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Projection Suggests Franken Will Win
Taegan Goddard's Political Wire —
Nate Silver looks at the numbers of challenged ballots in Minnesota's U.S. Senate recount and finds "the fewer the number of challenged ballots, the better Al Franken is
doing, and the higher the number of challenged ballots, the worse he is
doing; the relationship is in fact quite strong." ...
Nate Silver Predicts Franken to Win over Coleman in MN
Democratic Underground Latest Breaking News —
... net of 31 votes on Coleman, and in precincts where exactly 2 challenges have been issued, Franken has gained a net of 32 votes on Coleman. By contrast, in precincts where 5 or more ballots have been challenged between the two campaigns, Coleman has gained a net of 57 votes on Franken. In other words, the fewer the number of challenged ballots, the better Franken is doing, and the higher the number of challenged ballots, the worse he is doing; the relationship is in fact quite strong. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/projection-frank... Read more: ...
Franken Will Win By 27 Votes
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan —
Nate Silver crunches the regression analysis. But with numbers like these, it's Florida 2000 all over again.
Franken!
Talking Points Memo —
... I'd been growing a little pessimistic. But Nate runs the numbers and says Franken actually appears to be a very slight favorite to pull it out. ...
Minnesota According to Nate
The Latest on Air America —
Everyone's favorite statistician Nate Silver has crunched the numbers on the recount in Minnesota and after a lengthy consideration of the correlations between challenged ballots and proffered benefits to Al Franken, he triumphantly predicts that our guy will win it by 27 votes.
Read the nitty-gritty on fivethirtyeight.com
Minnesota Senate Recount -- update 2
The Reaction —
... from each side is about even, Nate Silver proposes that "[v]ery probably, a majority of the challenges are coming from Franken's pile. This is somewhat irrespective of which campaign actually instigates the challenge, since... a potential Franken undervote could be the subject of a challenge from either campaign depending on the initial ruling of the local elections judge." ...
Minnesota: Recount Favoring Franken?
Politics Daily —
... The recount in the Senate race between Norm Coleman and challenger Al Franken continues this week amid continuing controversy. Around 2,000 ballots have been challenged so far, with 68% of the recount complete. Coleman still seems to have a slight margin, although FiveThirtyEight.com, an electoral projections website with a good reputation, has predicted a possible Franken victory. The Franken campaign has been pressing Minnesota courts to include thousands of rejected absentee ballots, a potential race changer. The state canvassing board will review the Franken challenge this ...
Nate-stradamus
Rising Hegemon —
If Nate Silver is right about this, then I want people to check and see that he doesn't have a nuclear-powered DeLorean in his garage. Projection: Franken to Win Recount by 27 Votes
Annals of Infighting
The Stump —
As Al Franken gains in the Minnesota recount and the Georgia senate runoff heats up, it's easy to assume that math -- in other words, the slog to 60 seats -- is the principal factor in whether Democrats can push their agenda through the Senate. But since the Senate conferences are so fluid at the edges -- Maine Republican Olympia Snowe might have more in common with Nebraska Democrat Ben Nelson than she does with Mitch McConnell -- party discipline matters a great deal, too. Long-suffering Republicans are getting grumpier about their string of ...
"Sloppy Dems may spell Franken advantage."
Althouse —
... mean Franken votes emerging as the recount continues. “Democrats are [thought to be] more creative, free-spirited, so the idea is they’re more likely to make a mistake that the optical scan won’t pick up,” explains [election law lawyer Robert] Hentges. “But when they recount the hard copy, those votes will be counted for Franken. If you talk to Republicans, they say it will be Franken’s advantage, because Democrats are stupid and will screw up ballots more often.”And FiveThirtyEight does the math with characteristic bravado: "Projection: Franken to Win ...
Monday's campaign round-up
Political Animal —
... that, according to Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, the recount is about 65% complete, and "anywhere from 30 to 40 counties still have to finish or even start the recount process." * Nate Silver believes Franken will eke out a narrow, 27-vote win when all is said and done. * In the Georgia Senate runoff, the Republican National Committee sent cards to GOP voters, which they could in turn send in for absentee ballots. Thousands took advantage of the opportunity, but ...
Anyone for shuffleboard?
The Sideshow —
Shrimplate on viral memes in Flu Season: "I have long wished that economists would subject their work to scientific and rational analysis. Instead of that, the discipline (for lack of a better word) seems to be mired in cold-war assumptions fashioned more to oppose an old and non-existent Soviet ideology than to actually tell us about how the world works." Nate Silver is projecting Al Franken to win by a very narrow majority - but could he be wrong? And if he's right, Norm Coleman will probably contest it, and the GOP has already set everyone ...
Finally: Guy who wrote in “Lizard People” on Coleman-Franken ballot comes forward
Hot Air » Top Picks —
... , though: The recount melodrama could drag on for another month, with Franken favored to eke out a victory thanks to the fact that so many Democratic voters are “free-spirited,” i.e. stupid.
Coleman camp massively increasing challenges
Majikthise —
Nate Silver reports that Norm Coleman's people are challenging ballots at an exponentially increasing rate. Maybe they're spooked by Nate's projection, which has Franken winning by 27 votes. ...
Every Vote Matters in MN's U.S. Senate Hand-Count. Every. Single. One.
The BRAD BLOG —
... Math/statistics/poll-wiz Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com predicts the race between incumbent MN Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and challenger Al Franken (D) could result in a 27 vote win for Franken. That's right, just 27 votes. ...
Chambliss wins in Georgia, Coleman maintains lead in Minnesota
The Reaction —
... says that his "statistical models," which recently projected Franken the eventual winner, "now show Norm Coleman as the favorite to retain his senate seat, although with a high degree of uncertainty and without accounting the effects of potential rejected absentee ballots." ...
Franken's team says they are in the lead...
Crooks and Liars —
... with reporters, Franken's chief counsel Marc Elias said the campaign's own internal count showed them up 22 votes, a jump from the 13 vote deficit that they faced on Tuesday.
"We have approximately 138,000 ballots left to count," said Elias. "94.3 percent of the state has now been counted... Obviously that number is going to change, but we are pleased thus far with how things are going."
Nate Silver's math is a little tricky for me, but he is predicting a Franken win by 27 votes...
I obviously want Franken to win for many important reasons, ...
Franken-Coleman Recount: Franken Still Leads with Still More Ballots to Count
Firedoglake —
... Secondly, I want to say: Looks like Nate Silver pegged this one pretty close when he projected a few weeks ago that Franken would win by 27 votes. As Nate says now, the fact that ...
