fivethirtyeight.com - 11/3/2008
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Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since our update this afternoon. We now have him with a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and 93.7, respectively. I continue to find a hair's ...
fivethirtyeight.com - 11/2/2008
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fivethirtyeight.com —
This is beginning to look like a five-state
election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and...
Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states. I should caution that by far the most ...
(more)
Today's Polls, 11/1
fivethirtyeight.com - 11/4/2008
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fivethirtyeight.com —
It's Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in
America. The last polls have straggled in, and show...
little sign of mercy for John McCain. Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory. Our model projects that Obama will win all states ...
(more)
Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, ...
fivethirtyeight.com - 10/29/2008
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fivethirtyeight.com —
Stop me if you've heard this one before.
Although the national trackers look slightly stronger for John...
McCain than they did a couple days ago, Barack Obama once again had an exceptionally good day in the state-level numbers. To review the national ...
(more)
Today's Polls, 10/28
Comments
Blog Reactions
Early Morning Swim: The Day Before Edition
Firedoglake —
... Obama up in 6 of 8 real states battlegrounds.
USA Today +11.
CBS +13.
WaPo/ABC +11.
WSJ +8%.
Nate's at 5.8%.
Obama's favorables at 62% -- best since 1992.
Arizona Daily Star hates America.
Headline to love -- "Republicans scrambling to save seats."
Palin 2012! More evidence that Palin is hurting the ticket.
Not going quietly: McSame doing 7 rallies in 7 states.
Krugman: ...
The McCain Surge: Pipe Dreams or Prescience?
The Moderate Voice —
... RCP is good, but I usually wind up going back to check with Nate Silver. As of 3 am this morning he has a couple of the last, well modeled polls showing Obama still holding a modest but apparently solid lead and rates the state has having only a 2% chance of “tipping” tomorrow. ...
The Race as of 3 AM Sunday
J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles —
... FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Today's Polls, 3 AM Edition (11/3): Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since our update this afternoon. We now have him with a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time.... Obama's win percentage has ticked upward again for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he's gotten some relatively good numbers out of Pennsylvania since our last update, with PPP and Zogby giving him leads of 8 and 14 points, respectively, and Rasmussen showing his lead expanding to 6 ...
Taylor Marsh —
BY TAYLOR MARSH
Re-introducing ... "In the News." Use it. Links. Video. Comments. See Scott’s post. GeoT’s post. With RD having the goods on parts of PA.
You go, Christopher.
Same goes for Major Garrett.
All that’s left is to get out the vote. Nate Silver: ...
Polls: Obama Solid Nationally But McCain Shows Traction In Some Battleground States
The Moderate Voice —
... their views on the issues, they split almost evenly, with a slight edge to McCain. With all likely voters allocated to candidates, Obama led 53-46 percent, with 1 percent still for Nader.
If Obama were able to match that Tuesday, it would mark the first time that a Democrat has topped 50 percent in a national election since Jimmy Carter won 50.1 percent of the popular vote in 1976.
The survey includes people who’ve already voted.
*FiveThirtyEight sees Obama gaining nationally while the races become closer in some key ...
I WANT MY COUNTRY BACK
Taylor Marsh —
BY TAYLOR MARSH
All that’s left is to get out the vote. Nate Silver:
However, Obama’s win percentage has ticked upward again for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he’s gotten some relatively good ...
DAY'S END ROUNDUP
News —
... are still holding out hope that John McCain can eke out an Electoral College victory. Bloggers on the right also disagree with a left-of-center columnist who argues that Americans' disapproval of McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, signals the end of the culture war. And just as the country prepares to vote, Obama gets news that his grandmother has passed away, bloggers note. Obama has a 96 percent chance of winning according to the projections by FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver . The Democrat's chances increased Monday, thanks to strong polling numbers for Obama in ...
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Today's Polls, 11/2: Afternoon Edition
fivethirtyeight.com 11/2/2008 — Polls conducted since our update last evening suggest some tightening toward John McCain, but he sits well behind both nationwide and in many key battleground states and remains a long-shot to win the election. The good news for McCain? SurveyUSA has ...
Today's Polls, 11/3 (PM Edition)
fivethirtyeight.com 11/3/2008 — With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House. The ...
Today's Polls, 10/26
fivethirtyeight.com 10/27/2008 — While there are a few surprises here and there, once again the theme of today's polls is stability in the race for the White House. John McCain narrowed his gap significantly in today's Zogby tracking poll, drawing from 9.5 points behind to 5.3. As ...
Today's Polls, 10/21
fivethirtyeight.com 10/22/2008 — After some incremental improvements by John McCain over the course of the past week, we are now looking once again a handful of polls showing Barack Obama with a double-digit lead -- most dramatically his 14-point advantage in the latest Pew poll . ...
Today's Polls, 10/14
fivethirtyeight.com 10/15/2008 — Perhaps the CBS poll that shows Barack Obama with a 14-point lead among likely voters (12 points when third-party candidates are included) is a modest outlier. But if so, John McCain has more and more outliers that he has to explain away these days. ...
Today's Polls, 10/16
fivethirtyeight.com 10/17/2008 — With seven different daily tracking polls to work with -- one of which releases three separate versions of its model each day -- there is a lot to choose from for those who might seek to cherry-pick results. Slow news day, Matt? If this is a ...
Today's Polls, 10/19
fivethirtyeight.com 10/20/2008 — Well, scratch West Virginia from the swing state list for the time being. Both Public Policy Polling and Mason-Dixon have new polling out in the state, and they give John McCain leads of 8 and 6 points respectively. It's possible that this is one of ...
Today's Polls, 10/25
fivethirtyeight.com 10/26/2008 — With fewer than ten days to go until the election, John McCain is another day older and deeper in the polls.: It is hard to find any trend at all at the national level, although Barack Obama's position improved has incrementally in a couple of the ...
Today's Polls, 10/27
fivethirtyeight.com 10/28/2008 — John McCain is making no progress in his pursuit of the White House. Our model now projects Barack Obama to win 351 electoral votes to John McCain's 187, and to win the Electoral College 96.7 percent of the time to McCain's 3.3 percent. Both numbers ...
Today's Polls, 10/20
fivethirtyeight.com 10/22/2008 — It's been a confusing day of polling -- one of those where I'm happy to have a computer handy to do my dirty work for me. The trend over the past 7-10 days remains slightly toward McCain. It is difficult to pinpoint, however, just where the movement ...
Poll update: McCain on defense in Bush states —
CNN Political Ticker 11/3/2008
McCain is campaigning to defend several Bush states.
(CNN) – New CNN state polls of polls released on the final full day of the 2008 campaign show Barack Obama holding on to battleground states won by John Kerry four years ago – and tied with ...
Obama: Even-keeled —
First Read 11/3/2008
The New York Times’ Zeleny writes about what may be one of the secrets to Obama’s success, if he wins tomorrow: his even-keel demeanor. “While Mr. Obama smiles less than he once did, gauging his mood simply by looking at him is risky: his baseline ...
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