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Democrats vs. Republicans: 50-50
The Swamp —
... The landscape for congressional elections is looking a lot more volatile than it did at the start of Obama's term, when his own approval rating stood at 69 percent and Congress had taken swift action on the first economic stimulus.. ...
Soft Middle: On Afghanistan, health care, Obama appeals to center that may not be there
The Note —
... But what of those indies? Gallup has Democrats up just 46-44 in a generic ballot question -- and you know why: "The Republican Party's relatively strong position on the generic ballot in the latest poll, conducted Oct. 1-4, stems from the support of political independents, who now favor Republican over Democratic candidates by 45% to 36%. In July, independents were evenly divided in their party voting preferences, whereas last fall they showed a clear preference for the Democrats." ...
Democrats vs. Republicans: 50-50
The Swamp —
... The landscape for congressional elections is looking a lot more volatile than it did at the start of Obama's term, when his own approval rating stood at 69 percent and Congress had taken swift action on the first economic stimulus.. ...
Open Thread
NewsBusters.org - Exposing Liberal Media Bias —
... For general discussion and debate. Possible talking point: Gallup finds GOP behind only two points in a generic ballot poll. ...
2009/2010
First Read —
The Wall Street Journal looks at the correlation between the unemployment rate and Election Day. "Republicans are already harnessing voter unease over deficit spending and proposed changes to the health-care system. But they see the economy as the Democrats' main vulnerability… Officials at the National Republican Campaign Committee said they planned to use the weak employment numbers to hammer at 54 Democratic House members that Republicans deem the most vulnerable in 2010. Republicans are particularly targeting the 49 House lawmakers in districts carried last November by Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee."
A new Gallup poll has ...
Republicans Close Gap on Generic Ballot
Taegan Goddard's Political Wire —
A new Gallup Poll finds Democrats are now barely ahead of the Republicans, 46% to 44%, in registered voters' party preferences for next year's midterm elections. That differs from the typical double-digit Democratic leads of the past two years. More independents now favor Republican than Democratic candidates. In addition, just 21% of Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job while 72% disapprove. Bottom line: "The challenge for congressional Democrats is underscored by today's low
approval of Congress. While it is far too early to say whether these
indicators spell real trouble for the Democrats in 2010, they could
provide some ...
The DOOM that came from Gallup.
RedState —
Given in a polite, understated, terribly-sorry-to-bother-you sort of way:
Parties Nearly Tied for Congress in 2010
PRINCETON, NJ — Roughly a year before the 2010 midterm elections, Gallup finds the Republican and Democratic Parties nearly tied in the congressional ballot preferences of registered voters. Forty-six percent of registered voters say they would vote for the Democrat and 44% say the Republican when asked which party’s candidate they would support for Congress, if the election were held today.
The interesting part of this article is in what it lacks: to wit, any good news for Democrats. ...
2010: It's Close
The Atlantic Politics Channel —
Democrats and Republicans are neck-and-neck in generic balloting for the 2010 elections, a sign that all the prognostications of a tough midterm battle are correct. Democrats retain a 46 percent to 44 percent lead over the GOP among registered voters, when asked which party they'll vote for in the 2010 congressional races, according to a new survey from Gallup. That's closer than it's been, for the most part, since Democrats took control of Congress in 2006, except for moments of party parity in late 2006 and just after the Republican National Convention in September '08. But Gallup actually predicts that, if the elections were held today, Republicans ...
Independents Prefer GOP For Midterms
The Atlantic Politics Channel —
Another nugget of polling data from Gallup's latest survey: independent voters now prefer the GOP to the Democratic Party, according to the new numbers. Independents helped President Obama take the White House last year, voting for him 52-44 over John McCain according to CNN's exit polls, and Gallup gave Democrats the edge with independents in generic congressional balloting 46-39 just before they went to the ballots in '08. Now, when it comes to 2010 congressional races, Gallup says Republicans hold a 45-36 edge--quite a swing from last year: ...
Time for a wake-up call, not for panic
Political Animal —
TIME FOR A WAKE-UP CALL, NOT FOR PANIC.... A new Gallup poll shows Democrats losing their edge on the generic-ballot question. Asked which party's congressional candidate they'd support if the election were held today, 46% preferred the Democratic candidate, while 44% sided with Republicans. The two-point gap is down from six points in July and 15 points in January. This is getting quite a bit of attention today, and for good reason. Dems are still in the lead, but their once-strong margin has all but disappeared. Republican support hasn't grown much, but Democratic support has slipped badly. Particularly striking was the fact that self-described ...
DCCC Chairman: House Health Care Bill Won’t Follow Senate in Taxing ‘Cadillac’ Plans
The Note —
ABC News’ Rick Klein reports: With the Senate eyeing a new tax on high-end insurance plans to pay for health care reform, a large group of House Democrats is pushing back, as labor unions lead the charge in insisting that their members not bear the brunt of reform efforts.
On ABCNews.com’s “Top Line” today, Rep. Chris Van ...
Remainders: WWE
Ben Smith's Blog —
Dems keep slipping in the generic midterm ballot.
Beinart says American failures in Afghanistan are worse than those in Vietnam.
Alex Jones is on the march.
There's hope for the GOP out west.
Dickerson explains how a certain bill becomes a law.
Wehner defends McChrystal, and public dissent.
There won't be a separate Christian edition of Palin's memoir, despite rumors.
Paterson discusses his blindness.
Andrew Sullivan recalls 1994, with regrets..
Linda McMahon makes Goldfarb very happy.
The DNC goes all Hollywood.
Oren ...
GOP on Pelosi: ‘Put Her in Her Place’
Taylor Marsh —
The state of ...
Republicans Closing the Gap
Utah Policy - Politics, Communication & Government Relations —
Even though we're still more than a year away from the 2010 midterm elections, but the prospects for Republicans in Congress are looking up. A new Gallup Poll finds that Republicans and Democrats are nearly tied in a generic ballot survey of registered voters. The Democratic Party held a slightly wider, six percentage-point lead on this important indicator of party strength in July, 50% to 44%. However, both 2009 results show a more competitive political environment than Gallup has generally seen since before the Democrats regained control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2006 midterm elections. Closer to elections, Gallup bases its results on "likely ...
GOP talking big game, numbers don't follow
Daily Kos —
Democrats always act weak and afraid, even when they sit in dominant position. Republicans, are the opposite -- always talking like they own the world, even if the world flips them the bird in response. Some House Republicans are boasting about their chances of regaining control of the House in 2010 and relegating Democrats led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi to minority status for the second half of President Obama’s term. "I have no doubt that we will," said Representative Tom Price, the Georgia Republican who leads the conservative Republican Study Committee. "The American people want checks and balances, and the way to do that is to ...
McConnell rejects poll showing distrust of GOP
News —
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) dismissed on Sunday a recent poll claiming that a large majority of Americans distrust Republicans, saying that more Americans would vote for the GOP in next year's midterm elections. ABC's George Stephanopoulos asked McConnell about the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll that found only 20 percent of Americans identify themselves as Republicans, the fewest in 26 years. It also found that just 19 percent trust congressional Republicans to make the right decisions for the country's future. {mosads}Instead, McConnell pointed to a Gallup poll that this month showed Democrats and Republicans ...
Andrew Sullivan Needs To Learn To Read, And Maybe Understand Statistics
Below The Beltway —
Andrew Sullivan looks at this collection of polls from RealClearPolitics:
And says this:
Just looking at this raft of polling data, it’s perfectly clear that Rasmussen is polling a different country than other polling outfits.
Umm, Andrew, perhaps not a different country, but maybe a different population:
The ABC News/WaPo results are based on a random sample of adults, the CBS News and Gallup results are based on a random sample of ...
