37 D, 37 R, 23 I, whereas 2008 has it as 39 D, 32 R and 26 D. Now, since less than the expected number of Republicans showed up, you could say that there's no real realignment so much as dispirited R's staying home for this election only. ...

Don't Overthink It
The American Spectator — ... Trivia time: What was John McCain's best demographic? White voters 65 and older, who went 58 percent for their fellow AARP member. Whatever else he did wrong, he didn't lose the geezer vote. Losing ...

Dick Morris: Palin Saved GOP From Disaster
Daily Kos — ... of white women, McCain won 53%. He also fails to note that while the Bush to McCain drop-off among white men was 1.4 million, it was 1.5 million among white women. Dick also incorrectly states that the drop off in net margin from Bush to McCain among white men was 11 points. It's actually 9 points. ...

The Right's MoveOn
Daily Kos — Ha ha. This is supposed to be the Right's "MoveOn"? Only a group like this one, The National Republican Trust PAC, which sponsored the Rev. Wright ads that delivered all the undecided vote to McCain in the election, has the flexibility and focus to do what the Republican Party should be doing on its own. The Wright ad delivered all the undecided voters to McCain? Really? Well, here's the reality from the exit polls: ...

Thanks, But No Thanks
Daily Kos — According to Gallup, only 45% of Americans want to see Sarah Palin stick around on the national stage. We know voters think Palin's not qualified, even the ones that voted for her. Oh, sure Republicans like her. Last week, 64% of Republicans wanted her to run in 2012, according to Rasmussen. That led Paul Begala to quip, 'yeah, and 100% of Democrats'. So, she can stick around if Republicans want her to. But when she does (and not every Republican is falling over them self in encouragement), the media is going ...

White Vote And The South
Daily Kos — ... While it's arbitrary to pick a number to represent what an 'expected' chunk of voters should look like, the exit polls tell us that nationally there were 74% self-identified white voters, 43% of whom voted for Obama (.74 x .43 = .32). I therefore set a purple line at around that number (30%), below which is a "below average" "white voter for Obama" number. [You can set it at 40 to correspond to the % of white Obama voters with no adjustment, and see the same right lower quadrant. I arbitrarily picked a lower number.] ...

Youth vote slipping away from GOP?
Hot Air » Top Picks — ... support of activist government, greater opposition to the war in Iraq, less social conservatism, and a greater willingness to describe themselves as liberal politically. Obama would have won the election without the wide split in the youth vote, Pew concludes, although the scope of the victory would have been narrower.  John McCain could have won Indiana and North Carolina but still would have lost Ohio and Florida.  The youth vote comprised 18% of the electorate, according to CNN’s exit polling , and were ...

Zogby Engages in Apparent Push Polling for Right-Wing Website
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right — ... voters who "were chosen for their apparent intelligence/verbal abilities and willingness to express their opinions to a large audience". The clip portrays the Obama supporters as giving "incorrect" answers to political questions such as "which candidate said his policies would likely bankrupt the coal industry and make energy rates skyrocket". Of the 12 Obama supporters interviewed for the clip, 7 (58%) are black; nationwide, about 23% of Obama supporters were black according to the national exit poll. ...

Obama can't win Hispanics
Daily Kos — ... Both McAuliffe and Ickes knew full well that polling at the time showed Obama doing just fine with Latinos. And as we know, Obama performed better among Latinos than any other presidential candidate before him -- a 67-31 ass whooping of McCain. Yet there was Ickes, laying the bullshit on thick, claiming that McCain would do well in Hispanic-heavy states. ...

Future Ex-Democrats
The American Spectator — ... Obama gained his margin of victory in large measure by enlisting the support of the disengaged, the disaffected and those too young to know better. Voters under 30 -- who weren't yet in high school when Bill Clinton was elected -- went for Obama by a 2-to-1 margin. Many of these young Obama supporters will be among the first to feel the shock of discovering how wide is the chasm that separates their Hope from any Change that Obama can actually accomplish. ...

Morris is corrupt and yes, stupid too
Daily Kos — ... agreed that Obama would win 52-53 percent of the vote, but the surveys varied in the amount of undecideds they found. On Election Day, virtually every undecided voter went to McCain, and Obama's final vote share was no more and no less than the 52-53 percent the surveys had predicted. This unanimity among undecided voters is attributable to the endgame of groups like GOPtrust.com and NewsMax.com. Wow. That's quite the assertion. So what do the exit polls say? ...

Thanksgiving By The Numbers, 2008 Edition
Daily Kos — ... of votes cast for Barack Obama Less than 8: The number of weeks left in the Bush Presidency 140,000: The number of American troops serving in Iraq who can begin looking towards the day they will return home. $700 billlion: The size of the FDR-style stimulus plan being considered by some Senate Democrats 66%: Percentage of young voters who supported Obama ...

Michael Giltz: Swingers: The New Voting Bloc That Could Change Politics Forever
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com — ... Let's look at the facts. Exit polling asked voters to identify themselves as either liberal or conservative or moderate. 22% called themselves "liberal" and 34% "conservative." But 44% of voters call themselves "moderate." Both parties tried to claim those moderates for themselves and indeed on many issues the moderates fall into the progressive camp. Nonetheless, they prefer to ID themselves as moderate. In truth, there's nothing "liberal" about a concern for gloabl warming, for example; it's just common sense. ...

More Political Expertise In Malkinland
Lawyers, Guns and Money — Former Cap'n Morrissey gives us a rousing chorus of "Kumbayah": Racial divide? Didn’t this election prove that our racial divide had moved to the past? Barack Obama didn’t win from the black vote — he won a majority of white voters as well. While racism will never get completely stamped out, it has thankfully faded out of our public life. Er: Vote By Race White Obama 43% McCain 55% Other 2% And the thing is, even if you for some reason ...

"The Facebook"
Obsidian Wings — ... But in all seriousness, I think the GOP's youth problem is actually a non-white problem. Obama won generally among 18-29 year old voters by 66-32. However, he won white 18-29ers by a more modest +11 margin. Thus, the larger youth gap comes from the fact that McCain (considered a more moderate GOPer) got absolutely shellacked among young non-white voters. Embracing social networking sites isn't going to help much with that particular problem. ...

Resurgent Racism in Russia
American Thinker — ... . And throughout all of this, the world has not heard one single word of protest issue from the mouth of Barack Obama, neither about the racism nor about the repression of civil society that might otherwise combat the racism. Surely Obama Nation must be somewhat confused to learn that the man who received the votes of 95% of the African-American electorate is totally ignoring an avalanche of lynchings in Vladimir Putin's Russia. Since George Bush looked into Putin's eyes, glimpsed his soul and pronounced him "trustworthy," and since Obama promised "change you can believe ...

Abortion and welfare queens
Daily Kos — ... Per 2008 exit polls, Obama won 52-46 among high income voters, those that make over $200,000 or more. Among those that make $100-200,000, the vote total was nearly split, with Obama taking 48 percent of the vote. That was flipped for those that make $75-100,000, with Obama winning that cohort 51-48. ...

Republicans May Be Against ALL Working Families But They hate Immigrant Working Families Even More
DownWithTyranny! — ... • Exit polls from Election Day indicated that President Barack Obama won 67 percent of the Latino vote, and John McCain 32 percent. This compares to estimates of Latino support for George W. Bush in the range of 39 percent or higher in 2004. In 2000, Bush is thought to have received 35 percent of the Latino vote. ...

Democrats Need Democratic Voters More Than Republican Voters
Open Left - Front Page — ... challenger, to their Republican opponent, or to not voting, then that member of Congress would be in danger of losing either re-election or re-nomination. Further, the self-identified Democratic and self-identified liberal vote is variable, even for Democratic candidates. Some Democrats win more Democratic votes than others. For example, take John Kerry vs. Barack Obama: In 2004, 32.93% of the electorate were Kerry voters who self-identified as Democrats In 2008, 34.71% of the electorate were Obama voters who self-identified as Democrats In other ...

The Scope of The Republican Deficit
Open Left - Front Page — ... (PDF), and is applied to current ethnic voting patterns, if the 2008 election had been held in 2020, Obama would have defeated McCain by 9.8%, a 2.5% increase from the 2008 margin of 7.3%. That doesn't even factor in what will inevitably be a large non-Christian and LGBT vote, two groups that vote for Democrats at nearly the same rate as non-whites. The point is that if Republican popularity stagnates among current demographic groups, overall Republican popularity will actually decline. They have to improve just to maintain their current level of unpopularity. ...

New Study May Underestimate Left-Wing Preponderance in Academia:
The Volokh Conspiracy — ... discussing the UCLA study, sociologist Neil Gross is quoted as claiming that liberal dominance in academia merely reflects the leftward movement of generla public opinion in recent years. This is highly unlikely for several reasons. First, the UCLA results are similar to those reached in other surveys going back several decades. Second, general public opinion remains far to the right of that of academics. For example, 2008 election exit poll data shows that 34% of the general public call themselves "conservative," compared to 22% who say they are "liberal" and 44% ...

How Republicans Can Regain Power
Open Left - Front Page — ... Raise the voting age to 35: According to exit polls, Barack Obama and John McCain tied among voters who were 35 and over. So, if they simply raise the voting age, they will immediately become competitive. That way, they won't be foiled by those meddling kids anymore. ...

Not All Change Is Made By Government
Open Left - Front Page — ... people have come out to their friends and family, not because members of Congress, the vast majority of whom have done nothing whatsoever to support LGBT rights. Support for legalizing marijuana is increasing because more people have tried marijuana, not because of pro-marijuana lobbyists on Capital Hill. There are almost no mainstream political figures arguing for progressive change on marijuana policy, and yet it grows nonetheless. Latinos and Asians now compose 11% of the electorate, up from 3% in 1992. This has improved the Democratic margin in ...

Dick Morris, par excellence
Daily Kos — ... of existing data? Virtually all the polls agreed that Obama would win 52-53 percent of the vote, but the surveys varied in the amount of undecideds they found. On Election Day, virtually every undecided voter went to McCain, and Obama's final vote share was no more and no less than the 52-53 percent the surveys had predicted. This unanimity among undecided voters is attributable to the endgame of groups like GOPtrust.com and NewsMax.com. Reality, from the national exit poll: ...

Dick Morris, wanker emeritus
Daily Kos — ... of existing data? Virtually all the polls agreed that Obama would win 52-53 percent of the vote, but the surveys varied in the amount of undecideds they found. On Election Day, virtually every undecided voter went to McCain, and Obama's final vote share was no more and no less than the 52-53 percent the surveys had predicted. This unanimity among undecided voters is attributable to the endgame of groups like GOPtrust.com and NewsMax.com. Reality, from the national exit poll: ...

On the wrong side of America on same-sex partnerships
Daily Kos — ... Republicans are an old party, and their retrograde bigoted positions on equality are repulsive to younger voters. Obama won the youth vote 66-32, and nothing the Republicans have done since then have made them more palatable to those voters. In fact, by doubling down on hatred, Republicans are merely cementing the millennial generation into the (D) column for years to come. ...

The Future of the Electorate: Age and Party ID
Open Left - Front Page — ... Some astute political junkies might wonder why the Democratic identification margin is smallest among Americans aged 38-46, even though President Obama performed noticeably better among voters between the ages of 30-39 (+10%) and 40-49 (tied) than he did among voters over the age of 65 (-8%). The reason for this is that many older conservatives, especially in the south, still self-identify as Democrats even though they have been voting for Republicans in presidential elections since as early as 1972. Major pro-Republican shifts among this demographic also occurred in the ...

OPEN LEFT EXCLUSIVE: PEOPLE OF DIFFERENT GENDERS AND ETHNICITIES VOTE DIFFERENTLY!!!!!
Open Left - Front Page — ... or something. Now, newly unearthed data shockingly suggests that this offesnive and outlandish claim might actually have some validity. The first tip came when Chris Bowers, Open Left's Director of Perpetually Gazing at Exit Polls, discovered the following chart buried at the top of the first page of the rarely viewed 2008 national exit poll. It shows that people with different genders and ethnicities had a tendency to vote--brace yourself--differently from each other: Holy demographic revelation Batman--people with different genders and races saw the ...

The "Culture Wars" Will Always Be With Us
Open Left - Front Page — ... were almost entirely based on factors like gender and ethnicity. In the general election, according to exit polls, ethnicity played a significantly greater role in determining how people voted than did income. Future projections indicate that these cultural partisan tendencies ...

America changes, GOP retrenches
Daily Kos — ... Republicans have already lost this generation of youngsters. They've long lost African Americans. Now, they're in the process of losing Latinos with their opposition to comprehensive immigration reform and Judge Sotomayor. And even Asians -- projected to be over 9 percent of the population by 2050 -- gave Obama a 62-35 margin in 2008. Without winning back some of those non-white voters, Republicans simply can't win. The numbers aren't there. ...

Would Mike Dukakis Have Won the 2008 Election?
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right — ... From our analysis of the Current Population Survey post-election supplement, here are our estimates for voter turnout in 2008: 76.4% white, 11.9% black, 7.4% hispanic, 4.3% other, with the categories defined as mutually exclusive (for example, if you're white and hispanic, you count as "hispanic"). The exit polls say 74% white, 13% black, 9% hispanic, and 5% other (not adding to 100% because of rounding error), but I think CPS is more trustworthy. ...

Would Mike Dukakis Have Won the 2008 Election?
The Monkey Cage — ... From our analysis of the Current Population Survey post-election supplement, here are our estimates for voter turnout in 2008: 76.4% white, 11.9% black, 7.4% hispanic, 4.3% other, with the categories defined as mutually exclusive (for example, if you’re white and hispanic, you count as “hispanic”). The exit polls say 74% white, 13% black, 9% hispanic, and 5% other (not adding to 100% because of rounding error), but I think CPS is more trustworthy. ...

The GOP's "empathy" problem with millennials
Daily Kos — ... While dates can vary depending on the source, the millennial generation is roughly everyone born between 1978-1993 (or currently 31 years old at the top end). And there's no doubt that this generation is overwhelmingly Democratic. The 18-29 cohort went for Obama by a dominant 66-32 percentage in 2008. And Gallup polling (which calls the Millennials "Generation Y" and puts them in the 18-29 category) indicates that these younger voters are dramatically more Democratic than older generations: ...

Whiter shade of fail
Balloon Juice — Reading an annoyingly titled but interesting piece about the next election cycle, I came across this interesting tidbit, which I hadn’t seen before: As The New York Times’ John Harwood recently noted, McCain won the same percentage of the white vote that Ronald Reagan did in 1980 — and lost. Reagan and McCain each won 55% of the white vote. Here’s something else interesting: Bush won 58% of the white vote in 2004. If McCain had won 58%, he still would have lost badly. If ...

The Beltway Still Does Not Understand The Emerged Democratic Majority
TalkLeft — ... (Emphasis supplied.) Uh, what? That's the strategy? Continue alienating non-whites and women? Hell of a strategy. For those who missed the 2008 election, here were the demographic breakdowns: ...

How Does a Leftist Govern America?
Pajamas Media — ... a month ago. … Seventeen percent (17%) of voters say the president is moderate, while only six percent (6%) believe he is conservative. This was not the image that enabled Obama to win the presidency. Last year he beat John McCain by somehow convincing the public that he was the moderate, the fiscally prudent one, and the voice of “pragmatism” — that catchphrase meant to assure voters the candidate is not an ideologically crazed extremist. It was a good thing Obama ran that way. Exit polling showed that the electorate self-identified as 44% moderate, 34% conservative, and ...

Republican White Voter Strategy?
Open Left - Front Page — ... Republicans have suffered such severe electoral losses in recent years, and become so dominated by right-wing leaders and institutions, there are few moderating voices left to suggest a less hard-line message. Further, while the electorate has become significantly more ethnically diverse (26% non-white in 2008, compared to 15% non-white ...

They already have their care
Political Animal — ... resembling government-run health care. That these voters are listening to the same GOP leaders who support cutting Medicare and privatizing Social Security is a point that seems to have been lost in the shuffle. But stepping back, it's also worth noting that Republicans are targeting older voters in part because other age groups are moving away from the GOP. On Election Day, Obama defeated McCain by huge margins among voters under the age of 40; tied McCain with voters 40 to 64; and lost badly among those 65 and older. Maybe the GOP is looking for a sympathetic constituency, ...

Those Old Folks
Newshoggers.com — ... But stepping back, it's also worth noting that Republicans are targeting older voters in part because other age groups are moving away from the GOP. On Election Day, Obama defeated McCain by huge margins among voters under the age of 40; tied McCain with voters 40 to 64; and lost badly among those 65 and older. ...

Tea bags and hard hats
Balloon Juice — ... For a lot of older political reporters, it will always be 1970, the hard-hat riots will always be raging, and Nixonian class and race resentment will always benefit Republicans. But it’s not 1970 anymore. McCain lost in 2008 primarily because of weakness with non-white voters, younger voters, voters with post-graduate degrees, and voters whose incomes are in the top 5%. Obama won two-thirds of the Latino vote, two-thirds of the 18-29 vote (a staggering figure—Obama’s 66% among 18-29 is the highest ever recorded by a president in a single age group ...

Small Government Principles Key To Republican Revival
GayPatriot — ... Americans have publicly expressed their opposition to increased government spending, a concern the Democratic presidential candidate tapped into in his successful bid for the White House.  With a Republican President and Congress not holding the line on spending, many of those conservatives become disenchanted with the GOP and either didn’t bother to vote or registered their disapproval by pulling the lever for a Third Party candidate or even the Democrat.  (In 2008, Obama got 20% of the conservative vote, up from John Kerry’ ...

White Approval of Obama
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right — ... There are (at least) two things to keep in mind when considering the potential political and (in 2010, 2012) electoral impact of Obama's white support. First, remember that Obama only received 43 percent of the white vote last November, according to exit polls. ...

Age And The Status Quo
Open Left - Front Page — ... , 32% of the electorate was under the age of 30, compared to only 18% in 2008. If the electorate last year had been as young as it was in 1976, Obama would have won by a much larger margin--55.5%--43.7%--than even the 7.27% he  actually won by. Democrats in Congress would have won at least a dozen more seats. Approval ratings for the Obama administration and Democratic policies would be higher, too. Simply put, the country would be more open to progressive policy changes. ...

RNC Celebrates Republican Hispanic Heritage Month
Daily Kos — ... you may wonder what happened to a recent, rather significant first -- that being the first Hispanic Justice on the Supreme Court of the United States, Sonia Sotomayor. Apparently she didn't make the cut. Nor did any other non-Republicans. No wonder Hispanics are leaving the Republican Party in droves. ...

Independents Prefer GOP For Midterms
The Atlantic Politics Channel — ... . Independents helped President Obama take the White House last year, voting for him 52-44 over John McCain according to CNN's exit polls, and Gallup gave Democrats the edge with independents in generic congressional balloting 46-39 just before they went to the ballots in '08. Now, when it comes to 2010 congressional races, Gallup says Republicans hold a 45-36 edge--quite a swing from last year: ...

Explaining the Democratic victories
Betsy's Page — ... that labor unions poured into Democratic campaigns than to any change in fundamental attitudes toward the balance between markets and government. Narrative B does a better job than Narrative A of explaining the unpopularity of the Democrats' big-government programs and the unwillingness of many Democratic officeholders, especially those facing voters in 2010, to support them. It does a better job of explaining the shift in the balance of enthusiasm from 2008 to 2009. Remember that exit polls showed that more people still describe themselves as moderate than either liberal or ...

Liberals Largest Ideological Swing Vote In 2008
Open Left - Front Page — It is a truism in politics that there are more swing voters in the middle of the electorate--self-identified moderates and Independents--than at the edges. However, exit polls indicates that is not necessarily the case. In fact, from 2004 to 2008, Democrats gained more votes from self-identified liberals than from any other ideological group. In 2004, according to exit polls, 17.85% of the electorate were self-identified liberals who voted for Kerry In 2008, according to exit polls, 19.58% of the electorate were self-identified liberals who voted for ...

Of course there is a national element in tomorrow's elections
Open Left - Front Page — ... electoral gains Democrats made from 2005-2008. On Wednesday, Democrats will be tempted to brush off these results as lacking in national meaning.  Certainly, there are undoubtedly local factors at play in all of these elections, and candidate / campaign quality always makes a real difference in the outcome of any election. However, as a group we should not delude ourselves.  Compared to one year ago, Republicans have made measurable gains. Party ID November 2008 exit polls: Democrats +7% November 2009 trendline: Democrats +5.2 ...

A graphic showing just how little has changed over the past year
Open Left - Front Page — ... .  Similarly, the Democratic edge is partisan self-identification stood at 10% (39%-29%) on Election Day, 2008 (according to exit polls), but now stands at 6% ( ...

Poll: Obama's Fall In Popularity Comes Mainly From Whites
TPM Election Central — ... It shouldn't be surprising that whites are a weaker demographic for Obama, as they tend to be tough ground for national Democrats in general. Obama won only 43% of this group in 2008, even as he won 53% of the total popular vote. This was actually pretty good for a Democrat, and an improvement from ...