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Ben Smith's Blog: Cell phone voters
Sister Toldjah: Polling and cell phones
techPresident: Daily Digest: Does a Bill That Fails on the Web Make a Sound?
The Atlantic Politics Channel: A Kuhnian Revolution About To Take Place In Polling?
Taegan Goddard's Political Wire: Excluding Cell Phones May Skew Poll Results
Cell phone voters
Ben Smith's Blog —
Political reporters like me tend to be very skeptical of claims that there are thousands of cellphone-only voters missing from polls, a cadre that would presumably skew toward Obama. We're skeptical because we heard about this ad nauseum last cycle, but the polls showing Bush ahead turned out to be right.
Four years on, though, many more people have ditched their landlines. And Mark Blumenthal summarizes a new Pew study this way: "Missing cell-phone onlys matter."
Polling and cell phones
Sister Toldjah —
... the Pew Research Center published the results of three comprehensive surveys they did after the primaries were over that included data from both land line and cell phone lines. In previous elections, cell phones weren’t widely polled, but this year more pollsters are doing that - with some starting at the beginning of the year, while others started doing so later on. Pew’s done their own major surveys on cell phone versus landline polling and the demographics of both, and here were the results: ...
Daily Digest: Does a Bill That Fails on the Web Make a Sound?
techPresident —
... Cell-Only Young Voters Lean Obama: You don't have to follow polls that closely to know of the fears that cell phones threaten to kick the leg out of modern surveying. A new Pew Research Center study finds that while among all voters, modeling off of land lines to capture the leanings of the mobile-only crowd is a satisfactory approximate. But, there's a "but" -- when it comes to those under 30, the gap between land and air widens considerable. Pew found that while 39% of sub-30 registered voters reached by land line are backing McCain, just ...
A Kuhnian Revolution About To Take Place In Polling?
The Atlantic Politics Channel —
Those missing cell phone-only respondents....make a difference. When pollsters first noticed that large numbers of young Americans were ditching their landlines in favor of cells, they took comfort in surveys showing that there was little to no difference in how the two groups responded to surveys. Now, a statistically significant difference has been detected, courtesy of the Pew Research Center. As Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal ...
Excluding Cell Phones May Skew Poll Results
Taegan Goddard's Political Wire —
After including cell phone-only households in three recent polls, Pew Research notes "a virtually identical pattern is seen across all three surveys: In each case, including cell phone interviews resulted in slightly more support for Obama and slightly less for McCain, a consistent difference of two-to-three points in the margin." ...
Fox News poll: Obama 45, McCain 39, nine-point swing since convention
Hot Air » Top Picks —
... , but rather than bludgeon you with horrible news I’ll point you to one that’s merely provocative yet discouraging . Behold: [image] Yes, yes, I know, the left perennially (quadrennially?) whines that pollsters underestimate Democratic support because they’re stuck sampling landline voters, not the cell-phone-only generation that tends to skew left. Historically the complaint’s been overblown because pollsters compensate for the missing cell-phone sample by adding more weight to young voters. The problem with doing that this year, apparently, is that young cell-phoners lean ...
Last Words: Debating the Debate
The Caucus —
... in the Jewish community in Florida, where Hillary did very well and where I did very well. And I just think respecting the holidays is a good thing to do.” The former president also defended the depth of his support for Senator Obama and asserted that he and his wife, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, were not “party-wreckers” despite what he called the “unusual circumstances” of the hotly contested primary contest. Can You Hear Them Now? Everybody’s been talking today about the new Pew Research study that discusses the implications of wider cell phone use and the inclusion ...
9/25 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama 49, McCain 43
Daily Kos —
... it's the cancellation of the debates, running against Letterman or Palin's "I'll get back to you on that" on simple questions to Katie Couric, the McCain campaign did not have a good day (even Peggy Noonan disapproves of the gimmicky nature of McCain's actions, and McCain booster Joe Scarborough is depressed). For those of you following the landline-cell phone discussion, there's new data from Pew yesterday (h/t Mark Blumenthal at pollster.com.) Cell Phones and the 2008 Vote: An Update The Pew Research Center for the People & the ...
Can You Hear Them Now?
The Opinionator —
“Because of the strong support Obama is attracting among younger voters, and as the number of Americans who are reachable only by cell phones rises, interest continues to grow in the question of whether public opinion polls that do not include cell phones are accurately measuring the relative levels of support for the two candidates,” report those surveyors of the American soul at The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. To remedy that, the center looks at “ three major election surveys with both cell phone and landline samples since the conclusion of the primaries .” ...
The Cell Phone Effect
BlueOregon —
... When pollsters conduct telephone surveys and call only households with a landline, do they fail to capture an important part of the electorate who use only cell phones? For the past half-decade or so, pollsters believed the answer to this question was no. However, Pew just released an extremely interesting report (okay, interesting to poll geeks) suggesting that there is a marginal bias in landline surveys. These surveys underestimate support to Obama--and quite likely, to Jeff Merkley as well. ...
Selzer & Co: Correction on Cellphones
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right —
... Yesterday, the Pew Research Center issued a detailed study on cellphones and the 2008 election. They found that Barack Obama performed a net 2-3 points better between three of their recent polls when a cellphone sample was included. They also found that cellphone-only voters were significantly more likely to support Obama than non-cellphone voters of the same age. ...
Where cell-phone onlys matter
Ben Smith's Blog —
... , working off admittedly shaky data, takes a crack at finding the concentrations of cell-phone only users whom pollsters might be undercounting, as a Pew study earlier this week indicated. ...
Pew: Polls that omit cellphones underestimate Obama vote 2-3%
Corrente —
I’m no polling expert, but here’s the Pew study.
Jonathan Spalter: How Mobile Technologies are Changing Elections
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com —
... Given recent nonpartisan analyses of the demographics of "cell phone only" users, O'Shea's confidence seems justified. Last month, the Pew Research Center reported of 62 percent of "cell phone only" people under 30 were Democrats while 28 percent were Republicans. By contrast, among "under 30" landline users, the gap was narrower: 54 percent Democrats, 36 percent GOP. ...
Daily Digest: The Mobile Voter Double Whammy?
techPresident —
... from Obama's polling numbers; a Pew study confirms that, and adds that missed mobile phone users tend to lean even farther to Obama than their peers. So, are we underestimating easy-to-reach pro-Obama voters who will be cheap to turn out on Election Day? If so, it just might turn close contests into wins, and expected wins into even bigger ones. ...
Conservative and Liberal Pollsters: Obama by a Landslide
Brilliant at Breakfast —
... For instance: A month ago, the Pew Research Center did a limited poll in which landline users and/or cell phone users were asked whom they supported. The results were startling. ...
