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Wasting time
Interesting Times — When it comes to electoral stats I defer to Nate Silver . Certainly, the No on 8 folks might have done a better job of outreach to California's black and Latino communities. But the notion that Prop 8 passed because of the Obama turnout surge is silly. ...

Nate Silver: Obama and the Prop 8 Vote
Burnt Orange Report: - Quick Hits's RSS Feed — Quick Hit's RSS Feed Nate Silver: Obama and the Prop 8 Vote On November 5, much of the LGBT community, and its supporters, felt sad as three states banned gay marriage. Some even felt betrayed by the Obama campaign. Nate Silver , though, makes a good argument that new support for Obama might have strengthened a "no" vote to Prop 8 . Posted at Tue Nov 11, 2008 at 09:52 PM CST ...

Prop 8 Myths
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan — Nate Silver examines several readings of the vote, one of which I advanced: Now, it's true that if new voters had voted against Prop 8 at the same rates that they voted for Obama, the measure probably would have failed. But that does not mean that the new voters were harmful on balance -- they were helpful on balance. If California's electorate had been the same as it was in 2004, Prop 8 would have passed by a wider margin... At the end of the day, Prop 8's passage was more a generational matter than a racial ...

Comment on Not All Good News by tgirsch
Comments for Lean Left — For what it’s worth, Nate Silver disagrees with my assessment of why Prop 8 passed.

Remainders: Orange Mocha Frappuccino
Ben Smith's Blog — Change by Zoolander. Valerie Jarrett talks about the new White House Office of Urban Policy. The big list of political jobs. Rep. Paul Broun (R-Ga.) apologizes for violating Godwin's Law. Warren Christopher won't play a transition role. The artistic director of Sacramento's Musical Theatre donated money to an anti-gay marriage group, which Andrew Sullivan thinks isn't a great career move. Nate Silver argues that Obama's new voters, who were mostly young, actually mostly voted against ...

Black people vs…
Clareified — ... Essentially, or so the argument goes, since black people turned out in record numbers to vote for President-elect Obama, it must be their fault that Prop 8 passed by such a slim margin. I mean everybody knows that black people with their gospel choirs and “oh, lord take me home, Jesus” church going ways must hate those sodomite sinners and voted against equal rights for those deviants. Right? Wrong. According to Nate Silver, at the oh-so-addictive fivethirtyeight.com, says: But the notion that Prop 8 passed because of the ...

Links for 2008-11-12 [del.icio.us]
FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog — ... for Bush 41 when he was in his early 30s, did trade stints in the Commerce Department and was a Deputy U.S. Trade Representative under the current Bush, overseeing trade with Africa and Asia. Fluent in Mandarin Chinese -- a few words of which he put on display to an unexpectant press corps -- Huntsman is the father of seven, including two adopted girls from China and India. Top Prop. 8 individual contributors - Sacramento Bee With Employers Electoral Projections Done Right: Prop 8 Myths - FiveThirtyEight.com: The good news for ...

links for 2008-11-13
FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog — ... Electoral Projections Done Right: Prop 8 Myths - FiveThirtyEight.com: The good news for supporters of marriage equity is that — and there's no polite way to put this — the older voters aren't going to be around for all that much longer, and ...

Come Saturday Morning: Transmitters and Origins
Firedoglake — ... , to fan the flames of race hatred in gays and white progressives, to convince them to spit on Hispanics and African-Americans by claiming that they are responsible for the Prop 8 vote in California:  "In the wake of California's gay marriage ban, Proposition 8, progressives must re-examine their stance on illegal immigration - or suffer the consequences."  Never mind that this myth has been debunked quite conclusively by Nate Silver. ...

Huckabee: Prop. 8 Did Not ‘Prohibit’ Same-Sex Marriage
Think Progress — ... In addition, as Nate Silver recently documented, Huckabee’s claim that “the very people that voted for Barack Obama” also voted to ban same-sex marriage is false. ...

Ellis Weiner: Huckabee: Bleatin' Good in the Neighborhood
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com — ... Except that his reading of the Yes on Eight votes is wrong. As wunderkind poll star Nate Silver says at fivethirtyeight.com: ...

Pam Spaulding: The Meme That Will Not Die: Blacks Enabled Prop 8 to Pass
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com — ... I left somewhat reassured that what was said gave people food for thought, and that they were perhaps ready to actually take action individually to leave their comfort zones to do the difficult work needed to use those tools in the toolbox and communicate beyond our fears about race, religion and difference. If we don't, the religious right will continue to exploit our inability to come to grips with the solvable schisms in our community. Related: * Nate Silver at 538.com takes on the Prop 8 Myths * Open thread - flicks and pics from the ...

“Invasion Of The Transvestites” Not A Horror Movie But A Bill O’Reilly Talking Point
News Hounds — ... Comment: It should be noted that Crowley’s desire to see black churches “targeted” is part of the right wing myth that blacks were responsible for the passing of Prop 8. This is debunked on the excellent statistical site FiveThirtyEight which ascribes the victory to a generational dynamic rather than racial. There was no organized Prop 8 campaign by black churches as there was by the Catholic and Mormon churches. Many black voters (a small percentage of the total number of voters), who voted for Prop 8, attend white churches. But it is interesting that O’Reilly and Crowley seem ...

Raymond Leon Roker: NAACP vs. Gay Marriage: Do The Right Thing
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com — ... Now, I'm not here to bash on religion, or even single out black homophobia as the sole culprit in the marriage equality struggle--the intolerance camp is a multicultural bunch. The messy and unfair ...

Comment on What the Maine Vote Really Means by tgirsch
Comments for Lean Left — ... With respect to the third link, you’ve got it wrong there, too. Generally speaking, it hasn’t been gay rights activist who have blamed “the Black community” for Prop 8. It’s been sneering conservatives who relish in the opportunity to pit one aggrieved group against another. (For the most part, the blame the Mormon church, and rightly so.) And for whatever it’s worth, minority voters didn’t cause Prop 8 to succeed — it was old voters. ...