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News outlets sweat over exit poll accuracy
Several new variables, ranging from Obama supporters' zeal to race to early voting, are causing concern among the media and the survey conductors themselves.
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McCain ad: “Sweat Equity”
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Too Much Early Voting An Exit Poll Problem?
marcambinder.theatlantic.com — A reader wonders whether a significant early vote skew to Barack Obama will bollux up exit pollsters... on election night. In other words -- if exit polls show a narrow McCain lead, how will analysts be able to factor in Obama's lead in the early vote? Let's take a state like Florida. The exit poll ... (more) Too Much Early Voting An Exit Poll Problem?
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Hey, you know what often overstates Obama's support?
Ace of Spades HQ — Hey, you know what often overstates Obama's support? Polls. The Obama Glee Club at the Politico took a 5 minute break from singing his praises today, to report on a curious fact: exit polls tend to, get this, OVERSTATE Obama's support. Really, Politico? You don't say. It's not like Conservatives and PUMA's have been making this claim since Super Tuesday. Oh wait. Yeah, we have. Anyway, I read the Politico so you don't have to (you lucky, lucky bastards) and here is an interesting nugget buried in their article: In theory, exit polls should match election results. But for all ...

Ruh-Roh... Polls Overestimated Obama's Strength By Average of 7% This Year
Gateway Pundit — Here's something the Obama Campaign is not talking about... Polls this year have overestimated Obama's strength in 18 of 20 states by an average of 7%. *Gulp* Ace of Spades and The Politico reported: In theory, exit polls should match election results. But for all the care that goes into conducting accurate exit polls, errant results aren’t completely uncommon. Respected polling analyst Mark Blumenthal found that during the Democratic primaries this year, preliminary exit polls overestimated Obama's strength in ...

Shocker: Polling Tends To Overstate Support For Obama, Democrats
Say Anything — ... The Politico notes that polls tend overstate support for Obama and Democrats in general. ...

Shocker: New Outlets Worried Over Exit Polls
JammieWearingFool — They should be worried. They grossly overstated support for John Kerry in 2004 and based on the sycophantic, almost slavish coverage of Obama this year, they have a right to be concerned. After all but declaring the election over, how will they explain it if their guys loses? Well, they'll probably just blame it on racism instead of accepting any measure of accountability . Media outlets are preparing for the possibility that their Election Day surveys could be skewed because of overstated support for Barack Obama, largely because of the enthusiasm of his supporters. While ...

REMEMBER-- Polls Overestimated Obama's Strength By Average of 7 Percentage Points This Year
Gateway Pundit — As Election Day Draws Near, Do Not Forget--- Polls Overestimated Obama's Strength By Average of 7 Percentage Points This Year In 18 of 20 states this year polls overestimated Obama's strength by an average of 7%. Ace of Spades and The Politico reported this previously In theory, exit polls should match election results. But for all the care that goes into conducting accurate exit polls, errant results aren’t completely uncommon. Respected polling analyst Mark Blumenthal found that during ...

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corner.nationalreview.com 11/4/2008 — Jonah, there's no such thing as exit poll data "for real". As I said right here at 5.22pm Eastern time on Election Day 2004, "the key word in the phrase 'exit poll' is 'poll': that's all it is." So before we all get as high on the exit poll crack as ...
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