fivethirtyeight.com - 10/28/2008
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There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College? Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to ...
hotair.com - 11/4/2008
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hotair.com —
Allahpundit covered the national polling from Fox and
Rasmussen in his earlier post, and now a somewhat...
contradictory set of numbers have come out of the battleground states. The state polls show some hope for McCain yet in the states he needs to ...
(more)
Fox/Rasmussen battleground polls: Tightening
marcambinder.theatlantic.com - 10/29/2008
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marcambinder.theatlantic.com —
So -- here's what seems to be happening
nationally. Nationally, John McCain seems to be gaining an...
eensy bit of traction among Republican base voters and conservative leaning independents. A dew drips worth of white men here, a few drips among rural ...
(more)
The Polls -- They Are... Tightening. And Not Tightening.
mydd.com - 10/28/2008
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mydd.com —
Re: About That Tightening ( none / 0
) Thing is, though, following these ebbs and flows...
as meaningful for the future is the same principle as technical chart analysis for the stock market. It encompasses all psychology, all thought, all emotion, ...
(more)
: About That Tightening
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Blog Reactions
Where’s the Tightening?
The Moderate Voice —
... Nate Silver, the best at this sort of analysis, says the following has to happen before we can expect a close outcome on election night: “John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.” ...
The Poll Dance: No Tights
Swampland —
... Says FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver (last night): "There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not." ...
What Would Tightening Look Like?
The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan —
Nate Silver: In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:
John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania. Not happening yet, at least. ...
Bill Kristol: Accentuatin' The Positive
Crooks and Liars —
... to be EXTREMELY aggressive this time of year. There have been relatively few 'fresh' polls conducted within the past 24-48 hours -- most of these state polls were in the field late last week. As we get more data in today and tonight, the model could very well decide that the race is not tightening at all. Moreover, polls conducted on a weekend -- particularly on a quasi- holiday weekend -- is generally unreliable. Secondly, even with this tightening, McCain remains well short the 2/2/2 condition that we defined last week: John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more ...
Related Content
Race Tightening? Where?
3bluedudes.com 10/20/2008 — There have been alot of news media and blogs reporting the Presidential race is tightening. Even Barack Obama said he ‘expects’ the race to tighten. Latest national polling though paints a different picture. The race appears to be slightly widening again, after some minor tightening last week. ...
Waiting For The Tightening
andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com 10/27/2008 — Mark Blumenthal : Trends are what I concentrate on in these morning summaries, and for the last two weeks we have seen little evidence of an erosion in Barack Obama's lead. If anything Obama's position today -- in both the national and state level ...
The Slow Tightening Of The Race
strata-sphere.com 10/19/2008 — With two plus weeks to go before voting things might finally be turning John McCain's way. I have predicted this race would go down to the decisions made by voters on election day, and that seems to be the case. However, I am not overly confident at ...
CNN Poll: Race may be tightening
politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com 10/20/2008 — Obama has a 5 point lead over McCain in the latest CNN poll.
WASHINGTON (CNN) — With two weeks and one day until election day, a new national poll of likely voters suggests the race for the White House may be tightening up.
In a CNN/Opinion ...
With the race supposedly tightening, McCain guarantees victory
the-reaction.blogspot.com 10/27/2008 — By Michael J.W. Stickings With the race apparently tightening, McCain was on Meet the Press this morning. Among other things, he... guaranteed victory ? Here's what he said: "I guarantee you that two weeks from now, you will see this has been ...
Palin sees polls tightening in closing days
politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com 10/24/2008 — SPRINGFIELD, Missouri (CNN) — Perched on a stage in a chilly parking lot outside a Bass Pro Shops store in Springfield, Missouri, Sarah Palin promised a crowd of bundled up supporters Friday that the presidential race is tightening in these ...
Tightening the Belts
mudvillegazette.com 1/11/2009 — ...or "Apocalypse not Now". Another entry from the Jan/Feb Military Review :
" Thickening the lines: Sons of Iraq, a combat multiplier " (pdf), Major Andrew W. Koloski, U.S. Army, and Lieutenant Colonel John S. Kolasheski, U.S. Army.
...
PA: 5
corner.nationalreview.com 10/31/2008 — More tightening, but Obama still ahead:
Strategic Vision, LLC, an Atlanta-headquartered public relations and public affairs agency, announced the results of a three-day poll of 1200 likely voters in Pennsylvania on various political issues. The ...
Things Are Looking Very Good
openleft.com 10/27/2008 — Worried about "the tightening?"
Well, Obama's national lead has been stable at 7% for a month now. The national campaign is not tightening, and we are just seeing statistical noise.
Even if the campaign were tightening, Obama would still have a ...
McCain: Ensign vs. McCain? —
First Read 10/28/2008
By the way, it's never good when the person in charge of the Senate races for the party starts pointing fingers at the top of the ticket before the election even takes place. "Ensign said there is a 'fair possibility' that Democrats could gain 60 ...
Obama: Covering Obama —
First Read 10/28/2008
The Los Angeles Times notes the lack of access the press has had in covering Obama. “First Clinton, then John McCain made the argument that Obama is someone we don't really know. Obama's supporters counter that we have his record in the U.S. and ...
Palin: Looking to 2012? —
First Read 10/28/2008
Politico’s Roger Simon asks: Is Palin prepping for a bid four years from now? “Sarah Palin may soon be free. Soon, she may not have the millstone of John McCain around her neck. And she can begin her race for president in 2012. Some are already ...
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