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Time to Use the D-Word
J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles —
... The world economy is tracking or doing worse than during the Great Depression: To sum up, globally we are tracking or doing even worse than the Great Depression, whether the metric is industrial production, exports or equity valuations. Focusing on the US causes one to minimize this alarming fact. The “Great Recession” label may turn out to be too optimistic. This is a Depression-sized event. ...
It's 1930 time
Paul Krugman —
Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke have an alarming paper in Vox EU , showing that if you take a global view, the world slump since early 2008 is as bad or worse than the slump from 1929-30. It’s full of pictures like this one, showing monthly volume of world trade: What this says is that the world economy right now is more or less at the point Keynes described in his essay ...
Too Little Too Late?
Balloon Juice —
... That is from a series of arguments stating that the world economy is as bad or worse than it was during the Great Depression. At any rate, it looks like other nations are embracing stimulus: ...
Global Economic Shock Worse Than Great Depression
Politics on HuffingtonPost.com —
... The global economic collapse of the last several months is already greater than the shock that hit the world 80 years ago, triggering the Great Depression, two economists reported Tuesday. ...
Our Great Depression
The Moderate Voice —
Barry Eichengreen and Kevin H. O’Rourke say we’re in one:
[T]he world is currently undergoing an economic shock every bit as big as the Great Depression shock of 1929-30. Looking just at the US leads one to overlook how alarming the current situation is even in comparison with 1929-30.
The good news, of course, is that the policy response is very different. The question now is whether that policy response will work.
I’m reminded of recession dating. We may be in one ...
Don't Call it a Comeback
Open Left - Front Page —
... holds that "The one positive sign is that some forecasters are beginning to recognize that growth in 2010 is not a foregone conclusion"; at Vox EU economists plotted frightening graphs showing how the global downturn is in some ways worse than the Great Depression; and a ...
Green shoots and tea leaves
Paul Krugman —
... . OK, a couple of things. One is that even in the Great Depression, things didn’t head down all the time. The chart above, from Eichengreen and O’Rourke , shows world industrial production in months from the previous peak, in the Depression and in the current crisis. Notice that there were several upturns along the way; each of those could have been — and was! — heralded as the beginning of recovery. Meanwhile, about those great numbers from Wells Fargo: remember, reported profits aren’t a hard number; they involve a lot of assumptions. And at least some analysts are saying ...
The Economy: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
The Moderate Voice —
... yield is likely, which will push mortgage rates above 6% and damper long term debt issuance. The mortgage blogs I read (e.g. this) are in a near panic as they are scared that everyone is going to walk away from the market. They are begging the Fed to step in and buy mortgages..although that’s definitely their perspective because all that will do is drive the dollar lower and make gas prices skyrocket even more (which they readily admit).
And as for the ugly? What green shoots?
Scary Chart Of The Day
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan —
Via Rich Florida, Courtesy of Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O'Rourke.
The "Depression-Sized Event" Continues
Swampland —
Forget what the CNBC squawkers tells you. We are not out of the woods yet. Economic measures continue to track remarkably closesly with the downturn in 1929, the start of the Great Depression. These charts , by Barry Eichengreen of the University of California at Berkeley and Kevin O'Rourke of Trinity College, Dublin, tell the story. One key quote: "World industrial production continues to track closely the 1930s fall, with no clear signs of ‘green shoots'." The good news, the authors explain, is that the policy response has been different this time, so the worst can still be ...
A TALE OF TWO DEPRESSIONS. These depressing graphics suggest to me that people are following the Sa…
Instapundit —
A TALE OF TWO DEPRESSIONS. These depressing graphics suggest to me that people are following the Saturday Night Live “don’t buy stuff you can’t afford” advice.
But that’s terrible for the economy!
...
The Recovery Myth
Open Left - Front Page —
... Wolf draws directly on the work of Barry Eichengreen and Kevin H. O'Rourke, whose June 4 article at Voxeu.org, "A Tale of Two Depressions", carried this into note: ...
The story so far, in one picture
Paul Krugman —
World industrial production in the Great Depression and now: DESCRIPTION Data for the Depression courtesy of Eichengreen and O’Rourke . Data for the Great Recession (starting April 2008) from ...
Depression multipliers
Paul Krugman —
Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke have lately been scoring a series of research coups, based on the combination of historical perspective and a global view. Most famously, they showed that on a global basis the first year of the current crisis was every bit as severe as the first year of the Great Depression. Now they and collaborators have a ...
