Follow BeltwayBlips on Twitter
Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls:
The Volokh Conspiracy —
From FiveThirtyEight : 1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls . This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between ...
Exit Polls: You’ve Been Warned
The Moderate Voice —
As I was leaving the office on election day 2004, I distinctly remember the headlines about exit polls predicting a Kerry win by a significant margin — only to learn later that the exit polls were smoking crack.
Nate Silver remembers, too, and offers his “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls.” Enjoy.
Tuesday Turnout stories
AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth —
... friend, Aaron, who votes in Northern Virginia, sent a text he saw a lot of young and new voters at his precinct. He got there at what he thought would be the end of the morning rush and still had to wait 40 minutes. Bruce Elfant in Austin told me last night that 50% of voters in Travis County had already voted -- and the county expected 80% turnout. Ben Smith has been getting emails from his readers around the country. One last thing: Nate Silver says ignore the exit polls. I'm going to take Nate's advice. He hasn't steered me wrong yet. ...
Exit Polls
Lawyers, Guns and Money —
... After 2004 I was never going to make the mistake of paying attention to them again, but just in case you were tempted ... Posted by Scott Lemieux at ...
Exit Polls 2008: See The Full Results
The Huffington Post | Full News Feed —
... Nate Silver, the proprietor of FiveThirtyEight.com, has a very good primer on exit polling up on his site that's worth a long look, but to summarize: exit polls have a much larger margin of error than regular polls, they tend to skew to the Democratic candidate, they proved to be really bad predictors this year, they actually miss a ton of voters, and, ultimately, they can never be reliably sourced. (Believe it or not, I ran across a website yesterday that purported to have exit poll data!) ...
Exit Polls 2008: See The Full Results
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com —
... Nate Silver, the proprietor of FiveThirtyEight.com, has a very good primer on exit polling up on his site that's worth a long look, but to summarize: exit polls have a much larger margin of error than regular polls, they tend to skew to the Democratic candidate, they proved to be really bad predictors this year, they actually miss a ton of voters, and, ultimately, they can never be reliably sourced. (Believe it or not, I ran across a website yesterday that purported to have exit poll data!) ...
Ignore The Exit Polls
Daily Kos —
... leaking after 5 pm, ignore them. They do not tell you what you think they tell you (so saith Inigo Montoya). But even when you ignore that and want to look at them, Read This First. It's from Mark Blumenthal and explains what you will be seeing. You'll learn about how they are done, how they are handling early voters, what to make of what you see on TV... and maybe even a little bit of what exit polls are for (and they are not to call the races.) ;-P Added: Nate Silver's Top 10 reasons To Ignore The Exit Polls, also based on Mark's work. ...
MIDDAY ROUNDUP
News —
... about, of all things, coal, P.M. Carpenter writes at BuzzFlash. FROM THE BLOGS: [image] 2004’s Philly Voter Fraud, Repeated – A. Carpenter, Townhall [image] Third Things – Stephen Green, Vodkapundit [image] Long Lines – Matthew Yglesias [image] The New Poll Tax – Ezra Klein [image] What if McCain Wins? – Reihan Salam, Forbes [image] If McCain Pulls Off the Upset – Marc Ambinder [image] Ten Reasons to Ignore Exit Polls – Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight [image] ...
Fired Up
Taylor Marsh —
... Exit polls will start dribbling forth very soon. Don’t pay attention to them. Nate Silver gives you ten reasons not to, so listen to him. ...
Top Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
Say Anything —
... But exit polls are particularly heinous, and Nate Silver has ten reasons why you should tune out when the talking heads start nattering about them. ...
Waiting For The Exits
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan —
Nate Silver recommends ignoring exit polls. As does Mark Blumenthal. I'll keep an eye out for them regardless. The first ones are due in about an hour. Their main value is historical. By the way: look out for Ambers on CBS tonight. It's a TV debut of sorts. ...
The End Is Near: Election Links You Need
Tennessee Guerilla Women —
... I HAVE ONLY ONE WORD FOR YOU... From MSNBC.com's Bob Sullivan — Satire. — That's how Ralph Nader closed his third-party presidential campaign today at a small press conference in Washington D.C.'s National Press Club. Tim Robbins' name purged from voting rolls -- “I have the time and luxury to do this,” he said of his four-hour ordeal to vote. “If this is a systemic thing, what does that mean for the country?” 10 Reasons to ignore exit polls. After Epic Campaign, Voters Go to ...
Polls, projections, and predictions
The Reaction —
By Michael J.W. Stickings A useful reminder: Nate Silver advises us to ignore the exit polls. I have quoted, cited, and referred to Nate extensively over the course of this long campaign. He is one of the most thoughtful commentators around, not least when it comes to the nebulous world of public opinion polling, and his blogging at FiveThirtyEight (some of it cross-posted to TNR's The Plank) has been essential reading. I don't even hold ...
cue emily latella
skippy the bush kangaroo —
nate @ 538 gives us 10 reasons why you should ignore exit polls. briefly: exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. exit polls have consistently overstated the democratic share of the vote. exit ...
DAY'S END ROUNDUP
News —
... reports on exit polls that show that the race is closer than expected in five key swing states, while the Drudge Report's top headline is that Obama is up big. But these exit polls should be ignored for a number of reasons, including the facts that they were wrong during the primaries, have shown a bias toward Democrats and have larger margins of error than most regular polls, writes FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver . Don't forget that the 2004 exit polls led many to believe that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) was going to be president, writes Pollster.com's ...
Exit Polls: The Good, the Bad, and the Totally Speculative
Weekly Standard Blog —
... NOTE: If you haven't voted, go vote. These numbers should not discourage anyone, as they have a history of being totally wrong. Please see the handy-dandy, "10 Reasons You Should Ignore Exit Polls" while I begin to obsess over them. ...
National Puzzlement No More
Whiskey Fire —
... as an exit pollster. Don't trust a word I say! Since like forever, people have been wondering why exit polls are so fucked up that they underrepresent Republicans by a little under two percent. Why are Republicans "reluctant?" Is it nature or nurture? Were they abused by exit pollsters as children? Did they fail to absorb exit poll hormones in the womb? Nate Silver, who is right about everything, thinks it's attributable to an enthusiasm gap--Democrats are more willing to fill out questionaires "probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election." Nearly identical ...
