fivethirtyeight.com - 11/3/2008
—
With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House. The national polls have all consolidated into a range ...
fivethirtyeight.com - 11/4/2008
—
fivethirtyeight.com —
It's Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in
America. The last polls have straggled in, and show...
little sign of mercy for John McCain. Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory. Our model projects that Obama will win all states ...
(more)
Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, ...
americanthinker.com - 11/3/2008
—
americanthinker.com —
When the sun rises on November 5, regardless
of who the president-elect is, a more un-United States...
than has existed since the Civil War will wake to dispute the results of the disgusting campaign that has mercifully come to an end.
(more)
Say Goodbye to America
fivethirtyeight.com - 11/3/2008
—
fivethirtyeight.com —
Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since
our update this afternoon. We now have him with...
a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and ...
(more)
Today's Polls, 3 AM Edition (11/3)
Comments
Blog Reactions
Of Margins and Landslides
The Stump —
... With the final national polls settling around Obama +7, I realized that I didn't have a good sense of what that number would mean, in historical context. Turns out it's about the margin of George H.W. Bush's ...
1.9%
Hoffmania! —
... That's the election eve chance Nate Silver gives McCain of winning the presidential race tomorrow. Don't celebrate. Nothing's a lock in this political environment. Vote. ...
Carl Cameron: Optimism growing inside McCain camp
Hot Air » Top Picks —
... Salter , and other senior aides suddenly so bubbly? Their internal polls, in all likelihood. Lead pollster Bill McInturff pronounced the race too close to call in a memo sent out late last week that claimed things were trending their way in the battlegrounds. They must have gotten more good news over the weekend. Someone had better tell Joe the Plumber because he’s sounding even more pessimistic than I am. Stats wizard Nate Silver puts their odds at 1.9% . Click the image to watch. [image]
Last Minute Polling Crack
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan —
Nate Silver: McCain's chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or "Shy Tory" Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.
However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is
unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, ...
Related Content
Today's Polls, 10/27
fivethirtyeight.com 10/28/2008 — John McCain is making no progress in his pursuit of the White House. Our model now projects Barack Obama to win 351 electoral votes to John McCain's 187, and to win the Electoral College 96.7 percent of the time to McCain's 3.3 percent. Both numbers ...
Today's Polls, 10/26
fivethirtyeight.com 10/27/2008 — While there are a few surprises here and there, once again the theme of today's polls is stability in the race for the White House. John McCain narrowed his gap significantly in today's Zogby tracking poll, drawing from 9.5 points behind to 5.3. As ...
Today's Polls, 10/14
fivethirtyeight.com 10/15/2008 — Perhaps the CBS poll that shows Barack Obama with a 14-point lead among likely voters (12 points when third-party candidates are included) is a modest outlier. But if so, John McCain has more and more outliers that he has to explain away these days. ...
Today's Polls, 10/29
fivethirtyeight.com 10/30/2008 — We're getting to you a little bit late tonight, so let's keep this short and to the point... With no fewer than 45 polls released since our last update, covering essentially all of the major swing states, we have a pretty good idea of where this ...
Today's Polls, 11/2: Afternoon Edition
fivethirtyeight.com 11/2/2008 — Polls conducted since our update last evening suggest some tightening toward John McCain, but he sits well behind both nationwide and in many key battleground states and remains a long-shot to win the election. The good news for McCain? SurveyUSA has ...
Today's Polls, 10/20
fivethirtyeight.com 10/22/2008 — It's been a confusing day of polling -- one of those where I'm happy to have a computer handy to do my dirty work for me. The trend over the past 7-10 days remains slightly toward McCain. It is difficult to pinpoint, however, just where the movement ...
Today's Polls, 10/28
fivethirtyeight.com 10/29/2008 — Stop me if you've heard this one before. Although the national trackers look slightly stronger for John McCain than they did a couple days ago, Barack Obama once again had an exceptionally good day in the state-level numbers. To review the national ...
Today's Polls, 10/31
fivethirtyeight.com 11/1/2008 — Is Pennsylvania John McCain's last, best hope? Perhaps it is. But that speaks as much to McCain's problems elsewhere on the map as any success he has had in the Keystone State. Pennsylvania does seem to be narrowing a bit: the Muhlenberg / Morning ...
Today's Polls, 10/25
fivethirtyeight.com 10/26/2008 — With fewer than ten days to go until the election, John McCain is another day older and deeper in the polls.: It is hard to find any trend at all at the national level, although Barack Obama's position improved has incrementally in a couple of the ...
Today's Polls, 10/16
fivethirtyeight.com 10/17/2008 — With seven different daily tracking polls to work with -- one of which releases three separate versions of its model each day -- there is a lot to choose from for those who might seek to cherry-pick results. Slow news day, Matt? If this is a ...
Obama, McCain fire final shots of campaign —
Reuters: Politics 11/4/2008
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain took their final shots at each other and swept across battleground states on Monday to wrap up a U.S. presidential campaign in which Obama was leading but McCain hoped to pull off ...
Nader Hoping To Bring In His Most Votes Ever —
Wash Post Elections 11/4/2008
While the two major-party presidential candidates were traveling the country with huge media entourages on the final day of the campaign, Ralph Nader stayed in his Washington headquarters giving interviews by telephone and complaining about being ...
Obama leads McCain in 6 of 8 key states —
Reuters: Politics 11/4/2008
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain in six of eight key battleground states one day before the U.S. election, including the big prizes of Florida and Ohio, according to a series of Reuters/Zogby polls released on ...
Polls Show Obama With Clear Advantage —
Wash Post Elections 11/4/2008
Democrat Barack Obama, seeking a history-making victory in a presidential campaign that has captivated the country as few others ever have, maintained a clear advantage over Republican John McCain yesterday as the two made final appeals in ...
Follow BeltwayBlips on Twitter
