Follow BeltwayBlips on Twitter
Quick Notes
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right —
Running the numbers. Looks like they'll contain good news for Senator Obama. Also, I'll be a guest on Charlie Rose tonight. Here is the polling dump while I get the write-up ready... EDIT: Aww, crap. Got the numbers reversed on a Kentucky poll. Re-running numbers. ...In the meantime, check out Swing State Project's terrific map of poll closing times.
links for 2008-11-01
Oliver Willis —
... Nov. 4, 2008 Poll Closing Times & Key Races
For Obama Volunteer, A Solitary Sense of History
The chuckleheads at Red State are trying to make this story a negative. Of course, nobody's busting their butt like this for ...
Obama Up 10% With 30% Reporting
Open Left - Front Page —
... with less than 77 hours before the polls close in all swing states. (Iowa is the last "swing state" to close, if you can call Iowa a swing state, anyway. Part of Montana closes at 11:00 p.m. eastern). So, McCain has to gain a full 1% on Obama every thirteen hours between now and then in order to win. That means that McCain has to flip about 100,000 voters every hour, or three every second, in order to tie Obama. Best of all, he can only target 70% of the electorate for these votes, because 30% is already spoken for. ...
Election Day Predictions...
LiberalOasis : The Blog —
... GA, KY and MS seem a bridge too far to me. But as anyone will tell you, if Dems pick up any of these, you know the wave of change is big. (KY and GA polls close on the early side, but GA's race is likely to go a Dec. runoff with no one getting 50%.) ...
Guide For Watching Election Night Results
The Huffington Post | Full News Feed —
For those obsessed with the results on Tuesday night, here is a November 4 guide to watching television and searching exit poll data on the web.
There are three basic questions (with hundreds more to follow in the weeks ahead): 1) When can you feel confident about the outcome of the presidential contest?; 2) How well are Democrats progressing toward their goal of 60 seats in the Senate?; and 3) Will 2008 be another Democratic blowout, signaling the possibility that the party could establish a majority coalition in future elections?
The basic rule of thumb is to follow the closing times of the polls in each state. Once ...
Guide For Watching Election Night Results
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com —
For those obsessed with the results on Tuesday night, here is a November 4 guide to watching television and searching exit poll data on the web.
There are three basic questions (with hundreds more to follow in the weeks ahead): 1) When can you feel confident about the outcome of the presidential contest?; 2) How well are Democrats progressing toward their goal of 60 seats in the Senate?; and 3) Will 2008 be another Democratic blowout, signaling the possibility that the party could establish a majority coalition in future elections?
The basic rule of thumb is to follow the closing times of the polls in each state. Once ...
Poll Closing Times & Key Races Map
The Latest on Air America —
Originally Posted on SwingStateProject.com Nov. 4, 2008 Poll Closing Times & Key Races [image] Please click the image for a larger version. Below is a list of key House, Senate, gubernatorial and state legislative races, arranged by poll closing times. (Asterisks indicate open seats.) A list of key ballot measures can be found here . States with multiple closing times are listed in order of their earliest closing, with the exception of Oregon (where the bulk of the state is in the Pacific time zone). Once again, all times are Eastern , not local. Time State Republican-Held Democratic-Held 6:00 PM 7:00 PM ...
Quick Hits: One Day Left Edition
BlueOregon —
... Over at the Swing State Project, they've got an excellent map of election-night poll closing times (click to zoom) along with a spreadsheet of races to watch. ...
Daily Kos Election Day Resources
Daily Kos —
We've got lots of cool stuff to help you get through Tuesday night. Our Electoral Scoreboard will stream in live, up-to-the-minute results of the presidential race, as well as House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. You can also go back to previous cycles to see how our candidates are performing compared to previous elections. This will be the place to be. Brownsox has written a comprehensive Election Guide so you can follow the key races around the country by closing time. Included in that Election Guide are a PDF downloaded version of the ...
Arianna Huffington: I'm Ready to Declare a Winner in the 2008 Race
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com —
... Their election homepage is here, use it to find your polling place, get directions, and read what each candidate says about the issues.
Congressional Quarterly also has a great page of historical maps here.
The American Prospect's election night guide can be found here.
DailyKos and TPM both have fun and very functional interactive maps.
For poll closing times, here are pages by CNN, 270 To Win, Swing State Project, and The Green Papers.
Want to do your own interactive electoral ...
Election Night Guide: Hour-by-Hour
The Moderate Voice —
With Obama having an incredibly strong polling day and FiveThirtyEight now projecting his win percentage at 98.1% today, perhaps we shouldn’t be asking if Obama will win tomorrow, but when. Nate Silver, Doug Mataconis at Donklephant, and the Swing State Project have all provided useful guides for hour-by-hour poll closings.
Here’s what you should watch for (all times Eastern, and although there are some very interesting Senate races, I only focused on the McCain-Obama match up):
6:00 PM: Kentucky ...
Late Afternoon/Early Evening Open Thread
Daily Kos —
What you missed on Sunday Kos .... Devilstower explored the complications and consequences of letting corporate giants who are "too big to fail" grow even bigger through mergers and takeovers in First National Brontosaurus. brownsox finished off his horse-race-following season--what he called a "crazy, wonderful cycle for Democrats, at all levels"--in House, Senate, Governor Final Race Ratings. Plutonium Page broke stereotypes and discussed misperceptions about gun ownership in The Left to Bear Arms--a post that drew close to 900 comments and had an amazing amount of ...
The Big Day is Finally Here
Newshoggers.com —
... By BJ
Via the Swing State Project, a handy guide for when the results will start to come in. Well, except for the first two towns to vote, which both went for Obama.
Speaking of maps, the one over at 270towin should prove a useful toy for the evening. Regardless whether or not the networks decide to call things early on or not, such a map will make it pretty obvious which way the night is going to go.
Now we just get to sit around and worry for a few hours. ...
Handy Map: Poll Closing Times Nationwide
MoJo Blog Posts: mojo —
From the pros over at Swing State Project. Click the map to head over to their site, where they have key Senate and House races broken down by poll closing time.
Also, for a photo diary of voting lines across the country, check out Open Left.
Waiting For Tonight
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan —
Poll closing times from around the US. More info here.
And Though It Seems Heaven Sent…
pandagon.net - we are the public option —
by Jesse Taylor
Poll closing times.
Poll closing times
Dean's World —
Handy map here
Polls are currently closed in parts of Indiana and Kentucky (which span two time zones, and where close polls at 6 PM local time). Results will start being reported at 7 PM Eastern when polls are closed statewide in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, New Hampshire, and Vermont. ...
