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White House

Barack Obama

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fivethirtyeight.com - 11/2/2008

Today's Polls, 11/1

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This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states. I should caution that by far the most likely scenario is that Obama wins some ...

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fivethirtyeight.com - 10/31/2008

The Big Empty

— fivethirtyeight.com — As the only reporter during this election who has actually visited upwards of 50 of John McCain's... field offices around the country (13 battleground states and counting), this piece by Matthew Mosk at the Washington Post comes as no surprise: The ... (more) The Big Empty

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fivethirtyeight.com - 11/3/2008

Today's Polls, 3 AM Edition (11/3)

— fivethirtyeight.com — Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since our update this afternoon. We now have him with... a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and ... (more) Today's Polls, 3 AM Edition (11/3)

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Barack Obama

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4

marcambinder.theatlantic.com - 11/1/2008

A McCain Campaign Memo

— marcambinder.theatlantic.com — The last thing the McCain campaign needs on election day is demoralized Republicans. Hence this memo, which... recapitulates what Davis and co. said on a conference call with reporters this morning. From: Rick Davis, McCain-Palin Campaign  ... (more) A McCain Campaign Memo

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Pennsylvania
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan — McCain has been doing better there, especially in the West of the state - surprise!. Silver: The Pennslyvania polls have probably tightened by more than one point, although it is important to note that the four polls that show the state in the mid- single digits (Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, ARG and Strategic Vision) have all had Republican leans so far this cycle. Pennsylvania is still an extreme long shot for John McCain -- Obama is more likely to win Arizona than McCain the Keystone -- just not quite the long-shot that it had looked like a couple of days ...

Five states
Ben Smith's Blog — Nate Silver has a useful way to look at the race: We can probably assume ... that IF the national polls tighten significantly (and to reiterate, the likelihood is that they will NOT), McCain will edge out a victory in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Missouri; put those states in the McCain column for the time being. Likewise, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa all appear safe for Obama, even in the case of significant tightening. Put those in the Obama column. That leaves our five states in ...

11/2 Daily Kos R2K Tracking Poll: Obama , McCain
Daily Kos — ... early/absentee voted, compared to 12% a week ago. Among these voters, Obama today leads 52-47%. From Gallup: These early voters are more likely to say they have voted for Barack Obama than for John McCain, by a 55% to 40% margin. Among those who plan to vote on Election Day, the spread is much closer -- only a 48% to 45% Obama advantage. The Presidential race, of course, comes down to the 50 separate EV contests. Nate Silver on the important states: This is beginning to look like a ...

The map made easy
Jonathan Martin's Blog — ... Nate Silver sketches out some of the scenarios, arguing that the race is now largely down to five states.   Given these scenarios -- in which Flordia is even put in the GOP column -- it's easy to see why McCain's path is so narrow: ...

Commander-in-Good-Grief
Unqualified Offerings — ... . Greenwald continues: It certainly seems, by all appearances , that Barack Obama and Joe Biden will win on Tuesday (though anything can happen, don’t assume anything, etc. etc.).  For reasons I’ve explained many times before, I consider that to be a good and important outcome (principally due to the need to excise the Right from power for as long as possible).  But the virtually complete absence from the presidential campaign of any issues pertaining to the executive power abuses of the last eight years — illegal eavesdropping, torture, rendition, due-process-less detentions, ...

Electoral Scenarios
PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts — ... Nate Silver looks at the polls and concludes that the race on Tuesday boils down to five states: Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Nevada and he details the scenarios using those five states necessary for an Obama win. He continues: ...

Five States To Watch
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan — Silver: We can probably assume...that IF the national polls tighten significantly (and to reiterate, the likelihood is that they will NOT), McCain will edge out a victory in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Missouri; put those states in the McCain column for the time being. Likewise, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa all appear safe for Obama, even in the case of significant tightening. Put those in the Obama column. That leaves our five states in play. ...

Obama is Not Our Commander in Chief
Garling Gauge — ... , described the history of how the term "commander in chief" has recently been expanded and abused, and wrote:  "The glorification of the president as a war leader is registered in numerous and substantial executive aggrandizements; but it is symbolized in other ways that, while small in themselves, dispose the citizenry to accept those aggrandizements." * * * * * It certainly seems, by all appearances , that Barack Obama and Joe Biden will win on Tuesday (though anything can happen, don't assume anything, etc. etc.).  For reasons I've explained many times before, I consider ...