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Jonathan Garthwaite: The Morning Line
Townhall.com Blog's TownHall Blog — ... Posted by: Jonathan Garthwaite at 9:48 AM Zogby's number out this morning has Obama up 9.6% (51.6%-42), widening over the past three days. Rasmussen has ...

The Coming Collapse
Daily Pundit — Zogby International Pollster John Zogby: “Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan’s victory over Carter — but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 ...

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama Increases Lead Over McCain In Possible “Blowout”
The Moderate Voice — ... Pollster John Zogby reports that Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama is now increasing his lead over Republican Sen. John McCain in what could be shaping up as what Zogby calls a “blowout.” ...

Obama Down Two Points To McCain In Military Households
Say Anything — But only two points.  And pretty much every other crosstab in this Zogby poll looks god-awful: If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton’s ...

Some Likely Voter Models are Suspect
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right — ... 1. Among people who have already voted, Democrats lead overwhelmingly. Zogby pegs Barack Obama's advantage at 27 points among people who have already voted. The ...

Fox: Obama + 9; AP -- Race Tied.
The Atlantic Politics Channel — Here's the Fox numbers (49-40% among likely voters). AP has Obama up 1 among likely voters, up 5 among registered voters, and up ten among adults. Obama leads by five in the Hotline/Diageo tracking and by at least five in all three Gallup models. Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby give Obama the lead by ten points. RCP has Obama averaging  a 6.8% lead.

Conflicting polls - Who’s on first?
Roger L. Simon — Watching the news these days, you would think Obama is headed for a Reagan-like landslide. Zogby seems to think so. But then an AP poll pops up with the candidates too close to call. I tend to think it’s somewhere in the middle but we all know what opinions are like… Everybody’s got one. More interesting to me as a mystery writer is this report (ht: Jamie Irons) from the Postliberal blog. Have a look.

Poll Analysis: Dead Cat Bounce?
Comments from Left Field — ... votes even if Obama still manages to hold on to enough states to put him over 270. But before this trend could gain enough momentum to actually be worth reporting on, what we are seeing in a series of polls potentially is another widening of the race.  Gallup does show the race tightening by a very small amount, but Obama still maintains a clear lead. After that you have yesterday’s NBC/WSJ poll showing the race widening, just like FOX News, and Zogby. Taking these and other polls into consideration what we see is ...

TPM Track Composite: Obama Ahead By More Than Eight Points
TPM Election Central — ... to a 50%-46% Obama lead from yesterday. • ABC/Washington Post: Obama 54%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 53%-44% Obama lead yesterday. • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 47%-41% Obama lead from yesterday. • Research 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 41%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead from yesterday. • Zogby: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead ...

Stuff
Shakesville — In addition to the 10- and 14-point leads found in recent polling I mentioned last night, two more polls are showing big leads for Obama: Fox News' poll shows Obama leading by 9 points, and the new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll finds him leading by 9.6 points. The bad news is that Obama's not leading by that much in every state, or even the states in which he is leading—McCain will win some states, including some with lots of electoral votes, and it only takes one or two swing states to swing McCain's way for him to eke out a win. The good news is ...