fivethirtyeight.com - 11/9/2008
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One of the more interesting questions posed on this year's exit polls was whether the voter had been contacted by the Obama and McCain campaigns personally about getting out to vote. Unfortunately, the exit poll consortium did not ask this question in all states, but it did in a dozen or so ...
powerlineblog.com - 11/10/2008
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powerlineblog.com —
The only news Barack Obama made in his
first post-election press conference was when, in a classless
moment, he falsely ridiculed Nancy Reagan for holding "seances" in the White House. He was then compelled to call her to apologize for what he termed ...
(more)
The Importance of Being Careful
althouse.blogspot.com - 11/9/2008
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althouse.blogspot.com —
As promised , I'm mining my archive --
beginning in late August -- to try to understand
how I turned against John McCain. August 25: "Nicely done. I'm glad to see the return of the light touch," I say about an Obama ad that uses the song "What a ...
(more)
How McCain lost me.
americanthinker.com - 11/3/2008
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americanthinker.com —
When the sun rises on November 5, regardless
of who the president-elect is, a more un-United States
than has existed since the Civil War will wake to dispute the results of the disgusting campaign that has mercifully come to an end.
(more)
Say Goodbye to America
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The Hunt for Campaign Effects in 2008
The Monkey Cage —
In earlier posts, I emphasized that election outcomes depend heavily on the fundamental conditions in the country. I also suggested possible ways in which campaigns might matter, although noting that it takes some hardcore polisci-in’ to identify campaign effects.
Two early attempts to identify campaign effects come from Nate Silver and Seth Masket.
Silver looks at exit poll question asking voters whether they were contacted by McCain or Obama. He then subtracts the percent saying McCain from the percent saying Obama. He plots ...
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: "There Is No Ground Game"
mydd.com 10/23/2008 — Today on Morning Joe , Chuck Todd said Barack Obama has a "small but significant lead" in Florida and that "Florida has really slipped away from John McCain," calling the situation "a head-scratcher." This is interesting to hear since it still looks ...
On Obama and Good Men
patterico.com 11/7/2008 — It’s time to quote from some bloggers who have expressed what I’ve been feeling better than I’ve been able to express it.
Beldar:
I agree with — and incorporate by reference, as if fully set forth again here — Patrick’s ...
Things Are Looking Very Good
openleft.com 10/27/2008 — Worried about "the tightening?"
Well, Obama's national lead has been stable at 7% for a month now. The national campaign is not tightening, and we are just seeing statistical noise.
Even if the campaign were tightening, Obama would still have a ...
Ground Game
talkingpointsmemo.com 11/1/2008 — We hear a lot about the Obama campaign's ground game. And in addition to the general perception that McCain's campaign is overmatched in this regard, word came out just yesterday that the McCain campaign has defunded much of its ground operation to make possible one last push on TV. But a short ...
How Does the Electoral Map Change on Tuesday?
thenextright.com 11/4/2008 — Whether it is as largely expected on Tuesday with the Messiah descending upon 1600 or if McCain pulls out a miracle, the electoral map is likely to change in subtle but significant ways that set up 2012 and 2016 and dictate our opportunity states in ...
Today's Polls, 10/14
fivethirtyeight.com 10/15/2008 — Perhaps the CBS poll that shows Barack Obama with a 14-point lead among likely voters (12 points when third-party candidates are included) is a modest outlier. But if so, John McCain has more and more outliers that he has to explain away these days. ...
Ground Game
eschatonblog.com 11/1/2008 — Sean Quinn: We read the published comments from McCain spokespeople that argue the dialing/canvassing numbers are ahead of where they were at the same time four years ago. Well, either the Bush ground game of 2004 was the Big Myth, or those ...
What to Make of the Polls
anonymousliberal.com 10/29/2008 — This has been an especially odd election when it comes to polls. We're seeing an exceptionally large divergence in both state and national poll numbers, not only in absolute numbers but in trendlines. Both of these phenomena are worth pondering. ...
The day after: post-election reflections
neoneocon.com 11/9/2008 — A few minutes into the second Presidetial debate, I realized McCain was almost certain to lose this election.
I had been thinking that a McCain defeat was the likely outcome ever since the financial crisis began. But that debate was very ...
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