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fivethirtyeight.com - 8/26/2008
Today's Polls, 8/26
—
There is a lot of nervous buzz today about the national tracking polls. Gallup now gives John McCain a 2-point lead, the first time he has had an advantage of any amount since late May. Rasmussen , meanwhile, has the race converging back into a tie, after having shown Barack Obama ahead by 3 points yesterday. This tracking polling will NOT reflect any convention bounce (or its absence). ...

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TalkLeft:  Conventional Wisdom

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan:  Awaiting The Bounce

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Conventional Wisdom
TalkLeft — Nate Silver writes: I tend to agree with the conventional wisdom that there was liable to be a bit of a near-term backlash whenever Obama announced his VP choice, provided that the VP was not Hillary Clinton . . . (Emphasis supplied.) Funny, I never heard that anywhere before except, oh yes here, on June 8: I'd like to interrupt this Unity Day message with a small reminder to the Barack Obama campaign and the Democratic Party - unless he picks Hillary Clinton as his running mate - the day he announces his ...

Awaiting The Bounce
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan — Nate Silver urges everyone be patient: ...our research has concluded that there typically is not any bounce until the third day of the convention. As such, this polling tells us nothing at all about the convention so far, and it probably won't tell us a whole lot until at least Thursday or Friday. It might tell us something about Joe Biden. I tend to agree with the conventional wisdom that there was liable to be a bit of a near-term backlash whenever Obama announced his VP choice, provided that the VP was not Hillary Clinton. ...

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