fivethirtyeight.com - 10/22/2008
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I doubt that I get as many e-mails on any single subject as I do on the Bradley Effect . In a feature for Newsweek , I take one last more look at the phenomenon: There is little doubt Obama is losing some votes due to his race; a recent Associated Press survey suggested that as many as 6 ...
online.wsj.com - 10/20/2008
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online.wsj.com —
If John McCain manages to overtake Barack Obama,
the media will have a ready answer for the...
result: racism. Over the past generation, every time a black liberal candidate runs for public office, pundits are quick to assert that the so-called Bradley ...
(more)
Tom Bradley Didn't Lose Because of Race
nytimes.com - 10/20/2008
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nytimes.com —
WITH only two weeks to go before the
election, talk has turned to the Bradley effect. The...
phenomenon is named for Tom Bradley, the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, who lost the 1982 California governor’s race even though exit polls predicted ...
(more)
Op-Ed Contributor - What Bradley Effect?
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The White Guilt Effect
Interesting Times —
Reading this 538 post on The Bradley Effect it occurs to me there is another aspect to this effect that isn't discussed much. The presumption in most discussions of this effect is that bigots and racists may tell a pollster that they will vote for Obama because they feel bad expressing their racism out loud, but when election day comes they are alone and so their real feelings come forward. What I think is missing in this analysis is an understanding of voters who couldn't give a crap about Obama's race, but don't want their disagreement with him to be judged on ...
Unbelievable Dive Into a Fantasy-Based Community: Seven Reasons McCain-Palin is a Lock to Win!
Open Left - Front Page —
... I believe that AP story said that up to 6 percent of voters admitted to voting against Obama because of race. But that is not a Bradley effect. A Bradley effect involves telling a Pollster you are voting for Obama out of some sort of political correctness only to vote the other way in the voting booth. More here. Most of what I've heard this year is that this effect has largely disappeared. In the primaries, polling of the of Clinton-Obama race was pretty good except on many occasions when Obama outperformed the poll and one occasion (NH) when Clinton significantly ...
Related Content
The Bradley Effect is Dead
thetalentshow.org 11/2/2008 — I was about to write a post about why I don’t think the Bradley Effect is worth worrying about, but then I found this Newsweek article by Nate Silver that makes the exact same points :
There is little doubt Obama is losing some votes due to ...
The Bradley Non-Effect
corner.nationalreview.com 10/20/2008 — Two op-eds appear today -- one in the New York Times and one in the Wall Street Journal -- each debunking the original Bradley Effect. That is, each of them (the Times version is by a former Bradley aide, and the Journal version by a former aide to ...
Is "the Bradley effect" a "Democrat" effect?
tigerhawk.blogspot.com 10/20/2008 — Ann Coulter looks at the pre-election polls in every presidential election since 1980. In each case, including all those campaigns in which neither candidate was an African-American -- the Republicans performed better on election day than the polls ...
Bradley Effect: R.I.P.
reflectivepundit.com 11/5/2008 — OK, so I stayed up entering all the data by hand just to answer one question: what was the final word on the Bradley Effect I've had to discuss about a million times in the past few weeks. The answer is: nada. I took the last polling projections from ...
If The Bradley Effect is Gone, What Happened To It?
fivethirtyeight.com 10/20/2008 — It was Tom Bradley's 1982 race for governor of California, in which he lost to George Deukmejian in spite of leading in the public polls, that gave the Bradley Effect its name. But now Lance Tarrance, the pollster for Bradley in that race, has an ...
The Reverse-Bradley Effect
washingtonpost.com 10/22/2008 — At this juncture, I wouldn't want to bet even a subprime mortgage on this presidential election. As perhaps never before, multiple hidden factors could alter the outcome.
Will the Bradley Effect Be Obama's Downfall?
abcnews.go.com 10/15/2008 — With the economic crisis center stage, Barack Obama has solidified his lead, pulling ahead of John McCain by 10 points among likely voters, 53-43 percent, in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll. But the question remains: Is that margin enough? ...
McCain would consider second stimulus package —
CNN Political Ticker 10/22/2008
MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) — Republican presidential candidate John McCain said Wednesday he would consider a second economic stimulus package if he is elected president.
He attacked Barack Obama, his Democratic rival for the White House, ...
The S word, again —
First Read 10/22/2008
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy GOFFSTOWN, NH – After nearly a week of dedicating most of his stump speech to Joe the Plumber and Obama’s promise to “spread the wealth around,” McCain slightly shifted his focus today to hit Obama harder on ...
Martin: GOP attacks show fear and desperation —
CNN.com - Politics 10/22/2008
Watching Sen. John McCain and top Republicans swing wildly in their attempts to slam Sen. Barack Obama, with less than two weeks ago to go before Election Day, is like watching an old fighter --clearly out of gas, his legs turned to rubber, and all he ...
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