openleft.com - 11/2/2008
—
When I tell people how well Obama is doing in the polls, here are three of the most common responses I receive:
"Yeah, but Kerry was winning at the end of the campaign, too."
"Yeah, but Kerry was way ahead among early voters, too."
"Yeah, but Republicans always do better in the final results ...
corner.nationalreview.com - 11/3/2008
—
corner.nationalreview.com —
I've just come back from a weekend in
Vermont -- and here's how I understand it: Modestly...
off people -- "real Vermonters," as some people say -- are voting for McCain and Palin. Comfortably off people, such as those who own ski chalets, are voting for ...
(more)
Dept. of Enduring Myths
hotair.com - 11/5/2008
—
hotair.com —
Congratulations go to Barack Obama for his victory
last night. He did what few Democrats have managed...
to do this century: win majorities in both popular vote and the Electoral College. Bill Clinton couldn’t do that in either election, and he ...
(more)
That’s what elections are for
yglesias.thinkprogress.org - 11/3/2008
—
yglesias.thinkprogress.org —
Jay Nordlinger writes at The Corner : Dept.
of Enduring Myths [Jay Nordlinger] I’ve just come back...
from a weekend in Vermont — and here’s how I understand it: Modestly off people — “real Vermonters,” as some people say — are voting for McCain ...
(more)
Myths and Realities
Comments
Blog Reactions
2008 Polls Versus 2004 Polls
Matthew Yglesias —
Something funny happened in 2004 where a lot of progressives convinced themselves near the end that John Kerry was likely to win the election even though he was narrowly behind in the polls. Then a lot of people have gone and misremembered that as thinking that Kerry was likely to win because he was ahead in the polls, which he wasn’t. Thus, many are left unable to believe that Obama’s lead in the polls makes his victory likely.
Fortunately, Chris Bowers has a comparison chart we can believe in:
As you can see, Kerry is running well ahead of where Obama was. The ...
Polling Trends: 2000 v. 2004 v. 2008
PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts —
... the polling in the last two cycles has actually been pretty accurate.
If people think that they remember the polls being more favorable to Kerry than they ended up to be, it is likely that what is being remembered is that early exit polls in 2004 seemed to indicate a Kerry win, but that those numbers ended up being flawed (for a trip down memory lane see here, here, here and here).
I noted this particular graph via Chris Bowers’ post on Three Big Myths About The 2004 and 2008 Elections.
At any rate, the likelihood of the ...
Related Content
Prop 8 Myths
fivethirtyeight.com 11/12/2008 — Writes Dan Walters of the Sacramento Bee: Last week, however, 10 percent of voters were African American while 18 percent were Latino, and applying exit poll data to that extra turnout reveals that the pro-Obama surge among those two groups gave ...
US children want Kerry: Poll: World: US Elections 2004
news24.com 10/21/2008 — 21/10/2004 17:15 - (SA) Washington - A strong majority of American children support Democratic White House hopeful John Kerry over President George W Bush in the election less than two weeks away, according to an online poll released on Wednesday by ...
2008 Polls Versus 2004 Polls
yglesias.thinkprogress.org 11/3/2008 — Something funny happened in 2004 where a lot of progressives convinced themselves near the end that John Kerry was likely to win the election even though he was narrowly behind in the polls. Then a lot of people have gone and misremembered that as ...
Obama Leading In Eight Battlegrounds Bush Led In Four Years Ago
tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com 10/28/2008 — Here's another way to assess the state of the race right now: We've drawn up a chart comparing the Real Clear Politics averages right now in 13 core battleground states with the RCP averages in the same states from right before the 2004 election .
...
Obama should be like Bush
the-reaction.blogspot.com 11/10/2008 — By Michael J.W. Stickings At least according to TNR's Jonathan Cohn. Cohn argues that has actually accomplished a great deal as president, from overhauling the tax code to reforming education to gutting the regulatory state to rewriting ...
5 Myths About Torture and Truth
washingtonpost.com 12/23/2008 — Comments that include profanity or personal attacks or other inappropriate comments or material will be removed from the site. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. ...
Was the 2004 Election Stolen?
rollingstone.com 10/20/2008 — Like many Americans, I spent the evening of the 2004 election watching the returns on television and wondering how the exit polls, which predicted an overwhelming victory for John Kerry, had gotten it so wrong. By midnight, the official tallies showed ...
The day after: post-election reflections
neoneocon.com 11/9/2008 — A few minutes into the second Presidetial debate, I realized McCain was almost certain to lose this election.
I had been thinking that a McCain defeat was the likely outcome ever since the financial crisis began. But that debate was very ...
Financial myths exposed
tigerhawk.blogspot.com 11/20/2008 — Flipping through the December issue of Esquire (no, I do not read it for the fashion tips, as anybody who has watched TigerHawk TV well knows), I saw at least two paragraphs of such transporting truth that I insist on passing them along:
Myth: Home ...
2004 vs. 2008
motherjones.com 11/3/2008 — 2004 vs. 2008.... Back in 2004, I remember at least a few bloggers and pundits arguing that liberals would be better off if John Kerry lost. I never really bought this, but the arguments were pretty reasonable. Leaving George Bush in power meant that ...
McCain vs. Obama: The final push —
First Read 11/2/2008
The New York Times says McCain and
Obama “began their final push for the White House on Saturday across an
electoral map markedly different from four years ago, evidence of Mr.
Obama’s success at putting new states into contention and limiting ...
Obama to voters: 'Be my ambassadors' —
CNN Political Ticker 11/2/2008
(CNN) – In the final hours of campaigning, Sen. Barack Obama is urging his supporters to "be my ambassadors" and "close the deal."
In these last three days, we can't afford to slow down or sit back or let up … not now, not when there's so ...
Follow BeltwayBlips on Twitter
